Nicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy for ETF Securities, expects choppy trading in the gold market to continue but thinks that fundamentals support higher prices over the long term.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Here's a FREE Trend Analysis for Gold and GLD
-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Tuesday
+20.....Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending July 3rd
+30.....New 3 Month High in June
+75.....Total Score
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of gold ETF GLD
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Brian Hicks: Gold's Rally Isn't Over
Brian Hicks, co-manager of the U.S. Global Investors Global Resources Fund, says despite gold's minor correction, prices will head higher during the summer.
The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010
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The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010
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New Video: Does This One Chart Line Spell Doom for the Markets?
In our new video we explain what this line is and how it can play out in the short and longer term time frames. As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. We would really like to get your feedback on this powerful formation and what you see for the markets ahead.
Watch Does This One Chart Line Spell Doom for the Markets?
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Sunday, June 27, 2010
New Video: Do You Know About Market Divergences?
In this short educational trading video, we will show you the tools we use to spot market divergences. We will be using the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) which was developed by our friend Gerald Appel.
As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Please feel free to leave a comment on this or any of our other videos.
Watch "Do You Know About Market Divergences?"
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Saturday, June 26, 2010
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday June 26th
In the bigger picture, at this point, gold's long term up trend is still in progress and should be targeting 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 166 support will argue that an important top is formed and will turn outlook bearish for a major correction.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010
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Thursday, June 24, 2010
No Surprise....Peter Schiff Wants A Gold Standard
Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital and author of "How an Economy Grows And Why It Crashes", reveals why he wants the return of the gold standard and how he's buying gold.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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Monday, June 21, 2010
New Video: How To Use Fibonacci Retracements
We put together this five minute lesson on Fibonacci trading and how we use this important tool to determine turning points in the market. Like all tools, it has its flaws and should be used with other complementary tools like our "Trade Triangle" technology.
As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We hope you have the time to comment and share if this video helped you understand this important trading tool, or how you're already using it.
We hope you enjoy this brief lesson and it helps you understand how to use this important tool.
Just click here to watch "How To Use Fibonacci Retracements"
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Sunday, June 20, 2010
Dow, Gold & Crude Oil are Breaking Out or Bouncing
Over the years we have seen the stock market make some pretty exciting moves for share holders. This year alone there have been some interesting events unfold causing wild market swings which most of us did not think could happen. Things like countries going bankrupt and the May flash crash. Also the BP Oil well leak which looks as though its about to kill not only businesses around the world but a large population of animals and fish which our planet will never be able to get back… It’s been a crazy year!
It sure would be nice if the financial situations between all he countries could be resolved, and if we could have some proper regulations on banks and the financial system to minimize fraud and manipulation. From the looks of everything we have a few years still before things get sorted out, fixed and some what stabilized.
Below are some charts showing where the Dow, Gold and Oil are currently trading and my thoughts on them.
DIA – Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF – Daily Chart
The past 12 years we have seen the DJIA go through some large bull and bear markets providing those with trading experience to generate large profits in both the bull and bear markets.
Recently we have seen the DJIA pullback and test the key pivot point and has started to bounce. Although this price action is positive I have my doubts about another bull market rally because of how the chart looks. I focus most of my analysis on chart patterns, volume and market internals. These allow me to monitor the overall heath of the market on a daily, week and monthly basis. Using these techniques I am able to pull money from the market consistently.
This year we saw some extremely heavy selling in May which could have been strong enough to shift the trend from an up trend to a down trend. I call these large volume candles Get Ready Spikes. If they are green then we are looking for higher prices but when they are red it means distribution is starting and lower prices could start to form in the coming months.
The DIA chart below looks to be forming a very large head and shoulders pattern which is currently trading near the top of the right shoulder. This pattern is very bearish and points to much lower prices in the next couple years if the major support level (neckline) is broken.
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart
The chart of gold shows the same cup and handle pattern which I have been talking about for a while now. Last week the price of gold made a new high breaking out of this pattern. We could see the price of gold start to work its way up to the $1400-1500 level over the next 3-6 months which calculates to $140-150 on the GLD etf.
USO – Crude Oil Fund – Daily Chart
USO oil fund has been trend down for a couple months and recently put in a nice bounce from the May low. I feel as though oil is forming a bear flag and could head lower in the coming weeks. Until it breaks the key resistance level traders must be cautious if they have any long trades right now.
