Weekly Gold and Silver Futures Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold futures in the April contract are currently trading at 1,277 up around $21 an ounce with extreme volatility after selling off more than $30 in Thursday’s trade while settling last Friday at 1,293 going out this Friday afternoon around 1,276 finishing down $17 in a wild trading week. Gold futures topped out slightly above $1,300 as profit taking ensued as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average and I’m still recommending a bullish position and if you took that original trade place your stop loss below the 10 day low which now yesterday’s low at 1,252 risking around $24 from today’s price levels or $2,400 risk per contract plus slippage and commission.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I do think gold is now being used as a currency due to the fact that the Euro currency and many foreign currencies are absolutely falling out of bed as interest rates in many countries have gone negative so who wants to place money into a bank and lose money as investors now prefer gold which has no dividend but still it’s better than a negative return. Volatility in many of the commodity markets is very high at the current time especially the precious metals and I expect that to continue despite the fact that the U.S dollar hit an 11 year high continuing its secular bull market in my opinion as I do think 100 is on its way in the next several months as the United States economy is doing much better than any economy worldwide.

Gold futures have rallied from a contract low of 1,130 all the way up to about 1,310 in the last several months as money is finally starting to come out of the S&P 500 sending money flows back into the precious metals also sending high volatility which I think is here to stay especially with all of the worldwide problems
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

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Silver futures in the March contract are up $.50 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 17.30 an ounce settling last Friday at 18.30 finishing down about $1.00 for the trading week with extreme volatility as Thursday’s trade pushed silver lower by over a $1.25 as I’ve been recommending a bullish position in this market when prices broke above the 17 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss below yesterday’s low around 16.71 still risking around $.60 from today’s price levels.

Silver volatility is extremely high at the current time so make sure that you use the proper amount of contracts risking only 2% of your account balance as I like to trade the mini contract which is $10 a cent versus $50 a cent on the large contract as high volatility has also entered the S&P 500 and the currency markets in recent weeks.

The stop loss will remain at that level for the next 8 trading sessions so you’re going to have to be patient if you are long this market. As I talked about in previous blogs I believe silver is now being used as a currency due to the fact that interest rates around the world are so low that investors are looking at silver and gold as a currency replacing traditional paper currencies as nobody wants to own anything in Europe.

Many of the commodity markets continue to head lower however silver and gold are the only 2 commodities that I am bullish but the problem here is if the rest of the markets continue to head lower silver and gold gains could be limited so just place the proper stop loss and if we are stopped out look at another market that is starting to begin another trend.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Solid

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Mike Seerys Trading 101...."When Do You Enter A Trade"

What are your rules to initiate a trade on the long or short side of the commodity market? I have been asked this question many times throughout my career and my opinion is simply to buy on a 20-25 day high breakout in price on a closing basis only or sell on a 20-25 day low breakout to the downside also on a closing basis. Many times the price will break the 25 day high and sell off later in the day only to have your trade be negative very quickly.

I would rather buy the commodity at a higher price on the close because that gives me more confidence that the market has truly broken out. However there are more ways to skin a cat and this is not the only answer because some other trading systems might rely on different breakout rules that have also been reliable.

Remember always keeping a 1%-2% risk loss on any given trade therefore minimizing risks because the entry system I use always goes with the trend because I have learned over the course of time the trend is truly your friend in the long run. I also look for tight chart structure meaning a tight trading range over a period of time with relatively low volatility. I try to stay away from a crazy market that hit a 25 day high in 2 trading sessions versus the 25 high that actually took 25 days to create.

Get more of Mikes calls for this week including silver, wheat, oats, coffee and more....Just Click Here!

Free Video Series: Enjoy all of John Carters Options Videos.....Before it's to Late

In 2014 our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options changed the way traders look at trading options with his free and easy to understand videos and webinars that taught all of us how to put his methods to work.

In February John is preparing to do it all again by bringing us a new series and most likely all of his current videos will be taken offline. So we want to make sure you get to watch them all while you can.

Just click on the titles to access videos......

    My Favorite ways to Trade Options on ETF’s

    What the Market Makers Don’t Want You to Know

    High Frequency Trading….the effect the Rise of the Machines has on ...

    What's Behind the BIG Trade, How to Grow a Small Account into a Big...

Make sure to also get John's free eBook "Understanding Options" > Just Click Here

See you in the markets!

