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Over the past couple months everyone seems to have been preparing for a sharp market correction. Crazy part is that the SP500 dropped about 10% from the high and that is a typical bull market correction. The thing is… the stock market has a way of slowly unfolding making it look and feel minor, then before you know it, the correction is over and it’s back to an uptrend. That is kind of how this one unfolded.
The good news is that we caught the low risk portion of the correction locking in a 4.5% drop, and we are now in a long trade and in the money by 2.5% with very little down side risk at this point. Time will tell if this up trend is sustainable or not…
Now, let’s take a look at the charts…
Dollar 60 minute intraday chart
As you can see below the dollar looks to have started a breakdown today. If there is continued selling pressure in the next couple days then expect to stocks and commodities to move higher as the US Dollar drops. It is important to know that when a bullish pattern fails we typically see a very strong reaction in the opposite direction (down) catching the majority off guard and they rush to the door.
SPY Broad Market ETF – Daily Chart
A couple weeks ago we watched the market go into a free fall creating a washout bottom. From there we saw prices bounce back and retake my key moving averages. This gave us a bullish bias and dips should be looked at as buying opportunities. I will admit that stocks still have a long way to go before the masses are convinced. I feel we need to see the February and March highs get taken out first. Once they get taken out there should be strong buying as short covering (protective stops from traders who are short) causes a surge in buying pressure sending stocks sharply higher yet again.
My trading buddy David Banister at Active Trading Partners is starting to see small cap stocks come back to life. Money is starting to flow into these lucrative areas of the market and he is on top of things… This week’s trade is up 20% in less than 24 hours which is very exciting.
Gold Daily Chart
Gold has been moving up this year but the current price action is not really getting me excited to buy just yet. Recently we have seen strong selling volume and very light buying volume. My bias still favors higher prices but there is still a good chance we get another dip in the coming sessions.
Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, I feel as though the dollar will trigger the next wave of buying in stocks and commodities for the next week or two… We should see the dollar make a clean moving in either direction shortly and that will help guide my analysis, positions and setups. I hope this analysis helps you to see the market from a different perspective.
The financial markets continue to climb the wall of worry on the back of more Fed Quantitative Easing. Those trying to pick a top in this choppy bull market may prove to be correct for a couple hours but over time the shorts continue to get clobbered.
Quantitative easing was enough to turn gold back up and gave oil just enough of a nudge to breakout of its cup and handle pattern explained later.
The past few weeks the number of emails I receive on a daily basis about what individuals should do about short positions they took on their own has growing quickly. Usually when my inbox starts to fill up with traders holding heavy losses trying to pick a top I know something big is about to happen and its not going to be in the favor of the herd (everyone shorting). In the past couple week there have been some great entry points for the broad market whether its to buy the SP500, Dow, NASDAQ or Russell 2K. I focus on trading with the trend and entering on extreme sentiment readings as shown in the chart below.
Extreme Trend Trading Analysis
Below are my main market sentiment indicators for helping to time short term tops and bottoms. That being said I don’t pick short term tops in hopes to profit on the down side. Rather I wait for a extreme sentiment bottom to be put in place, then enter long with the up trend (Buy Low).
Once there is a 1-2% surge in price and sentiment indicators are showing a short term top I like to pull a little money off the table to lock in some profits while still holding a core position (Sell High). This is exactly what I/subscribers have done over the last couple weeks. This is a simple yet highly effective strategy and works just as well in a down trend except I focus on shorting extreme sentiment bounces. Subscribers know what these indicators are as I cover them each week in my daily pre-market trading videos as we prepare for the day ahead.
SPX Running Correction
Since early September the equities market has been on fire. In late September the market was extremely toppy looking and trading at key resistance levels from prior highs convincing a lot of traders to take a short position. But instead of a correction the market surged and has since continued to grind its way up week after week.
This rising choppy price action can be seen two ways:
1. As a rising wedge with a blow off top (Bearish)
2. Or as a Running Consolidation (Bullish)
The running consolidation happens when buyers are abundant picking up more shares on every little dip. Overall looking at the intraday price action you will see market shakeouts as it tries to buck traders out before it continues higher. This choppy looking market action if not read correctly looks extremely bearish to the novice trader and the fact the market is so overbought it easily convinces them to take short positions. This choppy action is just enough to wash the market of weak positions before starting another run up.
All that said, both a blow off rising wedge and a running correction are very bullish patterns for a period of time. Again I cannot state it enough, trade with the trend and the key moving averages.