Weekend Dow, Gold and Oil Trading Conclusion:
In short, I’m bullish on stocks for the short term and think we could retest the April high in the next month or two. But after that the market could roll over and from there we could see much lower prices. Or we could see the indexes breakout and start another leg higher… During volatile times like we are in now… we must trade with caution until the overall health of the market clearly indicates the direction of stocks. Until then focusing on low risk setups and taking profits quickly is the safest trading strategy.
Gold looks to be setup for a strong move higher. I am hoping for another dip to shake out some investors before it continues its march upwards. Oil on the other hand is trading near a key resistance level. Only time will tell if it can break through and start a rally. If not then we will see the market struggle.
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It sure would be nice if the financial situations between all he countries could be resolved, and if we could have some proper regulations on banks and the financial system to minimize fraud and manipulation. From the looks of everything we have a few years still before things get sorted out, fixed and some what stabilized.
Below are some charts showing where the Dow, Gold and Oil are currently trading and my thoughts on them.
DIA – Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF – Daily Chart
The past 12 years we have seen the DJIA go through some large bull and bear markets providing those with trading experience to generate large profits in both the bull and bear markets.
Recently we have seen the DJIA pullback and test the key pivot point and has started to bounce. Although this price action is positive I have my doubts about another bull market rally because of how the chart looks. I focus most of my analysis on chart patterns, volume and market internals. These allow me to monitor the overall heath of the market on a daily, week and monthly basis. Using these techniques I am able to pull money from the market consistently.
This year we saw some extremely heavy selling in May which could have been strong enough to shift the trend from an up trend to a down trend. I call these large volume candles Get Ready Spikes. If they are green then we are looking for higher prices but when they are red it means distribution is starting and lower prices could start to form in the coming months.
The DIA chart below looks to be forming a very large head and shoulders pattern which is currently trading near the top of the right shoulder. This pattern is very bearish and points to much lower prices in the next couple years if the major support level (neckline) is broken.
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart
The chart of gold shows the same cup and handle pattern which I have been talking about for a while now. Last week the price of gold made a new high breaking out of this pattern. We could see the price of gold start to work its way up to the $1400-1500 level over the next 3-6 months which calculates to $140-150 on the GLD etf.
USO – Crude Oil Fund – Daily Chart
USO oil fund has been trend down for a couple months and recently put in a nice bounce from the May low. I feel as though oil is forming a bear flag and could head lower in the coming weeks. Until it breaks the key resistance level traders must be cautious if they have any long trades right now.
Weekend Dow, Gold and Oil Trading Conclusion:
In short, I’m bullish on stocks for the short term and think we could retest the April high in the next month or two. But after that the market could roll over and from there we could see much lower prices. Or we could see the indexes breakout and start another leg higher… During volatile times like we are in now… we must trade with caution until the overall health of the market clearly indicates the direction of stocks. Until then focusing on low risk setups and taking profits quickly is the safest trading strategy.
Gold looks to be setup for a strong move higher. I am hoping for another dip to shake out some investors before it continues its march upwards. Oil on the other hand is trading near a key resistance level. Only time will tell if it can break through and start a rally. If not then we will see the market struggle.
Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trading Signals.
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Friday, June 18, 2010
New Video: 4 Ways To Look At Gold
In today's video on gold, we share with you the 4 instruments that we are looking at and share with you our projections for the spot gold market.
As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Please feel free to leave a message and let us know what you think of the video and the current direction of the gold market.
Watch "4 Ways To Look At Gold"
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Monday, June 14, 2010
New Video: Japanese Candlesticks and The Gold Market
We invite you to take a look at this new video with no registration and no charge. And whether you agree, disagree, or just want to comment on this video, please feel free to do so.
Watch "Japanese Candlesticks and The Gold Market"
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Sunday, June 13, 2010
SP500, Oil and Gold Trading at Resistance Levels
Last week we saw the financial market including commodities move higher which was great to see. But the recent run up has brought both equities and commodities to their key resistance levels. With Gold, Oil and the SP500 trading near key resistance points we will most likely have some sharp movements this week so buckle up tight!
Gold – Daily Chart
Gold Future Prices continue to form the large cup and handle pattern and is trading near resistance. This week I figure we will see gold make a move up or break the dotted support trend line and drop towards the blue support level. I continue to wait for a low risk setup for gold.
Crude Oil – Daily Chart
Crude oil has been trending down for a couple months and recently rebounded to test its resistance level. It looks as though oil is forming a bear flag which generally means we should see lower prices in the near future. But another $1-2 move up could trigger a surge of buyers if this resistance level is broken which is why this week should be volatile… it’s a 50/50 chance for commodities to either rally or sell off.
