Despite dropping to as low as 1084.8 last week, Gold was contained there and rebounded strongly towards the end of the week. The break of 1107 resistance dampened the bearish case and in turn, argue that price actions from 1131.5 are merely consolidation to rise fro 1044.5. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week fro 1133.3 resistance and then 1145.8 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rally from 1044.5 has resumed for 1163 resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1084.8 will revive the case that rebound from 1044.5 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. the lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up trend. Above 1145.8 will bring retest of 1227.5 high but upside will likely be limited there and bring at least one more fall before the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will shift favors to the case that correction from 1227.5 is developing into a three wave move with another low below 1044.5.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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