Gold Shines On The Daily Chart
The gold story is straight forward really… Trend is up, quantitative easing is back in action and that is helping to list gold and silver prices. Key moving averages have turned back up and gold closed at a new high which shows strength.
Golden Rocket
With another round of quantitative easing just starting and gold making another new high last week there is a very good chance gold stocks will rocket higher in the coming 8 months. I have been following Millrock Resources Inc. because of the team involved with this company. A breakout to the upside here could post some exciting gains if you take a look at the chart and see where the majority of volume has traded over the years along with the bullish chart patterns (Cup & Handle/Rising Wedge) with strong confirming volume. From 84 cents to the $3.50 area there should not be many sellers other than traders slowing taking profits on the way up.
Crude Oil Breaks Out Of Cup
Crude oil has been dormant the past few weeks even though the US Dollar has plummeted. But last week’s news on more QE was enough to send oil higher. The surge took oil prices straight to the 2010 highs as expected and blew past my first target of $86.00 per barrel. I figure it will consolidate here for a while until we see if the dollar bottomed last week or is just testing the breakdown level.
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market has played out exactly as we planned and all four of our positions are deep in the money. As we all know the market goes in waves in both price and for trade setups. The past couple weeks were great for getting into trades and now the market is running in our direction. It will take a few days for the market to stabilize (pullback or pause) before we could get anther round of trade setups. Keep position sizes small as the market remains overbought and a sharp correction could happen at any time. Until then, keep trading with the trend.
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Disclaimer: Chris owns shares of SPY and MRO.V Share
This week we have a major wild card (Election) happening on Tuesday. Most of you know I don’t get involved with political discussion for several reasons… one of them being that I am Canadian “an outsider” looking in.
That being said, it looks and feels as though the market has been propped up and oil has been held down from an invisible force. Lots of theories going around saying higher stock and lower/stable oil prices will give voters the warm fuzzies to keep the current leaders elected… I prefer trading the charts and not getting caught in the Wall St. hype.
Let’s take a quick look at some charts
SPY – SP500 ETF Trading Vehicle
The broad market has been finding buyers as the beginning of each month and it looks as though it’s ready for another bounce. I do want to note that Tuesday or Wednesday we could see a very sharp move in the market as investors around the world digest the outcome. It is very important to keep positions small and or use protective stops incase of a flash crash or flash rally for those of you trying to pick a top.
Gold Price – Futures Contract
The price of gold looks to be setting up for another wave down in my opinion. More often than not we see a sharp pullback, sideways chop then a pop above recent highs. It’s that pop above recent highs which tends to suck in long positions only to roll over and make new lows quickly after. As noted in previous reports, gold has support around $1300 area and that’s what I am looking for. Again this week’s election will trump recent price action so we really just need to sit tight until the smoke settles.
Crude Oil Futures:
Crude oil has been trading sideways for a solid month while the US dollar has been dropping at tremendous rate. Many oil traders believe the price is being manipulated to stay down until the election is finished because of the strong negative affect rising oil prices have on the economy/end user/voters.
In short, this is a going to be a wild week in the market. Keeping position sizes small and using protective stops is crucial during times like these. We have taken profits on both of our positions from last week and have moved our stops to breakeven for the balance just incase of a crash.
Overall, I am neutral on the market for a couple days until we see what type of blip we get on the charts.
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Trading can be a lot of fun and profitable or a nightmare and very costly. It really just comes down to understanding the key areas, which will make or break your trading. I have received a few emails asking me to explain more about how I stay disciplined, making sure my emotions don’t get the better of me.
Some questions asked are: How do I pick a trading strategy, which will work for me? What reading material and habits do I recommend for keeping focused? What are some of my experiences?
I will cover all this for you below because trading discipline and managing emotions is by far the most important and difficult aspect of trading.
How do I pick a trading strategy, which will work for me?
Your strategy should be inline with your abilities to read the market also focuses on a time frame, which suits the time you have available to trade each day, week or month. In other words, you should not be trading ETF options if you cannot profit from trading ETF’s without leverage. Also if you don’t understand how options work in depth, then you need to spend some time learning about this type of trading vehicle before you ever place a trade using options. Simply put, if you don’t understand everything about what you are trading, then you will eventually give all your money to the market, leaving you with an empty account, decreased trading confidence and a frustration.
The point I am trying to make here is that you should focus on trading the types of vehicles where you understand the daily price action, how to trade that investment, what makes it move, is there leverage, and what time frame you should focus on, so that it works with your schedule. If you can only look at the charts at night, after the markets close, then you should not be focusing on day trading. So pick something you like, understand or want to trade and learn everything about it. Then find a trading system or create one yourself, which is profitable using the time frame and risk tolerance that fit your personality.
