Here's What the Next Gold Bull Market Will Look Like

By Jeff Clark

We measured every bull cycle of gold stocks and found there have been eight distinct upcycles since 1975.
We also discovered something exciting: Only one was less than a double. (A second was 99.9%.)
Even more enticing is that the biggest one—a 601.5% advance in the early 2000s—occurred just after a prolonged bear market.

And our current bear market is longer than that one.

To get a sense for the potential upside, we applied the percentage gain from each of those upcycles to our recommended BIG GOLD picks.

We can’t show you our entire portfolio out of fairness to paying subscribers. But look what those gains would mean to GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (based on the June 1 price).

Gold ETF	Current Share Price	1976– 1980	1982– 1983	1986– 1987	1989– 1990	1993– 1994	2000– 2003	2005– 2008	2008– 2011
		554.2%	205.1%	141.8%	51.5%	99.9%	601.5%	206.4%	272.5%
GDX	$19.49	$127.51	$59.45	$47.14	$29.53	$38.96	$136.72	$59.72	$72.60

Keep two things in mind about this table:

1. The percentage gain from each past bull market is calculated using an index. The stronger companies will perform better than a static ETF.

2. It’s not unreasonable to think that the gains in the next bull market will be similar to some of the higher returns listed above. That’s because stocks will be rising from the depths of one of the more severe bear markets.

Here’s what the price for popular royalty company Royal Gold would look like if it matched past bull markets.

Royalty Company	Current Share Price	1976– 1980	1982– 1983	1986– 1987	1989– 1990	1993– 1994	2000– 2003	2005– 2008	2008– 2011
		554.2%	205.1%	141.8%	51.5%	99.9%	601.5%	206.4%	272.5%
Royal Gold	$64.23	$420.21	$195.93	$155.34	$97.30	$128.38	$450.56	$196.79	$239.26

You might think royalty stocks won’t show similar gains going forward. It’s true they’ve already performed well. However, it’s more likely they’ll be wildly popular than anything else. That’s partly because there are only a few of them in this industry.

Now take a look at the prices our top silver pick would hit.

Silver Producer	Current Share Price	1976– 1980	1982– 1983	1986– 1987	1989– 1990	1993– 1994	2000– 2003	2005– 2008	2008– 2011
		554.2%	205.1%	141.8%	51.5%	99.9%	601.5%	206.4%	272.5%
Top BIG GOLD Silver Pick	$3.71	$24.27	$11.32	$8.97	$5.62	$7.42	$26.02	$11.37	$13.82

If silver rises along with gold in the next bull market—something we think is extremely likely—this small niche market will absolutely soar.

No other sector is as depressed as the mining sector. A return to anything close to some of the stronger past bull markets will hand us tremendous gains.

The June issue of BIG GOLD focuses on the top silver pick listed in the table. I’m convinced it will at least triple from current levels in the next precious metals bull market.

We have two very specific reasons why it will do so. And these two factors are unmatched by almost any other mid-tier or major producer.

Get our analysis along with the name of this stock in the just-released BIG GOLD.

We also include a special offer on bullion that has numismatic potential. These coins sell at bullion prices, yet will likely return much greater profit than standard bullion. And they come at discounted prices you won’t find elsewhere.

It’s “The Two Best Silver Plays to Buy Today”—a highly actionable issue that tells you exactly what to buy and why. Get it now.



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Gold Was Up 73% Last Year!

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

Dmitry sipped his coffee drink at his favorite café in Moscow, flipping through the newspaper in front of him. It was full of bad news: currency troubles, ongoing sanctions from the West, rising inflation, and more.

But he ignored all that. He turned to the investment section and began to scan the page, looking for the latest price of one specific investment. He went past the headline that screamed Russia’s inflation rate was up to 11.4% last year, as well as the article detailing the ruble’s debilitating 46.5% fall. He knew all those things and had experienced them firsthand.

He went directly to the page that quoted the price of gold in rubles.

And there it was. And this time, it wasn’t just a short price quote, but a full article on the topic of gold, starting with a headline that warmed his heart.

“Gold Price in Rubles Rises 73% in 2014”

The article detailed how gold had soared last year due to the depreciation of the ruble. What especially pleased him was that gold rose more than the ruble fell. It also outpaced the rise in inflation.

The article included a chart of the last six weeks’ price movement, during which the ruble had taken an especially ugly drop.

Dmitry wasn’t surprised to read that it wasn’t just the gold price in rubles that was up last year…..

The price of gold rose against ALL currencies in 2014—except the US dollar. Yes, gold was up in the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, British pound, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Chinese renminbi, Indian rupee, Swedish krona, Brazilian real, Israeli shekel, and South Korean won.

Even more interesting was that gold outperformed most stock markets around the world…..

Most investors outside North America not only saw their currency lose value but also lost money in their stock market. His fellow Russians were hit especially hard. Whoever owned gold, though, had avoided these debilitating losses and was actually sitting on a profit.

The article concluded by congratulating those with the foresight to buy gold, which, unfortunately, didn’t include many of his fellow citizens—but it did include him.

Dmitry has every right to feel pleased with himself. While inflation raged all around him, the currency fell through the floor, and global crises remained escalated, his investment in gold had done exactly what it was supposed to do: protect him against currency and monetary calamity. In fact, he’d gained more with gold than he lost in ruble purchasing power.

He’d read warnings that this could happen—warnings others had dismissed as the ravings of loony gold bugs. He had been skeptical, frankly, and it hadn’t happened exactly as he thought it would, but now he sure was glad he’d decided to play it safe and bought some gold as insurance.

He wondered what those in North America thought about this phenomenon… Did they see the writing on the global economic wall—or did they imagine they were immune because their stock market had risen so much while gold remained weak in their currency? Did they really believe their central bankers were wizards endowed with supernatural powers others lacked? Didn’t they remember Ben Bernanke insisting in 2007 and 2008 that there was no crisis and that everything was under control?

It seemed to Dmitry that many of them were kidding themselves, because he knew that at some point, the very thing that happened to inflation rates and currency values in his country could happen to theirs. And how gold would respond—as he now knew firsthand.

Like him, sensible Americans who bought gold while it was on sale wouldn’t know the timing but would be prepared for the inevitable outcome of the currency destroying policies their central bank had adopted, just like all the others. He hoped they saw it coming and envied their chance to take advantage of relatively low prices.

Dmitry could hardly wait for tomorrow, the day the January BIG GOLD would be released. And it wouldn’t be just any issue, but a 50 page blockbuster edition that interviewed 17 experts on precious metals and included two actionable steps to kickstart 2015: a discount on international bullion storage and a new recommended stock, one that Jeff Clark described as a must-own company that came with both safety and high potential. He hopes his friends check it out.

The article Gold Was Up 73% Last Year! was originally published at casey research 

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