SP500 – Daily Chart
The SP500 has posted some decent gains the past couple days but it’s still no in the clear just yet… Most technicians are looking for a move above 1100-1110 area with heavy volume before they start to commit serious money to the long side.
It looks and feels as though the market could drop or rally very sharply from here and if you are caught on the wrong side of the move then it’s going to really hurt the trading account. During times like this when the market is at a critical pivot point with increased volatility levels along with mixed market internals I tend to stay on the side lines until some dust settles.
Weekend Gold, Oil and SPX Trading Conclusion
In short, everything is trading near key pivot points giving mixed signals for prices to rally or drop. My analysis is pointing to a small move up Monday morning to break Fridays high followed by some selling late Monday or Tuesday. How much of a move down I don’t know for sure but there is potential for a 3-4% move. On the flip side if buyers step in pushing the price above 1100 then we could see a surge higher of 3-4%…
Very dicey times right now to be trying to pick a direction, which is why it’s best to wait for the risk level to diminish before getting involved or at least trade a small position with a protective stop if you feel confident in a direct.
Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's "Low Risk ETF Trading Signals".
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Gold – Daily Chart
Gold Future Prices continue to form the large cup and handle pattern and is trading near resistance. This week I figure we will see gold make a move up or break the dotted support trend line and drop towards the blue support level. I continue to wait for a low risk setup for gold.
Crude Oil – Daily Chart
Crude oil has been trending down for a couple months and recently rebounded to test its resistance level. It looks as though oil is forming a bear flag which generally means we should see lower prices in the near future. But another $1-2 move up could trigger a surge of buyers if this resistance level is broken which is why this week should be volatile… it’s a 50/50 chance for commodities to either rally or sell off.
SP500 – Daily Chart
The SP500 has posted some decent gains the past couple days but it’s still no in the clear just yet… Most technicians are looking for a move above 1100-1110 area with heavy volume before they start to commit serious money to the long side.
It looks and feels as though the market could drop or rally very sharply from here and if you are caught on the wrong side of the move then it’s going to really hurt the trading account. During times like this when the market is at a critical pivot point with increased volatility levels along with mixed market internals I tend to stay on the side lines until some dust settles.
Weekend Gold, Oil and SPX Trading Conclusion
In short, everything is trading near key pivot points giving mixed signals for prices to rally or drop. My analysis is pointing to a small move up Monday morning to break Fridays high followed by some selling late Monday or Tuesday. How much of a move down I don’t know for sure but there is potential for a 3-4% move. On the flip side if buyers step in pushing the price above 1100 then we could see a surge higher of 3-4%…
Very dicey times right now to be trying to pick a direction, which is why it’s best to wait for the risk level to diminish before getting involved or at least trade a small position with a protective stop if you feel confident in a direct.
Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's "Low Risk ETF Trading Signals".
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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday June 13th
In the bigger picture, at this point, gold's up trend is still in favor to continue towards 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next. However, upside momentum is not too convincing with bearish divergence condition in daily MCAD. Beak of 1166 support will indicate that whole rise from 1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this support instead.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Check out the new "Trend TV"
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Friday, June 11, 2010
New Video: The Battle of the Bull and Bears
In our new video, we outline some of the key levels that we think are important in the S&P 500 market. Volume continues to to be light and that is why the markets are moving around and are so volatile at the moment.
This is our first video this week, but expect many more as the market rotates. Don't miss our special risk free trial offer to MarketClub, my premium charting service, offered at the end of this video.
Just click here to watch "The Battle of the Bull and Bears"
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David Morgan: Gold's Record High Was A Blip
David Morgan, founder of Silver-Investor.com, reveals how he interpreted gold's record high and argues that gold prices will see more consolidation.
Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule
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Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule
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Thursday, June 10, 2010
SPX, Gold & Oil on the VERGE of Something BIG
Market volatility continues to shake things up making it profitable for traders who are quick to spotting key reversal points, manage risk and taking profits before it evaporates. On Tuesday we saw the market go up and down more than I have seen in a long time… It moved over 5% as it trended up then down in 1% increments as shown in the chart below. Members of FuturesTradingSignals were able to capture a 1-2% gain which may not sound like much but when trading the leveraged ETFs, Futures or CFD’s we are making 4-200% profit within a few hours. That being said this type of price action is proof that the market just does not know which way to go and why trades must be very quick to enter and exit positions.
