Today our trading partner Michael Seery gives our readers a weekly recap of the gold and silver futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.....
Fed Proof Your Portfolio
Gold prices had a volatile trading week basically finishing unchanged to settle around 1,298 in the June contract after having a tremendous reversal selling off down to 1,272 when the monthly unemployment number was released adding 280,000 jobs which is bullish the economy and bearish gold but then turned on a dime with the Ukrainian problems escalating sending gold finishing up $14 this Friday right near session highs as prices have been consolidating in recent weeks. I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in the gold market for quite some time as this market remains choppy and it might be bottoming at the current price levels as gold rallied $200 to start the year but now has given back over $100 so were at about the 50% retracement so if your bullish gold I would buy a futures contract at today’s price while placing my stop at the 10 day low which is also the 10 week low of 1,268 an ounce risking around $3,000 per contract. I’ve lived through many of these political escalations including one last August with Syria and they always seem to fizzle away so we will see if today’s rally will do the same but sit on the sidelines and see what develops. The one thing gold does have going for it is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average which is telling you that the trend might be turning higher as prices could be bottoming out.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
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Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as volatility has come back into this market in the last week as prices reversed sharply off of yesterday’s contract lows of 18.66 to go out this Friday afternoon at 19.47 an ounce and if you been reading any of my previous blogs for months I’ve been talking about the possibility of silver bottoming at the $19 level and if you have deep pockets and you’re a longer-term investor I’m recommending that you buy silver as I think prices are cheap. I am bullish silver not because of the Ukrainian problems but because of the fact that the commodity markets are in a bullish trend and silver will catch up eventually as this is a highly inflationary commodity with a lot of demand as silver is used in smart phones unlike gold which really has no purpose except for a flight to quality and jewelry. Prices reversed today because of the Ukrainian situation seems to be escalating and it sent prices sharply higher but the true breakout in this market is at 20.40 that’s where I really would be recommending to get long and if you are in a futures contract already I would be adding to my position if prices break that level as a spike bottom may have occurred in yesterday’s price action.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Here's our Critical Line in the Sand for Silver
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