Gold rebounded further to as high as 1632.3 last week but lost some momentum ahead of 1643.7 resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading would be seen. Focus remains on 1643.7. Break there will indicate fall from 1804.4 should be finished with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Also, this will be the first signal of completion of whole consolidation from 1923.7. In such cases, stronger rebound should be seen to 1804.4 resistance first. On the downside though, below 1563.2 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for another low below 1523.9 instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions form 1923.7 high is viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern only with fall from 1804.4 as the third leg. At this point, deeper decline could still be seen. But we'd expect strong support from 1478.3/1577.4 support zone to contain downside to finish the consolidation and bring up trend resumption eventually. However, sustained break of 1478.3 indicates that deeper correction is to be seen through 38.2% retracement of 681 to 1923.7 at 1449.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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