Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday November 27th

Gold's fall from 1804.4 extended to as low as 1667.1 before forming a temporary low there and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral initially this week and some more sideway trading might be seen. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1736.6 support turned resistance holds. Current development suggests that whole rebound from 1535 has completed with three waves up to 1804.4. Below 1667.1 will target a test on 1535 support. On the upside, though, break of 1736.6 will turn focus back to 1804.4 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that correction from 1923.7 is going to extend with another fall. However, there is still no clear sign of long term trend reversal yet and price actions from 1923.7 would still be finally unfolded as correction/consolidation only. Hence, while the fall from 1804.4 might extend further lower, we'll look for reversal signal again inside 1478.3/1577.4 support zone. Above 1804.4, on the other hand, will target a test on 1923.7 high.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run

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Oil N Gold: Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Sept 17th

Gold's choppy fall from 1923.7 extended to as low as 1765.4 last week and there is no sign of completion yet. Such decline is either consolidation to rise from 1705.4 or the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1917.9. In either case, more choppy trading would still be seen in range of 1705.4/1923.7. But in case of deeper fall, we'd expect strong support above 1705.4 to contain downside and bring up trend resumption. Above 1923.7 should in turn send gold towards 61.8% projection of 1478.3 to 1917.9 from 1705.4 at 1977.1.

In the bigger picture, firstly, gold's long term up trend is still intact and there is no signal of reversal yet. Another record high should still be seen. But we'll be cautious on another near term reversal near to 2000 psychological level and finally bring some lengthier consolidation. Meanwhile, a break of 1705.4 will argue that gold has indeed topped out with a double top reversal pattern (1917.9, 1923.7) and in such case, deeper pull back could be seen back towards resistance turned 1577.4 support instead.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 and there is no sign of topping yet. Current up trend could now be targeting 161.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1945.6. Sustained trading above 2000 psychological level should pave the way to 261.8% projection at 2727.2.


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OIl N Gold: Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold's rebound from 1705.4 extend further to as high as 1887.4 last week and seems to be accelerating. Initial bias remains on the upside for 1917.9 high. Break will confirm up trend resumption and should target 2000 psychological level. On the downside, break of 1815.5 minor support will flip bias to the downside towards 1705.4 to continue the consolidation from 1917.9.

In the bigger picture, firstly, gold's long term up trend is still intact and there is no signal of reversal yet. Current development suggests that gold will attempt to make a new record high above 1917.9 in near term possibly to 61.8% projection of 1478.3 to 1917.9 from 1705.4 at 1997.1. But we'll be cautious on another near term reversal near to 2000 psychological level and finally bring some lengthier consolidation. But in any case, we won't consider medium term reversal possibly before sustained break of 55 days EMA (now at 1691.7)

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 and there is no sign of topping yet. Current up trend could now be targeting 161.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1945.6. Sustained trading above 2000 psychological level should pave the way to 261.8% projection at 2727.2.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Oil N Gold: Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold surged to another new record high of 1881.4 last week and closed the week strong. Initial bias remains on the upside for 1900 psychological level and then 161.8% projection of 1309.1 to 1577.4 from 1478.3 at 1912.4 next. On the downside, below 1824.5 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 1725.8 support and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, gold's up trend from 2009 low of 681 is still in progress and momentum remains strong even though RSI in weekly and monthly charts are both in overbought region. As long as 1577.4 resistance turned support holds, we'll stay bullish in gold and expect the up trend to extend to 2000 psychological level next.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 and there is no sign of topping yet. Current up trend could now be targeting 161.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1945.6. Sustained trading above 2000 psychological level should pave the way to 261.8% projection at 2727.2.

Oil N Gold: Gold Has Further To Go!

Commodity price movements continue to be directed by macroeconomic concerns in the near term. Gold jumped to a new record high of 1637.5 on Friday as US growth missed expectations. The yellow metal's rally to new highs in 3 out of the past 5 days signaled market worries over uncertainties. The debt ceiling debate in the US has dominated the news headline for the whole week. The latest development is that House speaker Boehner's revise plan was passed in the House but was defeated in the Senate.

