1. I predicted on December 4th for my partners that Gold could pullback to the 1040 to 1070 US ranges, with a mimimum of 1070 likely. So far the Gold pivot lows have been to 1074, bounced up, re-traced to 1090, ran to 1145, re-traced to 1090 again. I got the partners in my service us out of several gold positions issuing take profit alerts on the B wave bounce to 1135 recently, and we have held a few. We sold our ICI.TO, JIN.TO, and AAU at much higher levels and remain out of those positions.
2. Gold now appears to be in the C wave down in this corrective pattern from the Dec 3 highs. It appears to me the $1040 US target is more likely now, and possibly lower. I have a GLD ETF chart below.
I see a Gap at 102.50 on the GLD chart, and there is a chance that will fill. This would represent a 50% Fibonacci pullback of the entire advance from April 2009 into December 2009. A 61% retracement would push Gold even lower towards the 97-98 areas on the ETF. I would not be going long Gold right now until we see the patterns complete. I would also avoid going long Gold stocks just yet. They will bottom before Gold bottoms, but the timing is still off.
The dollar is likely to bounce a bit further and a break over 79 on the Dollar to the upside certainly leads to another leg down in Gold.
With that said, we will monitor some Gold stocks for some washout pivot lows to possibly trade into at the right time. I have avoided getting back into GSS for example because the chart is not yet right.
Make sure to visit David at Active Trading Partners.
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