The SP500 daily etf chart shows my simple volume analysis during market corrections. During the early stages of a trend, pullbacks are quick and simple. But as a trend matures we start to see corrections become much more complex. We first saw the simple 1 wave corrections in 2009, then we saw a much deeper 3 wave correction which was enough to shake most retail (average Joe’s) out of the market before heading higher, and now it looks as though we are headed into a complex 5 wave correction which should be enough to shake out the majority again.
It’s important to note that the longer a trend lasts the larger the corrections/shake outs must be in order to get everyone out. From what I am reading and seeing everywhere online are doom and gloom scenarios. In my opinion this is good. One more leg down should be enough to shake everyone before we see a nice 10-20% rally. Once we see that bounce/rally then we can reanalyze the market to see if we are headed back up to test the 2010 highs or if its just a bear market rally. In the end it does not matter as we play both the long and short side of the market.
Gold ETF continues to unfold as planned. We caught a good chunk of the recent rally and are now in cash waiting for another low risk entry point in the coming days or weeks.
Crude oil Fund (USO) has been struggling to stay up the past 2 months. As you can see the chart below it’s trading at a key resistance level and at this point it could go either way… I don’t like to get involved in trades when they look to be a 50/50 probability of going each direction. If anything I would think oil will head back down as the US dollar continues its strong rally.
Mid-Week ETF Trading Conclusion
In short, the broad market is in a down trend and selling volume continues to rise. Investors around the world continue to accumulate gold and the US dollar as they seem to be the safe havens for the time being. Oil is also in a down trend and trading at resistance which means we should see lower prices for oil and oil companies and this will weigh heavily on the equities market.
Cash is king and during times of uncertainty that’s for sure… It is very comforting to know we are in cash most of the time and only get involved with the market when there is a low risk, high probability setup on the charts.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's trading analysis and trading alerts check out The Gold And Oil Guy .Com
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The SP500 daily etf chart shows my simple volume analysis during market corrections. During the early stages of a trend, pullbacks are quick and simple. But as a trend matures we start to see corrections become much more complex. We first saw the simple 1 wave corrections in 2009, then we saw a much deeper 3 wave correction which was enough to shake most retail (average Joe’s) out of the market before heading higher, and now it looks as though we are headed into a complex 5 wave correction which should be enough to shake out the majority again.
It’s important to note that the longer a trend lasts the larger the corrections/shake outs must be in order to get everyone out. From what I am reading and seeing everywhere online are doom and gloom scenarios. In my opinion this is good. One more leg down should be enough to shake everyone before we see a nice 10-20% rally. Once we see that bounce/rally then we can reanalyze the market to see if we are headed back up to test the 2010 highs or if its just a bear market rally. In the end it does not matter as we play both the long and short side of the market.
Gold ETF continues to unfold as planned. We caught a good chunk of the recent rally and are now in cash waiting for another low risk entry point in the coming days or weeks.
Crude oil Fund (USO) has been struggling to stay up the past 2 months. As you can see the chart below it’s trading at a key resistance level and at this point it could go either way… I don’t like to get involved in trades when they look to be a 50/50 probability of going each direction. If anything I would think oil will head back down as the US dollar continues its strong rally.
Mid-Week ETF Trading Conclusion
In short, the broad market is in a down trend and selling volume continues to rise. Investors around the world continue to accumulate gold and the US dollar as they seem to be the safe havens for the time being. Oil is also in a down trend and trading at resistance which means we should see lower prices for oil and oil companies and this will weigh heavily on the equities market.
Cash is king and during times of uncertainty that’s for sure… It is very comforting to know we are in cash most of the time and only get involved with the market when there is a low risk, high probability setup on the charts.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's trading analysis and trading alerts check out The Gold And Oil Guy .Com
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Wednesday, June 9, 2010
How Safe Is Your Gold ETF?
Physically backed gold ETFs are superior to futures backed ETFs.
Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!
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Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!
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Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Gold Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening
Silver closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July renews last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 17.080 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 18.735 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 18.735. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 18.890. First support is Monday's low crossing at 17.195. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 17.080.
The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.70 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.28. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.70.
How to Take Money and Emotion Out of The Gold Market
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New Training Video: Stock Market "Profit Pockets"
* 4 of them were recently discovered by a 35+ year market veteran...
....and he's recording some brand new training videos that show you what they look like, how they work together, and how you can spot them on your own. The first training video is done, just click here to see his new training website.
Pay close attention to the chart that's displayed early on in the training video that outlines these 4 "profit pockets", which are identified by these custom methods designed to "pinpoint" each one:
* The Profit Pipeline Method...
