How to Know if This Rally Will Continue for Two More Months

Our trading partner Chris Vermeulen has our readers off to an amazing start for 2018. If this is any sign of what we have to come this year we are in store for one of our best years of trading possibly ever. 

Chris just sent over his latest article and it explains how our old reliable Transportation Index is guiding the way once again. Read "How to Know if This Rally Will Continue for Two More Months".

Our research has been “spot on” with regards to the markets for the first few weeks of 2018. We issued our first trade on Jan 2nd, plus two very detailed research reports near the end of 2017 and early 2018. We urge you to review these research posts as they tell you exactly what to expect for the first Quarter in 2018.

Continuing this research, we have focused our current effort on the Transportation Index, the US Majors, and the Metals Markets. The Transportation Index has seen an extensive rally (+19.85%) originating near November 2017. This incredible upside move correlates with renewed US Tax policies and Economic increases that are sure to drive the US Equity market higher throughout 2018.

In theory, the Transportation Index is a measure of economic activity as related to the transportation of goods from port to distribution centers and from distribution centers to retail centers. The recent jump in the Transportation Index foretells of strong economic activity within the US for at least the next 3 months.

Get our Free Technical Traders Wealth Building Newsletter....Get it Here 

One could, and likely should watch the Transportation Index for any signs of weakness or contraction which would indicate an economic slowdown about to unfold. In order to better understand how the Transportation Index precedes the US Equity markets by 2-5 months, let’s compare the current price activity to that of 2007-08.

This first chart is the current Transportation Index and shows how strong the US economic recovery is in relation to the previous year (2017). As the US economy has continued to strengthen and open up new opportunities, the Transportation Index has related this strength by increasing by near +20% in only a few short months. This shows us that we should continue to expect a moderate to strong bullish bias for at least the first quarter of 2018 – unless something dramatic changes in relation to economic opportunities.

Current Transportation Index Chart

In comparison, this chart (below) is the Transportation Index in 2007-08 which reacted quite differently. The economic environment was vastly different at this time. The US Fed had raised rates consecutively over a two year period leading up to a massive debt/credit crisis. At the same time, the US had a Presidential Election cycle that saw massive uncertainty with regards to regulation, policies and economic opportunities. Delinquencies as related to debt had already started to climb and the markets reacted to the economic alarms ringing from all corners of the globe. The Transportation Index formed a classic “rollover top” formation in late 2007 and early 2008 well before the global markets really began to tank.

2007-08 Transportation Index Chart

Our analysis points to a very strong first quarter of 2018 within the US and for US Equities. We believe the economic indicators will continue to perform well and, at least for the next 3 months, will continue to drive strong equity growth. We do expect some volatility near the end of the first Quarter as well as continued 2-5% price volatility/rotation at times. There will be levels of contraction in the markets that are natural and healthy for this rally. So, be prepared for some rotation that could be deeper than what we have seen over the last 6 months.

In conclusion, equities are this point are overpriced, and overbought based on the short term analysis. We should be entering slightly weaker time for large cap stocks over the next couple weeks before it goes much higher. Because we are still in a full out bull market, Dips Should Be Bought and we will notify members of a new trade once we get another one of these setups.

In our next post, we are going to talk about two opportunities in precious metals forming for next week!

Read the analysis we presented before the end of 2017 regarding our predictive modeling systems and how we target our research to helping our members. If you believe our analysis is accurate and timely, then we urge you to subscribe here at The Technical Traders to support our work and to benefit from our signals. We believe 2018 – 2020 will be the years that strategic trades will outperform all other markets. Join us in our efforts to find and execute the best trading opportunities and profit from these fantastic setups.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Gold Stocks Are About to Create a Whole New Class of Millionaires

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

Bear markets always end. Has this one?


Evidence is mounting that the bottom for gold may be in. While there's still risk, there's a new air of bullishness in the industry, something we haven't seen in over two years.

