How to Trade as We Near March Top in Equities

Our focus is to provide you with updated and accurate market price predictions for all of 2018, we believe we are entering a period that will be fantastic for traders and active investors. We believe this recent volatility has shaken out the low volatility expectations and will allow the markets to start moving in a more normal rotational mode going forward. This means we’ll have lots of trading opportunities to profit from.

For those of you who have not been following our research over the past 2 to 3 months, we urge you to visit our Technical Traders Ltd. website to read our published research and to learn how we’ve been calling these moves in the markets for our members. We called the early 2018 market rally weeks before it started. We called the lower price rotation over a month before it happened. We called the bottom in this price correction almost to the day and told our members that we believed a very quick Pennant price formation was set up that will drive prices higher which we have seen this week.

Members know price should move higher leading to a March 15 price cycle peak. After that point, we’ll refresh our analysis for our members and attempt to provide further guidance. Today/Friday we closed our Short position in UVXY for a quick 50% in 9 days.

In this post, we are going to focus on one of our price modeling systems based on Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling and show you why we believe this recent price move will likely stabilize within a range while attempting future moves. Let’s start with the INDU.

WEEKLY DOW JONES CHART

This first chart is the INDU Weekly chart with our Fibonacci Modeling system at work. We’ve highlighted certain areas with notes to help you understand it in more detail. This adaptive modeling system tracks price high and low points in various cycle lengths, then attempts to adapt a major and moderate cycle analysis model to key Fibonacci predictive points. The end result is that we can see where key Fibonacci price trigger levels are and also see what our predictive modeling system is telling us where prices is likely headed.

This weekly, chart shows us that the current support level (originating from near April 2017) is nearly exactly where the current price correction found support. This level is currently acting as a strong base for current price action and will likely continue to provide very strong support going forward. You can also see the Bearish Fibonacci Price Level near 25,776 that is acting like Resistance. Notice that this Bearish Fibonacci Price Level also coincides with the BLUE Fibonacci projected price level.

It is still our opinion that the US major markets will continue moderate price rotation within these levels for the next 5+ days before reaching an intermediate price low cycle near February 21. After this price low cycle is reached, we believe a new price advance will begin to drive the US majors higher reaching a peak near March 15.

DAILY DOW JONES CHART

This next INDU Daily chart provides more detail of our projected analysis. Again, please read the notes we’ve made on this chart to assist you in understanding how we are reading it and interpreting it. The most recent price peak and trough clearly show the volatility spike that happened last week. It also shows us that the recent trough in price aligned almost perfectly with a Bullish Fibonacci Price Level from November 2017. We interpret this as a clear “double bottom” formation at Fibonacci Support.

The purple horizontal line is the Support Level originating from the earlier, Weekly, chart for reference.

This Daily chart shows more detail in terms of the Fibonacci Projected Price Levels and also shows the wide range of price that we are currently experiencing. Over time, this wide range will likely diminish a bit as the trend continues to consolidate price rotation into more narrow bands, but right now we have a very wide range of price volatility that we have to deal with.

Additionally, the current upward price rotation is above the Bullish Fibonacci Price Level from the recent lows. This is a clear indication that prices want to continue to push higher till some new price peak is in place. We expect that will happen fairly soon.

Notice how the Fibonacci Projected Price Levels are quite a way away from the current price levels? This is because the recent increase in volatility is alerting the price modeling system that we expect larger range price rotation. As newer and more moderate price rotations form, these levels will begin to consolidate a bit with new price levels.

As of right now, our analysis has really not changed much since last week. We believe the Feb 21 price low will prompt a rally into the March 15 price peak. At that time, we’ll take a fresh look at these modeling systems to see what they can tell us about the future.

DAILY SP500 (SSO ETF) CHART

The last chart I wanted to share with you is the Daily SSO chart. This chart helps to firm up our analysis of what to expect in the immediate future as well as continues to support our analysis that the US Majors will likely stall near current levels and retrace slightly headed into the Feb 21 price low. Remember, we don’t believe this Feb 21 price low will be anywhere close to the recent lows. This move lower will be much more subdued and moderate in size and scope.