Over the years my trading strategy changed, as will yours. The more time you spend trading, the better you will become the more you will find yourself trading more of one type of investment that consistently makes you money. When I started trading back in the late 90’s I focused on stocks, but as time went on, my strategy evolved and now my main focus is on trading indexes and gold with a hybrid intra-day and swing trading strategy that I created. My focus is on ETF’s, because you can select different levels of risk/reward with the 1,2 or 3x leveraged funds. While ETF’s are fantastic to trade, they do have some limitations. Because the indexes and gold trade 24/7, you are limited to only regular market hours, 9:30am – 4pm ET. That leads me to the topic of Futures and CFD trading.
Depending on the type of trade and time of day a setup occurs, I will jump from ETF’s to futures or CFD’s. Let me explain, if there is a setup early in the morning before the regular market opens, or after the close late in the evening, then I trade futures or CFD’s because it allows me to trade 24/7 catching moves which would not even be seen by most North American traders. There are not a lot of these trades per year but enough to make it worth trading.
What are some of my experiences?
In short, virtually every trader will eventually reach the tipping point. What I mean here is you will either lose enough money and/or become so frustrated that you will debate whether or not you should continue trading.
I reached this level many years ago and I still remember it crystal clear. I lost most of the money in my account, almost every trade was going against me and I had never been so frustrated and upset in my life. I’m sure many of you know what I am talking about… Unfortunately trading does break a lot of people down financial and emotionally, causing them to give up. But others reach this point and realize that if they can be wrong all the time, then someone who knows what they are doing should be making good money and that they just need to learn what they are doing.
This is the point at which you decide whether to give up a life long dream of trading full time to go back to your day job or you step back to re-evaluate your situation and seek profession help. All successful traders have or had a mentor at one point in their life and it does not matter which career you are in, learning from someone who knows how to do what you want is the fastest and most effective way to learn.
Those who decide to continue and take things serious shift their mind set from Trying To Trade to Learning To Trade. It is at this point, where trading becomes fun and profitable again. My point here is that trading is not something you can learn quickly on your own. You should get help from someone who is successfully doing exactly what you want to be doing, then shadow their every move and seek mentoring from them. This usually costs more than say just buying a book or mini e-course. There is no comparison between what you get out of them or obtaining practical experience.
What reading, and habits do I recommend for staying disciplined?
There is no easy answer, as everyone absorbs information differently. Some prefer reading and studying charts, listening to audio, watching videos and some prefer or need live mentoring and real-time examples.
I learned charting from the well known annalist, John Murphy, through his book “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”. This is a massive book with over 500 pages explaining technical analysis. This book is a lot to digest, but there is a lot of great free information online, which will allow you to read about the basics of trading including: chart patterns, volume, candle sticks, support & resistance levels and trend lines. Once you understand these key concepts and are able to read the charts, then you are literally ready to start paper trading and applying or creating a trading strategy, which manages entry, exits, scale out prices, and manages your money.
As most of you know, I am a very patient trader waiting for risk setups in the investments, which I understand best and have consistently traded for many years. Because of my strict trading setups and rules, which I have set for myself, it does cut down on the amount of trades the market provides. My focus is on low risk, high probability setups, which I completely understand, and that’s all I trade. This trading strategy works on any time frame allowing me to use it for day trading and swing trading.
The question everyone wants to know is how to stay so disciplined and keep emotions from taking over?
This takes me back to the Tipping Point mentioned earlier. I always ask myself if the trade meets my setup criterion, which is a simple yes or no answer because my setup criteria is clear in my head. Either it has the characteristics I am looking for or it does not. Sometimes the setups are very close and I will admit it is very tempting to take the trade, but I always step back (walk away from the computer) to clear the emotions flying around in my head and ask myself, do I want to break a rule, which almost broke me financially and emotionally once before? The answer is always No. So I pass on the trade and wait for another one to unfold.
When I was first learning to day trade, I quickly learned that I did not have to take every setup that looked like it had potential. I realized that no matter what condition the market was in, there would always be another trade just around the corner, so its not a big deal. I admit, I hate to see an investment make a large move without me like this 7 day rally in gold happening right now, because my setup criteria was not met. But I know there will be many more trades through the year in gold and other investments, which will provide me with great returns. People who think they need and must catch ever big move in the market in order to make big money on yearly basis, are looking that things completely backwards. It only takes 5-10 good trades per year to out perform the market so I don’t understand people when they panic about every zig and zag the market makes.
