2013 Forecast – Tis The Season To Drink & Own Coffee

It's always time for coffee, but today Chris Vermeulen shares his coffee trade with us.....


Coffee prices have fallen more than 50% since 2010 which can be seen through the coffee exchange traded fund symbol: JO. This investment seeks to replicate the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in coffee futures contracts as well as the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.



Weekly, Hourly and Seasonal chart of JO Coffee Exchange Traded Fund

The top weekly chart shows my price targets for 2013 while the lower hourly chart shows strong on balance volume meaning big money is slowly building a long position in coffee. The small white chart is the seasonal chart of coffee futures showing prices historically rise from January–March, then a correction followed by another rally in to May.

Coffee prices are still in a down trend but it looks as though the end is near and if played properly it could provide up to 100% return on your capital in 2013.



Coffee Futures Monthly Long Term Chart

This chart gives you a bird’s eye view on where coffee prices are trading in the big picture scheme of things.



JO Coffee ETF VS. SBUX Starbucks Share Price:

Lower coffee bean prices has helped lift share prices of coffee companies like Starbucks: SBUX, Coffee Holdings Co.: JVA, Coffee Roasters Inc.: GMCR, and PEET’s Coffee: PEET. But cheap coffee may not be around that much longer and the lower earnings for coffee brewers may be closer than most may think.



2013 Caffeine Conclusion:

In short, I have been watching coffee prices for a bottoming pattern for months and I now feel it is getting really close to a bottom and it could be a great trade and investment in the new year. As for companies like Starbucks it will likely not have much of an affect on the bottom line until the second half of the year though it is something to keep an eye on during earning seasons.

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Chris Vermeulen

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Mid week trades to focus on .... Gold, SPX, U.S. Dollar and Natural Gas

Yesterday’s price action was very bearish yet again and we are patiently waiting for a counter trend pullback to happen. While three are some good looking plays out there I really do not want to get long until the market clears the air with a bout or three of strong selling. Remember 3:4 stocks follow the market and the odds of picking a commodity or ETF that bucks the trend is unlikely.

SP500 / Broad Stock Market

We have seen a bug run up in stocks this month and things are looking a little long in the teeth. A large number of stocks are trading above their upper Bollinger band and the broad market is testing that key resistance level also. Typically when a Bollinger band is reached we see price reverse for a couple days at minimum.

While the equities market is in a new uptrend as seen by the moving averages I pullback seems imminient. The last two days has formed reversal candles and are pointing to lower prices.



Dollar Index Hourly Chart

This chart shows a possible bottom forming in the dollar pointing to a 3-8 day pullback in stocks.



Gold Futures Hourly Chart



Natural Gas Hourly Chart



Morning Trading Conclusion

Looking at the charts on several different time frames, not all shown here, technical analysis shows a pullback in stocks is highly likely. This is what we are currently positioned for.

The US dollars downward momentum is slowing and if it can find a bid today it should trigger strong selling in both stocks and commodities. Gold and silver are down sharply along with miners.

We have been watching natural gas for a few months and know that it has been trading inverse to what stocks do. This bodes well for a bounce in natural gas if stocks start a sell off. That being said, natural gas is trading at a key tipping point that could spark a very fast and hard drop. This knife can fall at a speed that will take a slice out of your trading account if not traded and managed properly (tiny position and use of a stop). I actually like natural gas the more it moves down and could issue a buy alert on it today or this week. I would like to see volume decline at this level showing the momentum is slowing......

Chris Vermeulen

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Is this "an emerging low" in gold stocks?

Gold stocks have been in another recent downtrend, which makes sense during a “wave 2″ correction in GOLD.

If we review the GDX ETF for Gold Stocks we can see a possible triple bottom formation. This one though looks bullish for a reversal trade to the upside near term as GOLD forms a C wave bottom.

This triple bottom looks like a series of higher lows should the 43-44 GDX ranges hold near term. The MACD line is still trending down, but in very oversold territory as in the prior two lows that had massive rallies.

Ways to play a reversal for the aggressive stock investor is NUGT ETF, which is a 300% long leveraged ETF based loosely on the GDX ETF (1x).

The specific timing of entering NUGT is of course tricky and best saved for our ATP trading service. That said, assuming GOLD does bottom at 1681 or 1631 near term, the GOLD stocks tend to lead the metal higher.… so they will bottom BEFORE the metal.

Here is the GDX long term chart showing what looks like an emerging Tradeable low...




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What the VIX Term Structure is Saying About the Fiscal Cliff

The past few weeks have been full of a constant barrage of press conferences and public statements from the charlatans in Washington D.C. Politicians cannot pass up a chance to get in front of the cameras and the media has used the “fiscal cliff” as a mechanism to scare average Americans further about their future.

Interestingly enough, amid all of the nonsense that has been going on stocks have remained resilient. I think sometimes its important to just step back away from the media’s noise and just look at some price charts for more clarity. The S&P 500 Index has been trading in a relatively tight range now for over 6 trading sessions as shown here by the great staff at The Technical Traders.com......