An ever growing number of industry insiders and investment analysts believe the downturn has come to a close. If that's true, it has immediate and critical implications for investors.

Doug Casey told me last week: "In my lifetime, the best time to have bought gold was 1971, at $35; it ran to over $800 by 1980. In 2001, gold was $250: in real terms even cheaper than in 1971. It ran to over $1,900 in 2011.

"It's now at $1,250. Not as cheap, in real terms, as in 1971 or 2001, but the world's financial and economic state is far more shaky.

"Gold is, once again, not just a prudent holding, but an excellent, high-potential, low-risk speculation. And gold stocks are about to create a whole new class of millionaires."

Just a couple of months ago, you would have had a hard time finding even one analyst saying something positive about gold and gold stocks—even some of the most bullish investment pros had gone silent.

But that's changing. Case in point: When Chief Metals & Mining Strategist Louis James and I attended last week's Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver, we witnessed quite a few very optimistic speakers.

Take Frank Giustra, for example, a self-made billionaire and philanthropist who made his fortune both in the mining sector and the entertainment industry. He's the founder of Lionsgate Entertainment, which is responsible for blockbuster movies like The Hunger Games, but he was just as heavily involved with mining blockbusters such as Iamgold, Wheaton River Minerals, Silver Wheaton, and others.

More Upturn Advocates Here's a quick scan of the growing number of voices that think the decline is over, some of which are outright bullish: "The worst is over with gold. It's time to call your broker." —Frank Holmes, US Global Investors "Sentiment is as black as night on gold, so I’m actually long on some gold miners." —Jeffrey Gundlach, bond guru and DoubleLine Capital founder "We'll see a gradual recovering throughout the year, because all the negative factors are already in the price." —Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank "Looking ahead, the downside risks seem to be diminishing, and overall we feel that the big shocks we've seen over the last two or three years are done..." —Marc Elliott, Investec "The mainstream narrative on gold is changing, indicating a possible bottom." —Bron Suchecki, Perth Mint "Orthodox investments are working on a cyclical peak, as precious metals are working on a cyclical bottom. The big pattern could be fully reversed by February-March, with gold becoming one of the best-performing sectors through the rest of 2014. The advice is to seriously reduce exposure in stocks and bonds and get fully invested in the precious metals sector. This should be completed in the first quarter." —Bob Hoye, Institutional Advisors

"I'm telling you, you've seen the bottom of the gold market," he told the rapt audience at the conference, offering a bet to the Goldman Sachs analyst who claimed gold is going to $1,000.

The stakes: Whoever loses has to stand on a popular street in downtown Vancouver dressed in women's underwear.

Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report, stated in a recent interview on CNBC: "The commercial traders are at their most bullish stance since the 2001 low, and they usually get proven right. It's a hugely bullish condition for gold, and I'm expecting a really large rebound.

"The moment we see a major gold producer announce that it's curtailing production or it's going out of business," McClellan continued, "that'll be the moment we mark the low in gold. I expect to have one of those announcements any minute. We're getting down to the production price of gold right now, and they won't continue producing gold at that level for very long."

Are they just guessing? To answer that, first consider the historical context of this bear market—it's getting very long in the tooth:

• The current correction in gold stocks is the fourth longest since 1879. The decline of 66% ranks in the top 10 of recorded history.

• In silver, only two corrections have lasted longer—the ones that ended in 1936 and 1983.

Some technical analysts have pointed to positive chart formations, most notably the powerful "double bottom" that can portend a strong upward move. Based on intraday prices…

• Gold formed a double bottom last year, hitting $1,180.64 on June 28 and $1,182.60 on December 31, a convincing six-month span.

• Silver formed a higher low: $18.20 on June 28 vs. $18.72 on December 31, a bullish development.

