Gold's fall from 1163 extended further to as low as 1083 last week and the development suggests that whole decline from 1127.5 is resuming. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 1075.2 support first. Break will confirm the bearish view and target 100% projection of 1227.5 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7 next. On the upside, above 1117.8 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited below 1163 resistance and bring fall resumption.
In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1163 will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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