Read "What the VIX Term Structure is Saying About the Fiscal Cliff"



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Gold Should Be Nearing A Major Bottom

The recent rally in Gold took the metal from the 1620’s to roughly 1800 per ounce before the ensuing corrective action began. Back around October 20th we warned our readers about a likely “ wave 2” correction in Gold and we had several reasons for that warnings. One of the biggest concerns we had was that the sentiment surveys were running very hot at the time. The percentage of professional advisors polled that were bullish on GOLD was 88%, with 7% neutral and only 7% bearish. Elliott Wave Theory is the foundation of our work, though we are sure to mix in other clues and elements to “fact check” our reads. When you see sentiment readings that high, coupled with a $180 rally leading up to those readings, you can begin to look for clues of a top.

The other warning signal we noted was the MACD signal which had crossed south and was a topping warning signal to get out of GOLD for intermediate traders. At the time, we surmised that a “wave 2” correction in sentiment, and therefore price was required to work off the overbought conditions. The first level attacked the 1681 areas roughly and then a “B” wave rally to 1751 roughly ensued. Wave 2’s are made up of a 3 wave pattern, A down- B up- and C down to finish. It appears that GOLD is now in the final C wave down in sentiment to complete the correction pattern.

Clues for the “C” wave include the Goldman Sachs quasi-bearish 2013 GOLD forecast that came out today. In addition, the media attempting to explain the drop in GOLD as being related to stronger than expected economic indicators or fiscal cliff negotiations, neither of which make any sense at all.

We expect GOLD therefore to complete the C wave correction at 1631 or 1681 specifically. There are Fibonacci fractal relationships to the first leg down (The A wave) at those levels, and they tend to repeat themselves in terms of crowd behavior. At the 1681 level we have the C wave equal to 61.8% of the A wave amplitude. At 1631 we have a more traditional C wave equal to the A wave. In either event, look for a washout low in GOLD occurring at anytime near term, and for traders to start scaling in long.

Below is the GLD ETF chart showing the two most likely bottoms for the precious metal, one of which already qualifies as of today’s trading:

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Gold, Silver and Miners in Stage 1 Accumulation Mode

We don’t hear much about gold and silver anymore on the news. This time last year you could not go 5 minutes without a TV or radio station talking about them. Why is this? Simple really, precious metals have been building a Stage 1 Basing Pattern for the last 12 months. This boring sideways trading range is how the market gets most of those long holders out of an investment before it starts another move up. The saying is “If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wait you out”.

We all know time in money so the above statement makes a lot of sense doesn’t it? Instead of having your money sitting in an investment that has clearly displayed a large sideways range with month and possibly years before any significant breakout will occur, why would you want their money in it doing nothing? There are other opportunities which you could be putting your money into that could generate more gains until the precious metals sector sets up with a high probability trading pattern.

The good news is that gold, silver and precious metal miner stocks are forming a very large Stage 1 Accumulation pattern on the weekly chart. This points to a multi month rally in prices if they breakout above our resistance levels.

Gold & Gold Miner Stocks Weekly Analysis

The chart below shows a lot of analysis and to the untrained eye this may look messy and confusing, so take your time to review it. In short, what we are showing are sideways price patterns using the previous highs and lows for support and resistance levels. The analysis shows the shift in prices from bearish (down), to Neutral (sideways). The exciting part about this pattern is that a new bull market should emerge if our analysis is correct. Now, we are not talking about 5 -10% move here, we are talking about a multi month and possibly a year long rally in precious metals that could allow some individuals to retire early if played properly.

A break above our red dotted resistance lines should trigger aggressive buying in gold miners along with physical gold bullion.

In the past month we have been giving out some of my Stage 1 trading ideas which have generated some decent gains for those who follow along. All but one have generated gains with FSLR 12.5%, FB 12%, RIMM 54%, AAPL 5%, TLT 2.5%, XLU 1.5%, and KOL down -5.2%.

Silver & Silver Miner Stocks Weekly Analysis

This chart of silver and silver miner stocks (SIL), shows a very similar pattern to that of its big shiny sister (Yellow Gold). Silver carries a lot more risk because of its industrial usage. Also this commodity is thinly traded and can move very quickly on a daily basis compared to gold. Because of these quick price movements it has attracted a lot of speculative money which also has increased the volatility. More often than not silver will move 2-3 times more on a percentage bases than that of yellow gold.

Battle of the Miner ETFs Weekly Performance

This chart compares three precious metals miner ETFS (GDX – Gold Miners, SIL – Silver Miners, NUGT 3x Leveraged Gold Miners).

Silver miners have held up the best because the herd saw how big the move was a year ago and are front running the next potential rally. But, depending on how you read the charts and sentiment it may be pointing to the dormant gold miners for a bigger than expected rally. But debating which one will breakout and run the most is a conversation/debate of its own and even I can argue both sides. The safe play is that even if gold miners (GDX & GDXJ) underperform the silver miners (SIL), the NUGT which is 3x leveraged gold miners should be the same if not outperform silver miners.

Precious Metals & Miners Trading Conclusion

In short, we favor trading the miners over physical bullion simply because the charts show much more profit potential than if one was to buy the bullion exchange traded funds GLD and SLV.

The market seems to be setting up for some very large moves in 2013 and members of our trading newsletter should do very well. Be sure to join and follow along at The Gold & Oil Guy.com



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