Ray C. Parrish

aka the Crude Oil Trader

Weekly Gold and Silver Market Recap with Mike Seery for Week Ending January 23rd

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back with his weekly futures market recap. As always he includes where he is placing stops to lock in profits we have all been enjoying if you have been following Mike this year.

Gold futures in the February contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday in New York at 1,277 while currently trading at 1,288 an ounce down about $12 this afternoon as I have been recommending a bullish position when prices cracked 1,245 and if you took that trade place your stop at the 10 day low which in Monday’s trade will be 1,217 still risking about $70 or $7,000 per contract plus slippage and commission, however the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week.

Gold prices hit a 5 month high this week and now is being considered as a currency and not a commodity as nobody wants to own any of the foreign currencies especially the Euro currency which was down another 100 points today sending the U.S dollar to an 11 year high as countries like Yemen are collapsing right in front of our eyes and many other countries are getting crushed by the low crude oil prices so investors are seeking a safe haven in gold despite today’s negative tape.

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Silver futures in the March contract are slightly lower this Friday afternoon in New York after settling last week at 17.75 while currently trading at 18.30 up around $.50 for the trading week continuing its bullish trend as prices are trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average hitting a 4 month high as investors are fleeing out of the foreign currencies and putting money back into the precious metals at the current time.

I’ve been recommending a bullish position in silver for several weeks when prices broke above 17.00 an ounce and if you took that trade make sure you place your stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands at 16.43 currently risking around $2 or $10,000 per contract plus slippage and commission as silver is very large contract controlling 5,000 ounces, however that stop loss will be raised on a daily basis as the chart structure will improve dramatically come next week.

Silver is now considered as a currency in my opinion and not a commodity as nobody wants to own any currencies except for the U.S dollar sending money flows back into the precious metals as I think silver prices could test $20 here in the short term as I’m very pessimistic many of the commodity sectors except for silver and gold at the current time as I think prices continue to climb despite what the U.S dollar does as short term demand has certainly come back into this market in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Here is more of Mikes calls this week on silver, oats, hogs, corn, soybeans and more....Just Click Here!

Weekly Gold and Silver Futures Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is out with his calls for this week and he includes some of reliable rules to protect our profits.

Gold futures in the February contract are slightly lower this Friday afternoon in New York after settling last Friday at 1,216 currently trading at 1,260 as I’m currently recommending a long futures position while placing your stop loss below the 10 day low which is around 1,209 risking around $50 or $1,650 on a mini contract plus slippage and commission. Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 5 month high as the chart structure will also start to improve on a daily basis starting next week as the market has caught fire recently due to worldwide problems as money is pouring back into the precious metals and out of the S&P 500 in the beginning of 2015.

Yesterday the Swiss government announced they will let the Swiss Franc float rocketing that currency up while sending shock waves through the bond and currency markets and it certainly looks to me that problems are here to stay here for a while as Europe is a mess and this could push gold up to the next resistance level of 1,300 – 1,320 so take advantage of any price dip while maintaining the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as gold has finally turned into a short-term bull market once again.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Improving

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Silver futures are trading above their 20 day but right at their 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 16.12 while currently trading at 17.05 an ounce as I’m recommending a bullish position in silver while placing your stop below the 10 day low which is at 16.11 risking around $.90 or $4,500 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure will also improve on a daily basis starting next week. The next major level of resistance is between 17.35 – 17.50 and if that level is broken I would have to think that silver prices have a chance to reach $20 here in the short term as once again money is flowing into the precious metals and out of the stock market for the 1st time in several years as investors are thinking that silver may have been overdone to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets continue to head lower as there is weak demand throughout many sectors due to the fact that the U.S dollar is at a 9 year high while silver & gold prices have also been in bearish trends until recently, however with what’s going on in France and Isis running havoc throughout the Mideast people are finally looking at the precious metals as a safe haven once again so the rest of the commodity markets can go lower with gold and silver still moving higher but play by the rules as the chart structure meets criteria in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Improving

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Gold Was Up 73% Last Year!

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

Dmitry sipped his coffee drink at his favorite café in Moscow, flipping through the newspaper in front of him. It was full of bad news: currency troubles, ongoing sanctions from the West, rising inflation, and more.