Meanwhile, the majority Senate leader Reid modified his proposal, incorporating Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's '2-step' process (the loan will be provided in 2 installments of 1.2 trillion, one immediate and another when the nation is near the debt limit again) to raise the debt ceiling. Economists generally do not expect the new plan to be the resolution for the debt problems.

On Friday, market sentiment was deteriorated further as US economic growth disappointed in 2Q11. GDP expanded an annualized +1.3% in 2Q11. The market had anticipated a strong expansion of +1.7%. For the first quarter, GDP growth was revised lower to + 0.4% from +1.9% estimated previously. Economists have revised down their forecasts for this year and 2012 after the report.

For example, Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut US' growth by -0.6% to just 2.3% in 2012 and pushed back the first Fed hike to 2013. Barclays Capitals reduced the country's growth forecasts to +1.7% and +2.4% for 2011 and 2012 respectively.....Read the entire article.


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Oil N' Gold: Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Nov. 27th

Gold's recovery from 1329 was limited at 1382.9 and reversed. The structure of such recovery suggests that it's merely a correction to fall from 1424.3. Initial bias remains cautiously on the downside this week for 1315.8/1329 support zone. Decisive break there will complete a head and shoulder top reversal pattern and should turn outlook bearish for deeper fall. On the other hand, strong rebound from 1315.8/1329 will indicate that gold is merely in sideway consolidation and another high would still be seen before topping.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). There is no confirmation of topping yet. However, note that 1424.3 record high was close to two important projection target, 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 and 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462. Reversal should be imminent. Break of mentioned 1315.8/1329 will signal that 1424.3 is an important top and gold should have started a sizeable medium term correction that should dip back into 1044.5/1227.5 support zone at least.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 is almost met and a sizeable correction should be around the corner. Though, even in case of deep fall, 55 months EMA (now at 931 level) should present strong support to contain downside and bring another up trend.

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Oil N' Gold: Gold Weekly Technical For Saturday Nov. 6th

Gold's up trend resumed last week by taking out prior high of 1388.1 and made new record high of 1398.7. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 161.8% projection of 1084.8 to 1266.5 from 1155.6 at 1449.6 next. On the downside, below 1371.9 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1315.8 is needed to signal topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). Such rally is still expected to continue towards 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 before completion. Though, we're aware of long term projection target of 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 and we'd anticipate strong resistance from there to bring medium term correction finally. On the downside, however, break of 1315.8 support will be an early alert of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 1155.6 support for confirmation.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. The anticipated correction didn't happen and gold will now likely climb further to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 before making a top.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Oil N'Gold: Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Oct. 30th

Despite initial setback, Gold's rebound from 1315.8 extended last week and the break of 1350 resistance suggests that pull back from 1388.1 is finished. Further rise is in favor to retest 1388.1 resistance first. Nevertheless, decisive break there is still needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, we'd should still see another fall to 38.2% retracement of 1155.6 to 1388.1 at 1299.3 before the consolidation concludes.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). While a short term top is in place at 1388.1, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Recent up trend could still extend further to 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 before completion. Though, we're aware of long term projection target of 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 and we'd anticipate strong resistance from there to bring medium term correction finally. On the downside, however, break of 1266.5 resistance turned support will be an early alert of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 1155.6 support for confirmation.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. The anticipated correction didn't happen and gold will now likely climb further to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 before making a top.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts


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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Oct. 23rd