• Gold stocks (XAU) formed a slightly lower low: $82.29 on June 26 vs. $79.73 December 19, 2103, a difference of 3.2%. However, as our friend Dominick Graziano, who successfully helped us earn doubles on three GLD puts last year, recently pointed out…

• The TSX Venture Index, where most junior mining stocks trade, has stayed above its June low. In fact, it recently soared above both the 50 day and 40 week moving averages for the first time since 2011.

Meanwhile, Goldcorp (GG) sent a huge bullish signal to the market earlier this month. It decided to pounce on the opportunities available right now, launching a takeover bid of Osisko Mining for $2.6 billion. The company wouldn't be buying now if it thought gold was headed to $1,000.

As Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter, says, "It's time to be quietly bullish."

The smart money, like resource billionaire Rick Rule, is not just quietly bullish, though—they are actively buying top-quality junior mining stocks at bargain-basement prices to make a killing when prices rise.
To make sure that you can invest right alongside them, we decided to host a sequel to our 2013 Downturn Millionaires event, titled Upturn Millionaires—How to Play the Turning Tides in the Precious Metals Market.

Back then, we made a strong case for this once-in-a-generation opportunity—but it was still undetermined when the bottom would be in. It looks like that time is now very near, and we believe it's time to act.

On Wednesday, February 5, at 2 p.m. EST, resource legends Frank Giustra, Doug Casey, Rick Rule, and Ross Beaty, investment gurus John Mauldin and Porter Stansberry, and Casey Research resource experts Louis James and Marin Katusa will present the evidence and discuss the possibilities for life changing gains for investors with the cash and courage to grab this bull by the horns.

How do we know the absolute bottom is in? I'll answer that with a quote from a recent Mineweb interview with mining giant Rob McEwen, former chairman and CEO of Goldcorp:

"I'd say we're either at or extremely close to the bottom, and as an investor I'm not prepared to wait to see if the bottom's there because it's very hard to pick it. Because … if you're not taking advantage of it right now, you're going to miss a big part of the move. And when you look at the distance these stocks have to travel to get to their old highs, there's some wonderful numbers in terms of performance that I think we're going to see."

Granted, these voices are still in the minority—but that's what makes this opportunity wonderfully contrarian.

After all, once "Buy gold stocks" is investor consensus, we'll be approaching the time to sell.
Our Upturn Millionaires experts believe that our patience is about to be rewarded. And when that happens, gold stocks will be easy doubles—and the best juniors potential ten baggers.

Don't miss the free Upturn Millionaires video event—register here to save your seat. 

Even if you don't have time to watch the premiere, register anyway to receive a video recording of the event.)

The SP 500 and Gold Play a Crazy Little Game of Poker

From our partner J.W. Jones at Options Trading Signals........

Recently I have had several members of my service requesting my thoughts on the macroeconomic backdrop which is shaping financial markets. I decided I would proffer an article about why I find such practice to be a total waste of time. Don’t get me wrong, acknowledging what is going on in the world around us as a trader is important because economic data and geopolitical events shape social mood. Social mood is just one catalyst that directly impacts financial markets and it is important for traders to monitor the world around them.

However, building trading plans based on events with outcomes that are unknown and unknowable is foolish. If an event’s outcome is unknown, one would surmise that the market’s reaction to the news is unknown as well. If a trading plan is built on multiple unknowns it can lead to a disastrous outcome for trades built around such premises. I pay attention to the headlines, but I don’t base trading decisions solely on the news cycle. Spending time building detailed thoughts about the future of events and then trading based on those events also cause traders to become biased with regard to price action.

Let me be clear, I do read analysis from experts on global events, but I don’t build trading plans around what I read. I try to look at the news and decipher what impact events will have on social mood. Once I have what I feel to be a grasp of social mood, then I look at fundamentals which could be earnings reports or economic data points searching for more clues about social mood and the strength of specific economies. From there, I use basic tape reading and technical analysis to help identify trades that have sound risk / reward. Trading is not a guessing game, nor is it gambling. The best traders take a variety of forms of data, interpret them, and then build trades that make sense based on probability.

