The Market Trend Forecast....Our Latest Market and Gold Views

The staff at TMTF have continued to correctly project the wave patterns for months now for their subscribers in the SP 500 Index. Their latest views were to look for a minor wave 3 top at 1698 with a pullback minor wave 4. They hit that on the nose with a 23.6% fibonacci retracement of minor wave 3 as the index hit 1676.

Since that point, TMTF outlined a Wave 5 pattern that should take the SP 500 to 1736-1771. Several weeks ago they patterned out 1768-1771 as a perfect target for a Major wave 3 high. This will be followed by a 125-200 point SP 500 correction if we are correct.

Below is the latest chart update outlining what we project ahead. A run to 1736-1771, followed by a 120-200 point correction for Major Wave 4 in the SP 500. Subscribers get multiple updates each week.

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They Just Rang A Bell On Gold and Gold Stocks

Our trading partner David A. Banister of Market Trend Forecast has been the go to guy on gold and precious metals. Let's check in with Banister and see if he thinks the bottom is in for gold.

As they say on Wall Street, “They don’t ring bells at the top” and for sure they usually don’t give you a phone call at the bottom either. Many heads have rolled trying to call this recent near 2 year downdraft in Gold in terms of bottom callers, me included. I thought we would never get much below 1440 or so from the 1923 highs, but alas we all know we did.

What makes me think that last week put in the final Gold low for the bear cycle? Too many things to mention, but based on the work I do enough to give me some chutzpah to make this call now. The 1180’s are very close to a classic ABC 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior 34 month bull cycle. That cycle ran from October 2008 to August 2011 with a rally from $681 to $1900’s area. The most recent 21 plus month decline dropped right into the 61% pivot retracement of that entire move, and over a Fibonacci 21 month period as well! Human behavior does repeat over and over again, and as we all know in hindsight at the tops everyone is bullish and at the bottoms everyone is bearish.

I think it’s pretty much as simple as that. Investors get overly optimistic and exuberant in all kinds of asset classes and finally at the highs everyone believes the rally can only go on and on forever. At the opposite near the bottoms nearly everyone is calling for lower prices and further catastrophe ahead. Stocks in the sector are priced for near bankruptcy. Newsletter writers are universally bearish, and the small trader has a big short position. Only a few weeks ago the Bullish Percentile index measurement on the Gold Stock Index was at 0! That means nobody was bullish on the Gold stocks by the measure that is used. We quickly had an 8% rally in the index after that reading, then in the last few weeks we came all the way back down again to even lower levels!

If you watched the action last Thursday as Gold was melting down below $1200 a curious thing happened. The gold miners were ignoring the move and going green! On Friday, as Gold reversed to 1234 they went ballistic with one of my favorite miners going up 16% on Friday alone on the highest volume in 5 years! Those are the signals I’ve been waiting for to call the capitulation lows. My guess is some money managers are front running the coming 3rd quarter rotation they see in Gold and Gold Miners, Copper, Coal, and other commodity stocks.

So below is my basic GLD ETF multiyear chart using very simple monthly views to see the big picture. You can see a classic ABC pattern of bear market correction and now a near 61.8% perfect Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg up. I’d say enough is enough, pick your spots and start buying.




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Gold Starts The Week on a Positive Note

April gold closed higher on Monday and above the 38% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1678.70 as it extends the rally off December's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If April extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1725.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1622.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 1684.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1725.80. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1649.80. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1622.90.


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Gold and Silver Mid Week Market Summary

Gold closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1709.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1875.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1753.90. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1709.60.

Silver closed lower on Wednesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 343.86. The low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 32.105 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-September decline crossing at 37.383 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 35.700. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-September decline crossing at 37.383. First support is the reaction low crossing at 32.105. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 29.935.


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Is It Reversal Time For the Markets?

At the start of a new week, have we turned around or is this just a correction in a larger bear market?

I think you’ll find today’s video interesting as the S&P 500 has made a remarkable recovery. However, it is back at a crucial Fibonacci retracement level which could present major problems for this index.

In our recent survey we asked traders if they were concerned about what is going on in Europe. A remarkable majority, over 75% said they were, and they do watch events in Europe very closely.
At this point, Europe is really the tail that wags the dog and we are not optimistic that things are going to work out in a positive fashion.

They have had a total of 13 summits in a period of 20 months trying to solve this problem. With the likes of Berlusconi, can you imagine telling him what to do? And other players like Nicholas Sarkozy shouting to Brian Cameron of Great Britain to shut up and butt out. And that’s the stuff we hear about!

Imagine the stuff we don’t heard about.

Let's look at the Trend Analysis for the gold market......

The gold market rallied from the lows seen last week at $1603 and have now rallied back to a Fibonacci retracement level of $1,659. While the long term and intermediate term trends remain positive for this precious metal, it is still locked in the confines of a fairly significant trading range. I think most traders would be better off just watching from the sidelines. Only long term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.

Well, December gold futures closed up $15.30 an ounce at $1,651.50 on Monday. Prices closed near mid range today as trading remains choppy and sideways. It was a “risk on” trading day in the market place today, and those types of trading days have been bullish most commodity markets, including gold, recently. Bulls and bears are back on a level near term technical playing field.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Now, let’s go to todays video and look at the charts of the six markets we publicly cover and see some of those important retracement levels.