Gold's correction from 1388.1 extended further last week and the break of 1325.6 support confirmed that a short term top is at least formed. Initial bias will remain on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1155.6 to 1388.1 at 1299.3 and below. On the upside, above 1349.6 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for a test on 1388.1 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1155.6 is treated as the fifth wave of the five wave sequence from 1044.5, which should also be fifth wave of the rally from 681 (2008 low). While a short term top is in place at 1388.1, there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Recent up trend could still extend further to 161.8% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1449.6 before completion. Though, we're aware of long term projection target of 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 and we'd anticipate strong resistance from there to bring medium term correction finally. On the downside, however, break of 1266.5 resistance turned support will be an early alert of medium term reversal and will turn focus back to 1155.6 support for confirmation.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. The anticipated correction didn't happen and gold will now likely climb further to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 before making a top.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold's rally continued last week and reached as high as 1214.8. Initial bias remains on the upside and further rally could be seen to 1227.5 high. However, as note before, we're treating rise from 1044.5 as the second wave of the consolidation from 1227.5, we'd expect strong resistance at 1227.5 to conclude the rise from 1044.5 and bring reversal. Below 1193 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Further break of 1156.2 will turn outlook bearish for a test on 1044.5 support. Though, note that decisive break of 1227.5 will confirm up trend resumption for 1300 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, our preferred view is that price actions from 1227.5 are consolidation in the larger up trend with first leg completed at 1044.5. Rise from there represents the second leg and should conclude after being limited by 1227.5 and bring the third down leg towards 1044.5. However, note that sustained trading above 1227.5 high will indicate that the correction has indeed completed at 1044.5 already and long term up trend is resuming. In such case, Gold should target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7 next.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.

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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold's choppy recover from 1124.3 continued last week and reached as high as 1157.9. Further rise would probably be seen initially this week. However, since the recovery from 1124.3 is looking corrective in nature, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1170.7 resistance and bring one more fall to continue the whole consolidation. Below 1135.2 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 61.8% retracement if 1084.8 to 1170.7 at 1117.6 and below

In the bigger picture, as noted before, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1044.5 so far suggests that it's the second leg of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 1227.5. At this moment, there is no confirmation that rise from 1044.5 is completed yet and another rise might still be seen. However, even in that case, strong resistance should be seen above 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 to complete the rise and bring the another fall to retest 1044.5 before consolidation from 1227.5 completes. Meanwhile, break of 1084.8 support will indicate that the third falling leg has likely started and will then target a new low below 1044. before completing consolidations from 1227.5.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Despite edging higher to 1170.7, the subsequent reversal and short fall on Friday sent gold below 38.2% retracement of 1084.8 to 1170.7 at 1137.9. Such development suggests that rise from 1084.8 has completed. More decline would be expected initially this week to 61.8% retracement at 1117.6 and below. On the upside, break of 1170.7 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, short term outlook will be neutral at best.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1044.5 so far suggests that it's the second leg of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 1227.5. At this moment, there is no confirmation that rise from 1044.5 is completed yet and another rise might still be seen. However, even in that case, strong resistance should be seen above 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 to complete the rise and bring the another fall to retest 1044.5 before consolidation fro 1227.5 completes. Meanwhile, break of 1084.8 support will indicate that the third falling leg has likely started and will then target a new low below 1044. before completing consolidations from 1227.5.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.





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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Gold's consolidation from 1170.7 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. ANother fall cannot be ruled out but downside will likely be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1084.8 to 1170.7 at 1137.9 and bring rally resumption. Break of 1170.7 will target 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. The lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up trend. Hence upside will likely be limited by 1227.5 high and bring at least one more fall before the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will indicate that the third leg of consolidations has started and should then target 1044.5 again.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Wednesday Morning