Trading is very similar to playing poker. Everyone sits down with the same amount of money essentially and the money on the table does not really change. All that happens is money moves from one perception of the game to another. Those who understand and accept risk at appropriate times are rewarded more often than those who ignore risk. As time goes on, the players who understand the game and risk the most make the most money as their probability of success is higher than those who play every hand ignoring potential hazards. Trading is identical in thought and practice. Understanding risk and leveraging probability is what separates great traders from speculators.

As is customary, I will provide readers with a little bit of insight about what I believe could play out in the S&P 500 and gold. Before I get into the chart work, I would like to remind readers that this market is treacherous. Risk has not been this high for quite some time and ignoring it is foolhardy. I am trading smaller position sizes, taking profits quickly, and ultimately I’m sitting in cash waiting for price to breakout and offer solid setups where risk is defined. Currently the S&P 500 and gold are stuck between major overhead resistance and underlying support. Breakouts are going to transpire, but the question is which direction price will ultimately go. I’m going to let others do the heavy lifting and wait patiently for a solid setup to trade.

It seems to me that social mood is pretty poor at this point, economic data has not been great, earnings have been solid except for Caterpillar, and headline risks are plentiful. With that said, I am starting to lean slightly in the bullish camp. My reasoning is built around the fact that the majority of retail investors and novice traders are all setting up for a nasty selloff.

The only selloff I see possible is in the Treasury bond market and possibly the U.S. Dollar. In either case, equities could rally and it would be a surprise to most investors and traders. Mr. Market will punish as many traders and investors as possible and the majority are leaning bearish, so my contrarian instinct says to watch for bullish setups, but be patient enough to see them breakout before jumping aboard.

I intend to trade the S&P 500, but I am waiting on a confirmed breakout in either direction. I really don’t care which direction it is, I just want to be patient and let Mr. Market talk. Once I know the expected directional bias, I will have a solid risk / reward entry because I will be able to define risk at the breakout level regardless of which direction price ultimately arrives at. The key levels I’m watching on the S&P 500 Index are shown on the daily chart below:

If the S&P 500 extends to the upside above the S&P 1,350 price level a test of the 2011 highs will take place. I believe that if tested a second time we could see the 2011 highs taken out and a trip to the S&P 1,420 – 1,450 price levels before year end. Consequently, if price breaks down on the S&P 500 below the S&P 1,295 level I expect price to work down to the March pivot lows. If they breakdown, a trip to the S&P 1,150 – 1,180 area is likely.

Thus the conundrum described above is now in focus. The S&P 500 remains range bound and until a confirmed breakout takes place, I will likely remain neutral with a slight bias to the upside for good measure. However, I would point out I am simply going to be patient and let Mr. Market dictate the terms of price. I am just going to wait Mr. Market out instead of having some kind of trading plan built on assumptions about the outcome of multiple independent variables which at this point are unknown.

My most recent article discussed the likelihood for a small correction in gold and silver. We pulled back quite a bit, but news coming out of Europe and the flight to safety has bounced gold prices back near recent highs. I will likely establish new long positions in gold and silver on a breakout over recent highs that has strong momentum and volume. I continue to believe that in the longer term gold and silver will remain in a bull market due to the continuing devaluation of various currencies by deficit laden, overextended federal governments around the world. The daily chart of gold is shown below:

Gold similarly to the S&P 500 is trading in a range between the recent all-time highs and the breakout level which was offering resistance and now stands as support. If price breaks above the recent highs I will expect a move higher that could close in on $1,700 – $1,750/ounce by the end of the year. If price breaks below the recent breakout level (1,580) a thrust as low as $1,410 – $1,480/ounce could play out in a short period of time. I continue to believe higher prices are far more likely, but I will respect the price action. The weekly chart below of gold prices illustrates the key price levels:

Don't miss a single post from J.W. Jones, sign up at Options Trading Signals.com

Share