* The Trend Validator Method...
* The Velocity Method...
* The Countertrend Cash Method...
I'm really excited about these 4 additional ways to pull more profit potential out of almost ANY stock chart, because they can complement any existing method you're currently using...
And that just gives you even MORE of an edge over those traders who DON'T know about these techniques.
These training videos likely will NOT be online for long, so make sure you watch & take notes here:
Good Trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Stock Market Club
P.S. Whenever this 35+ year market veteran releases complimentary training videos, I PAY ATTENTION because the "on the house" information he just "gives away" is often worth more than many training courses you'd have to pay for. So, don't take
this training lightly and pay close attention to what he teaches. Your portfolio will thank you for it later.
Watch New Training Video: Stock Market "Profit Pockets"
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Monday, June 7, 2010
Gold, Silver and Index Commentary For Monday Evening
Silver futures closed up 84.6 cents at $18.145 an ounce today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a fresh four week low early on. Prices also scored a big and bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart today as the bulls quickly regained upside technical momentum.
The U.S. stock indexes closed lower today, in the wake of last Friday's weak U.S. jobs data and ongoing jitters coming out of the European Union. Stock index bears have the overall near term technical advantage and have now regained fresh downside technical momentum.
Have You Missed The Bull Run in Gold? Maybe Not!
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Egon von Gruyerz: Gold Could Hit $7,000
The "real move" in gold is to come, predicted Egon von Gruyerz, founder of GoldSwitzerland.com, Monday. He sees the inflation adjusted price of gold rising to $7,000 an ounce in the future on inflation and tells CNBC it could go higher if the world encounters hyperinflation. "Gold is at this point not a bubble," he added.
Are Gold Prices Manipulated?
Chris Powell Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti Trust Action Committee or GATA discusses the gold manipulation debate and reveals his price target for free market gold.
Do You Understand How Divergences Work in the Market?
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Do You Understand How Divergences Work in the Market?
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Sunday, June 6, 2010
Safe Havens are Shining but are Equities about to Rocket Higher?
It was another extremely volatile week sharp rallies followed by sharp sell offs. Fear is in no doubt controlling the market. The bulls and bears continue to battle it out. The charts below cover some important trends and market internals I pay attention to on a daily basis.
US Dollar Index – Daily Chart
The past two months the dollar as been in rally mode. The last 14 days we have seen a large bullish pennant form and this pattern typically marks the half way point for the current tend. The measured move for the USD is pointing to 93 over the next few months.
Gold Futures Prices – Daily Chart
Gold as we all know is seen as the major safe haven and the price per ounce has been steadily climbing. Friday we saw the major indexes sell down very hard but both the dollar and gold posted some solid gains. Gold does looks as though it needs some time to digest the recent move higher and this could take a week or two before anything exciting happens but I am on the lookout for low risk setups.
VIX – Volatility Index – 60 Minute Chart
This index measures the fear in the market. When fear is high and everyone is selling their positions we see the VIX jump in price. Over the past month we can see a possible Head & Shoulders pattern forming. If this pattern unfolds like it should then we will see the price of equities bottom in the coming week with the VIX dropping below the blue neckline. The old saying is “When the VIX is High is time to Buy, when the VIX is low its time to Go”.
Put Call Ration – 60 Minute Chart
In short, when the put/call ration is over 1.00 then there are more traders/investors buying Put Options than Call Options. Put options are when people are buying leverage to take advantage of lower prices. My thought/opinion about this is when more people are trading with leverage anticipating lower prices, I figure they have sold all their long positions and are now using leverage to profit from lower prices. Well if the majority of individuals have sold everything then in reality there should not be much left to be sold… So I feel this correction which started in April is almost finished.
NYSE Advance/Decline Line – 60 Minute Chart
This is one of my favorite charts to look at. While there are several indicators, market internals and technical analysis needed to clearly determine if the market is currently overbought or oversold, this chart is one that can help give you a good idea if you should be looking to buy, short or just stay in cash for the time being.
SP500 Futures Prices - 2 Hour Chart
The SP500 has been up and down like a yo-yo with some very dramatic moves. Up 2+% day down 2+% the next… very sharp and powerful moves can be both every profitable or costly if not traded correctly. Last week we caught a nice 2% gain in less than 24 hours which was an exciting trade. It looked at though the market was about to breakout to the upside and possibly reach the 1150 level but early Friday morning there were rumors about some Euro bank having serious problems and that was just enough to cause a domino effect sending the market lower throughout the entire session closing on a very strong negative note for the day/week.
