Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday August 7th

Gold's rebound from 1155.6 extended further last week and the break of 1203.9 resistance indicates that a short term bottom is formed. initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1266.5 to 1155.6 at 1224.1. But strong resistance should be seen above there and below 1266.5 high to bring another all. On the downside, below 1192 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1155.6 and below.

In the bigger picture, gold's rally from 1044.5 should have completed at 1266.5. More importantly, whole medium term rise from 681 might have finished with five waves up too, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Below 1155.6 will bring deeper correction to 1044.5 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 681 to 1266.5 at 1042.8) at least. After all, even in case of strong rebound, we'd maintain that risk remains heavily on the downside as long as 1266.5 high holds.

In the long term picture, we're proposing that 1266.5 is an important medium term top in gold and we should see a sizable correction going forward. A breach of 1000 psychological level is possible. However, there is no indication of long term up trend reversal yet. We'd maintain the long term bullish view and expect whole up trend from 1999 low of 253 to continue to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level after completing the correction from 1266.5.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, weekly and Monthly Charts

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