Gold's rally from 1044.5 extended further to as high as 1128.7 last week before turning sideway. The lack of momentum to sustain above 1126.4 resistance so far makes the picture quite unclear. But after all, from a near term point of view, another rise would be in favor as long as 1099.1 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 1126.4 will indicate that whole corrective fall from 1227.5 high might have already completed with three waves down to 1044.5 already. In such case, stronger rally should be seen to 1163 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, though, a break of 1099.1 support will argue that rebound from 1044.5 has completed and correction from 1227.5 is still in progress for another low before conclusion.
In the bigger picture, outlook remains broadly unchanged. Price actions from 1227.5 are treated as corrections to rise from 931.3 only. Hence, even in case of another fall, downside is expected to be contained by 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level and bring long term up trend resumption. Decisive break of 1163 resistance will indicate that such correction has already completed and the long term up trend is set to resume for another high above 1227.5.
In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.....Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Dennis Gartman’s 22 Rules of Trading
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