That being said the market internals are indicating that equities are oversold at these current prices and a bounce is due any time. With the panic selling on the NYSE Friday reaching 119 sell orders for every 1 buy order I think we will see some follow through next week with lower prices, then a rebound once investors finish selling everything they own at which point we will be looking to get involved again.
Weekly Trading Conclusion:
In short, money continues to flow into the safe havens (Gold & US Dollar). The major indices are showing extreme panic selling and look ready to in the next few days. There is a possibility that the market could break down and start another major leg lower which is a big concern to me. I will be glued to the market internals and support levels for the major commodities and equity sectors in hopes to catch the bottom or to avoid another melt down.
Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's "Daily Pre-Market Videos and Trading Alerts"
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US Dollar Index – Daily Chart
The past two months the dollar as been in rally mode. The last 14 days we have seen a large bullish pennant form and this pattern typically marks the half way point for the current tend. The measured move for the USD is pointing to 93 over the next few months.
Gold Futures Prices – Daily Chart
Gold as we all know is seen as the major safe haven and the price per ounce has been steadily climbing. Friday we saw the major indexes sell down very hard but both the dollar and gold posted some solid gains. Gold does looks as though it needs some time to digest the recent move higher and this could take a week or two before anything exciting happens but I am on the lookout for low risk setups.
VIX – Volatility Index – 60 Minute Chart
This index measures the fear in the market. When fear is high and everyone is selling their positions we see the VIX jump in price. Over the past month we can see a possible Head & Shoulders pattern forming. If this pattern unfolds like it should then we will see the price of equities bottom in the coming week with the VIX dropping below the blue neckline. The old saying is “When the VIX is High is time to Buy, when the VIX is low its time to Go”.
Put Call Ration – 60 Minute Chart
In short, when the put/call ration is over 1.00 then there are more traders/investors buying Put Options than Call Options. Put options are when people are buying leverage to take advantage of lower prices. My thought/opinion about this is when more people are trading with leverage anticipating lower prices, I figure they have sold all their long positions and are now using leverage to profit from lower prices. Well if the majority of individuals have sold everything then in reality there should not be much left to be sold… So I feel this correction which started in April is almost finished.
NYSE Advance/Decline Line – 60 Minute Chart
This is one of my favorite charts to look at. While there are several indicators, market internals and technical analysis needed to clearly determine if the market is currently overbought or oversold, this chart is one that can help give you a good idea if you should be looking to buy, short or just stay in cash for the time being.
SP500 Futures Prices - 2 Hour Chart
The SP500 has been up and down like a yo-yo with some very dramatic moves. Up 2+% day down 2+% the next… very sharp and powerful moves can be both every profitable or costly if not traded correctly. Last week we caught a nice 2% gain in less than 24 hours which was an exciting trade. It looked at though the market was about to breakout to the upside and possibly reach the 1150 level but early Friday morning there were rumors about some Euro bank having serious problems and that was just enough to cause a domino effect sending the market lower throughout the entire session closing on a very strong negative note for the day/week.
That being said the market internals are indicating that equities are oversold at these current prices and a bounce is due any time. With the panic selling on the NYSE Friday reaching 119 sell orders for every 1 buy order I think we will see some follow through next week with lower prices, then a rebound once investors finish selling everything they own at which point we will be looking to get involved again.
Weekly Trading Conclusion:
In short, money continues to flow into the safe havens (Gold & US Dollar). The major indices are showing extreme panic selling and look ready to in the next few days. There is a possibility that the market could break down and start another major leg lower which is a big concern to me. I will be glued to the market internals and support levels for the major commodities and equity sectors in hopes to catch the bottom or to avoid another melt down.
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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday June 6th
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1249.7 is deep, gold is still stay above 55 days EMA (now at 1176.8). Hence, there is no change in the bullish view yet and the long term up trend is still in favor to continue after completing the current pull back. Break of 1249.7 will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next. However, note that sustained trading below 55 EMA will opens up a few bearish possibilities. The least bearish case is that fall from 1249.7 is the third leg of the three wave consolidation from 1227.5 and would target a retest on 1044.5 support next.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.....
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010
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Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Rhylyin Bailie: Gold Stock To Watch..... NovaGold
Rhylyin Bailie director of corporate and investor relations for NovaGold breaks down the status of the company's two biggest projects and what the company will do when money runs out.
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of gold ETF GLD
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Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of gold ETF GLD
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