But he ignored all that. He turned to the investment section and began to scan the page, looking for the latest price of one specific investment. He went past the headline that screamed Russia’s inflation rate was up to 11.4% last year, as well as the article detailing the ruble’s debilitating 46.5% fall. He knew all those things and had experienced them firsthand.

He went directly to the page that quoted the price of gold in rubles.

And there it was. And this time, it wasn’t just a short price quote, but a full article on the topic of gold, starting with a headline that warmed his heart.

“Gold Price in Rubles Rises 73% in 2014”

The article detailed how gold had soared last year due to the depreciation of the ruble. What especially pleased him was that gold rose more than the ruble fell. It also outpaced the rise in inflation.

The article included a chart of the last six weeks’ price movement, during which the ruble had taken an especially ugly drop.

Dmitry wasn’t surprised to read that it wasn’t just the gold price in rubles that was up last year…..

The price of gold rose against ALL currencies in 2014—except the US dollar. Yes, gold was up in the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, British pound, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Chinese renminbi, Indian rupee, Swedish krona, Brazilian real, Israeli shekel, and South Korean won.

Even more interesting was that gold outperformed most stock markets around the world…..

Most investors outside North America not only saw their currency lose value but also lost money in their stock market. His fellow Russians were hit especially hard. Whoever owned gold, though, had avoided these debilitating losses and was actually sitting on a profit.

The article concluded by congratulating those with the foresight to buy gold, which, unfortunately, didn’t include many of his fellow citizens—but it did include him.

Dmitry has every right to feel pleased with himself. While inflation raged all around him, the currency fell through the floor, and global crises remained escalated, his investment in gold had done exactly what it was supposed to do: protect him against currency and monetary calamity. In fact, he’d gained more with gold than he lost in ruble purchasing power.

He’d read warnings that this could happen—warnings others had dismissed as the ravings of loony gold bugs. He had been skeptical, frankly, and it hadn’t happened exactly as he thought it would, but now he sure was glad he’d decided to play it safe and bought some gold as insurance.

He wondered what those in North America thought about this phenomenon… Did they see the writing on the global economic wall—or did they imagine they were immune because their stock market had risen so much while gold remained weak in their currency? Did they really believe their central bankers were wizards endowed with supernatural powers others lacked? Didn’t they remember Ben Bernanke insisting in 2007 and 2008 that there was no crisis and that everything was under control?

It seemed to Dmitry that many of them were kidding themselves, because he knew that at some point, the very thing that happened to inflation rates and currency values in his country could happen to theirs. And how gold would respond—as he now knew firsthand.

Like him, sensible Americans who bought gold while it was on sale wouldn’t know the timing but would be prepared for the inevitable outcome of the currency destroying policies their central bank had adopted, just like all the others. He hoped they saw it coming and envied their chance to take advantage of relatively low prices.

Dmitry could hardly wait for tomorrow, the day the January BIG GOLD would be released. And it wouldn’t be just any issue, but a 50 page blockbuster edition that interviewed 17 experts on precious metals and included two actionable steps to kickstart 2015: a discount on international bullion storage and a new recommended stock, one that Jeff Clark described as a must-own company that came with both safety and high potential. He hopes his friends check it out.

The article Gold Was Up 73% Last Year! was originally published at casey research 

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Weekly Gold Market Summary with Mike Seery

Gold futures in the February contract witnessed another extremely volatile trading session with another $20 trading range currently trading up $4 at 1,188 after trading as low as 1,167 earlier in the session as the U.S dollar hit another multiyear high pressuring many the commodity prices, however bottom feeders appeared thinking that gold was overdone to the downside.

Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market waiting for better chart structure to develop as the market is just too volatile in my opinion, however if you are bearish this market I would sell at today’s price while placing my stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,210 risking around $23 or $2,300 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is relatively solid at the current time.

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Gold futures remain in a long term downtrend as investors are still putting money into the S&P 500 and out of the precious metals especially with a strong U.S dollar which looks to head higher in my opinion and with worldwide problems cooling down especially with Russia there’s really no reason to own gold at the current time.

Gold futures traded over the last 2 months in a price range between $1,140-$1,240 and now around mid-range so I’m waiting for a trend to develop as traders are waiting next Friday’s monthly unemployment report which should send even more volatility into this market so make sure if you are in the futures market that you use the proper amount contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as this market is high risk.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT


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