Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold's recovery from extended further to as high as 1218.5 last week before turning sideway. Further rise remains in favor as long as 1197.3 minor support holds and gold would possibly target a retest on 1249.7 high. On the downside, however, below 1197.3 will indicate that recovery has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1166 support and below.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1249.7 is deep, gold is still holding on to 1170.7 cluster support as well as 55 days EMA (now at 1170.2). Hence, there is no change in the bullish view yet and the long term up trend is still in favor to continue after completing the current pull back. Break of 1249.7 will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next. However, note that sustained trading below 55 EMA will opens up a few bearish possibilities. The least bearish case is that fall from 1249.7 is the third leg of the three wave consolidation from 1227.5 and would target a retest on 1044.5 support next.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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