Ok, lets take a look at the gold chart, which I have overlaid with two cycles, which I use to help time gold.
9 Day Gold Cycle
The daily chart of gold below has my 9-day cycle overlaid. You can see how this cycle relates to the price movements of gold. After the recent low cycle, we saw gold continue to move higher and this is because the trend of gold turned up in March and the long term cycle is also moving up at the same time. These two bullish forces can over power the short term 9-day cycle at times.
That being said, the 9 day cycle will be topping in 2 days (Tuesday) and that should put some selling pressure on gold. I expect to see a pullback or consolidation (sideways movement) in the coming week.
29 Day Gold Cycle
This cycle allows us to see the big picture and underlying trend for gold. This larger more powerful cycle of gold will top in one day (Monday) and that should put a damper on this rally. You can see how I think gold will play out from the lines on the chart.
Combined Cycles on Gold
This chart clearly shows how both cycles will top this week which should put some selling pressure on gold and silver and one of the reasons I have not chased the price of gold higher buying in a panic.
Gold Trading Discipline Conclusion:
In short, trading discipline is something you can become educated about from books, but the only way to actually take control of your trading, is to be honest with your self. Think of it this way, every time you break a trading rule, you are setting yourself up for failure. Do you really want to sabotage the most important person in your life, which you will have to live with every day (You)? If you cannot trust yourself from sabotaging and lying to your self, what type of person would you be? Do you want to lose money by taking positions, which are proven not to work and cost you money in the long run? Of course you don’t!
So the next time you see a trade, which is close to your setup but no exactly what you are looking for, just walk away and wait for the next one.
As for the current price of gold, I think we are about to see lower prices, or at least a pause, which will last for 5-15 days.
Last week the general market continued to grind its way higher for yet another week. Overall I feel the market is very much over bought. We all know the market can stay in extreme overbought levels for extended periods of time making it very difficult to pick tops.
This is the reason I do not try to pick tops, but rather wait for a top to form before putting my money to work. While a bottom can be made in 1 day, tops tend to take days and some times months to complete.
A few things really stood out to me when looking back on last week’s price action.
1. Gold (GLD Fund) was only up 0.29% for the week while the gold mining stocks (GDX Fund) was down over 3.5%. This strong divergence really has me concerned about the price of gold in the near term. Gold stocks generally lead gold and if they are down 10x more than gold last week, we better watch out....
2. The US Dollar broke out and started to rally posting a gain of 1% for the week. It is definitely weird to see gold move higher when the US dollar is rising…
Gold GLD Daily Chart
Gold has been trading sideways/down since December. I see this large 5 month pullback as a bull flag and expect to see much higher prices for gold long term. But I don’t count my eggs before they hatch, so I continue to focus on the daily and intraday chart patterns for low risk trading opportunities.
Friday we saw gold close very strong for the day. It looks very much like a reversal candle but with the price trading under the mini head & shoulders neck line and with the US Dollar in rally mode again, I don’t think the stars are aligned enough for me to put money to work just yet.
Gold is currently trading in a major congestion zone. Until there is a breakout of this zone, I think setups will not be very accurate.
Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. NYSE New Highs Divergence – JANUARY
This chart shows the January 2010 peak in the stock market. As you can see prices became choppy with strong up and down movements before we saw the sharp drop.
Also note the NYSE new highs line. As the market became choppy new highs began to drop quickly. This indicated the market internals were weakening and led to an 8% drop over the next couple weeks.
Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. NYSE New Highs Divergence – MARCH
This chart in my opinion looks much the same as January. You can see the Reversal candle from the February lows and the strong rally to the current price, as of Friday.
Notice how the market is getting choppy. Also last Thursday the Dow gave us a reversal candle. But this time the reversal candle is to the down side.
Also note the NYSE New Highs line. It has dropped sharply indicating the market internals are weakening once again.
This is what trading is all about… finding things that are out of whack and waiting for a low risk setup in order to make a profit.
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, the stock market is over bought and about to roll over. I do understand that this grind higher could last another week or so, which is why I am focusing on short/quick intraday movements like Friday’s SP500 Intraday Low Risk Setup, and not buying etf funds to hold for a few weeks. Most of you know I do not chase prices higher simply because down side risk increased when buying into an over extended rally.
I feel gold, silver and oil will move together and at this time, I don’t like their charts for trading. With any luck we could get some setups this week, but not counting anything just yet.