Gold remains firm so far even though it's losing a bit upside momentum. Further rise would remain in favor as long as 1123.5 minor support holds targeting a retest on 1145.8 resistance next. On the downside, below 1123.5 will indicate that a short term top is formed and should bring some lengthier consolidation before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. the lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up trend. Above 1145.8 will bring retest of 1227.5 high but upside will likely be limited there and bring at least one more fall before the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will shift favors to the case that correction from 1227.5 is developing into a three wave move with another low below 1044.5.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1134.3 and bias is turned neutral. Some retreat might be seen in Gold but downside should be contained above 1101.1 support and bring another rise. As noted before, rally from 1044.5 is still in progress and above 1134.3 should bring retest of 1145.8 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. the lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up trend. Above 1145.8 will bring retest of 1227.5 high but upside will likely be limited there and bring at least one more fall before the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will shift favors to the case that correction from 1227.5 is developing into a three wave move with another low below 1044.5.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Despite dropping to as low as 1084.8 last week, Gold was contained there and rebounded strongly towards the end of the week. The break of 1107 resistance dampened the bearish case and in turn, argue that price actions from 1131.5 are merely consolidation to rise fro 1044.5. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week fro 1133.3 resistance and then 1145.8 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rally from 1044.5 has resumed for 1163 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1084.8 will revive the case that rebound from 1044.5 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. the lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up trend. Above 1145.8 will bring retest of 1227.5 high but upside will likely be limited there and bring at least one more fall before the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will shift favors to the case that correction from 1227.5 is developing into a three wave move with another low below 1044.5.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

At this point, intraday bias in Gold remains on the downside with 1108.6 minor resistance intact. The break of 1088.5 support confirms that rebound from 1044.5 is completed after making a head and shoulder top (ls: 1131.5, h: 1145.8, rs: 1133.3). Deeper fall should be seen retest 1044.5 support next. On the upside, above 1108.5 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again and argue that price actions from 1131.5 are merely consolidations. That is, rise from 1044.5 is still in progress for 1163 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. Current development suggest that such correction is not completed yet and fall from 1145.8 is possibly developing into the third wave of such correction. Another low below 1044.5 could be seen before long term up trend resumption. On the upside, though, decisive break of 1145.8 resistance will revive the case that gold has bottomed out at 1044.5 already and will target a retest of 1227.5 high next.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .


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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday

Gold's dips to as low as 1092.1 before recovering mildly. The break of 1097.3 support argues that Gold has completed a head and shoulder top pattern (ls: 1131.5, h: 1145.8, rs: 1133.3) and rise from 1145.8 is already finished. Intraday bias is now on the downside for 1088.5 support first and break will send crude oil further lower to retest 1044.5 low. On the upside, though, break of 1118.5 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again and argue that rise from 1.0445 is still in progress for 1163 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. Question is on whether such correction is finished. As long as 1097.3 support holds, we'd favor the bullish case that correction from 1227.5 is completed and rise from 1044.5 is resuming larger up trend to another high above 1227.5. On the downside, however, break of 1097.3 will shift favor to the case that correction from 1227.5 is not completed and fall from 1145.8 would be developing into the third wave of such correction for another low below 1044.5 before longer term up trend resumption.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, intraday bias in gold is neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, we're favoring the case that choppy correction from 1145.8 is already completed at 1097.3 and rise from 1044.5 is set to resume. Break of 1145.8 will target 1163 resistance next. Also, note that break of 1163 will confirm that correction from 1227.5 has completed with three waves down to 1145.8 already and retest of 1227.5 should then be seen. However, note that break of 1097.3 support will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 1044.5 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only and might have completed at 1044.5 already after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will further affirm this case. On rally resumption, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7. On the downside, break of 1097.3 support will in turn argue that correction from 1227.5 would extend further before completion.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

As discussed before, Gold's choppy correction from 1145.8 should have completed at 1097.3 already. Further rise is expected for retesting this resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rally from 1044.5 has resumed for 1163 resistance next. Also, note that break of 1163 will confirm that correction from 1227.5 has completed with three waves down to 1145 already and retest of 1227.5 should then be seen. However, note that break of 1097.3 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 1044.5 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only and might have completed at 1044.5 already after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will further affirm this case. On rally resumption, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7. On the downside, break of 1097.3 support will in turn argue that correction from 1227.5 would extend further before completion.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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