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Gold Market Commentary For Friday Morning

Gold moved higher in overnight trading as it extends the rebound off last week's low. Golds sharp move higher is fueled by weak unemployment numbers released this morning and a large "camp" of traders that are looking at gold prices being triggered by the "QE III is coming" train of thought.

This mornings move give gold bulls fresh momentum as Stochastics and RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the rebound off last week's low, August's high crossing at 1915.00 is the next upside target.

Closes below last week's low crossing at 1701.70 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline during September.

First resistance is August's high crossing at 1915.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1701.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1686.80. Gold pivot point for Friday morning is 1826.10.

Gold Signals a Temporary Top

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, a temporary top is in place at 1160.7 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Break of 1135.2 minor support will indicate that recovery from 1124.3 has finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 61.8% retracement if 1084.8 to 1170.7 at 1117.6 and below. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1170.7 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, the lack of impulsive structure of the rise from 1044.5 so far suggests that it's the second leg of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 1227.5. At this moment, there is no confirmation that rise from 1044.5 is completed yet and another rise might still be seen. However, even in that case, strong resistance should be seen above 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 to complete the rise and bring the another fall to retest 1044.5 before consolidation from 1227.5 completes. Meanwhile, break of 1084.8 support will indicate that the third falling leg has likely started and will then target a new low below 1044. before completing consolidations from 1227.5.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, an intraday low is in place and bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations could be seen but still, deeper decline is expected as long as 1108.6 minor resistance holds. As noted before, rebound from 1044.5 is completed after making a head and shoulder top (ls: 1131.5, h: 1145.8, rs: 1133.3). Below 1084.8 will target 1044.5 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1108.5 resistance will dampen this view and suggest that price actions from 1131.5 are merely consolidations. That is, rise from 1044.5 is still in progress for 1163 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no doubt. Current development suggest that such correction is not completed yet and fall from 1145.8 is possibly developing into the third wave of such correction. Another low below 1044.5 could be seen before long term up trend resumption. On the upside, though, decisive break of 1145.8 resistance will revive the case that gold has bottomed out at 1044.5 already and will target a retest of 1227.5 high next.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .


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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

As discussed before, Gold's choppy correction from 1145.8 should have completed at 1097.3 already. Further rise is expected for retesting this resistance first. Break will confirm that whole rally from 1044.5 has resumed for 1163 resistance next. Also, note that break of 1163 will confirm that correction from 1227.5 has completed with three waves down to 1145 already and retest of 1227.5 should then be seen. However, note that break of 1097.3 will dampen the bullish case and turn focus back to 1044.5 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only and might have completed at 1044.5 already after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will further affirm this case. On rally resumption, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7. On the downside, break of 1097.3 support will in turn argue that correction from 1227.5 would extend further before completion.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Friday

Gold recovers after dipping to 1100.5 but still, correction from 1145.8 might still continue. However, downside should be contained by 1088.5 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1128.3 will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1145.8 will target 1163 resistance next. However, sustained break of 1088.5 will indicate that whole rise from 1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for another fall towards this low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only and might have completed at 1044.5 already after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will further affirm this case. On rally resumption, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7. On the downside, break of 1088.5 support will in turn argue that correction from 1227.5 would extend further before completion.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold rose further to as high as 1145.8 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is neutral this week and some more consolidations could be seen. But after all, rise from 1044.5 is in favor to continue as long as 1088.5 support holds. Above 1145.8 will target 1163 resistance next. Also, note that whole correction from 1227.5 might have completed with three waves down to 1044.5 already. Break of 1163 will confirm this case and bring retest of 1227.5 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only and might have completed at 1044.5 already after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will further affirm this case. On rally resumption, next medium term target will be 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340.7. On the downside, break of 1088.5 support will in turn argue that correction from 1227.5 would extend further before completion.

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Gold Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Intraday bias in gold remains neutral for the moment and focus is on 1131.5 resistance. Break there will indicate that rise from 1044.5 is resuming and will also strongly suggest that whole correction from 1227.5 is finished with three waves down to 1044.5 already. In such case, stronger rally should be seen to 1163 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, below 1088.5 support will shift favors back to the case that another low below 1044.5 would be seen before correction from 1227.5 concludes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise fro 931.3 only. The question now is on whether such correction is finished after meeting 61.8% retracement of 931.3 to 1227.5 at 1044.4. Strong break of 1163 resistance will indicate that the long term up trend is likely resuming for another high above 1227.5. On the downside, even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support at 1000 psychological level to conclude the correction and bring up trend resumption.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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High Range Close in Gold Gives The Bulls The Near Term Momentum

April gold closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1094.50 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If April renews last week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 1035.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1094.50
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1126.40

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1044.50
Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 1035.00

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Gold Continues The January Slide

February gold was slightly lower overnight as it continues to extend the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If February extends this year's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 1032.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1115.40 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

Gold pivot point for Monday is 1083.40

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1097.10
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1115.40

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1073.20
Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 1032.60

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Gold Market Commentary For Thursday Evening

February gold closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it extends this week's trading range. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If February extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 1032.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1116.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Thursday evening pivot point for gold is 1084.17

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1108.50
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1116.80

First support is today's low crossing at 1073.20
Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 1032.60

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