With this SSO chart, the Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is showing a potential “Major Bottom” near the recent lows. This happens when the system identifies a potentially massive or major price bottom. Over time, the modeling system will confirm this trigger or replace it with a new trigger when it forms.

We still see the massive price volatility in this chart. We still see the Fibonacci Price Trigger Levels that tell us we are below the Bearish Price Trigger (near the recent top) and above the Bullish Price Trigger (near the recent bottom), so what should expect price to do? At this point, the most recent Price Trigger Breach is the Bullish Price Trigger – thus we are expecting prices to continue higher overall. The new Bearish Fibonacci Price Trigger, below the current prices, is what we would watch for any signs of price weakness. When that level is breached, then we begin a new potential down leg.

Right now, we will issue this one simple warning – the upside move is likely to be ending soon and preparing for our February 21 price low point. The fact that prices are showing that they’ve already reached the Fibonacci Projected Price Level is telling us this upside leg may be over for now which is the reason we exited our short UVXY position here for a 50% profit.

Next, we expect the US majors to rotate lower for a few days headed into a February 21 price low. This will be following by an almost immediate and strong upside push to a March 15th price peak.

This means we will be setting up for some great trades over the next few days/weeks. Imagine being able to know that near February 20-22, we should be able to “pick” the best opportunities for quick trades where the US majors begin a new up leg? Also, imagine how critical this type of information can be to you going forward?

Our research team at The Technical Traders site has a combined 53 years of trading and analysis experience. We develop specialized and proprietary price modeling systems, like these, to assist us in being able to provide our members with an “edge” in the markets. Of course, we are not always 100% accurate with our predictions – no one can be 100% accurate. We simply do our best to make sure our members get the best we can offer them each and every day. We want them to understand the opportunities that are playing out and we help them find the best trade triggers for profits each week.

Stay tuned for our next post on Sunday with an instant trade setup, 

so be sure to join our free mailing list!

If you find this information valuable and would like to include it in your daily trading activities, visit here and sign up for the Technical Traders Wealth Building Newsletter today!

Chris Vermeulen

Engineering Regular Income and Profits from Your Trading

Today's article is from my trading partner, Brian McAboy of Inside Out Trading.  Brian is a retired engineer and has a rather unconventional yet very effective approach to helping people become successful traders.  He's been helping traders for over 11 years, so he's been around long enough to know what works and what doesn't.

Take just a minute for this.  You'll be glad you did.

There are two very specific success traits that pertain to you and your trading. The first one is absolutely necessary for you to give yourself a reasonable chance of making it. And the second one is to keep you from wasting tons of time, money and psychological capital

Now as you know, trading is not a "get rich quick" kind of activity. This is NOT a place where anyone off the street can stroll in, grab a system, start throwing money at the markets and live happily ever after. Just doesn't work like that

Trading IS a true profession, a skill based occupation, and not a place for the squeamish or weak of heart. So for a person to expect to be "living the lifestyle" overnight is just not realistic. But the question then becomes, "How long should it realistically take?"

Too many traders let things go way too long in a less than satisfactory state

They simply let time to continue to pass, doing things generally the same way they have been for months on end, with the same disappointing results, well beyond what is really a reasonable time to allow

You see, there are generally two aspects of patience when it comes to trading:

1. You have to be patient enough for things happen, for your trading to develop and mature.
2. The other side of patience is knowing when you've reached a point where it's pretty obvious that your current approach just isn't working and it's time to stop, reassess, and change course.

"How long should it take?" is a common question, and the real answer is that you can get to the point of real, business like, reliable consistent profits in 3 to 6 months, a year at the outside

If it's taking YEARS, then something is wrong and you're really just spinning your wheels, wasting time and money and cheating yourself out of the success that you should be enjoying. There is also a huge personal cost to letting things take longer than they should

One trader expressed this very well,

"I've been trading futures for about 9 years now with inconsistent results.  I've made the usual mistakes, buying too many courses, focusing on the results not the process and being too impatient to trade to wait for valid setups. 

After listening to your video this weekend where you make the distinction between being patient in the beginning and giving yourself time, and beyond a certain point (3 - 6months) considering that it may be time to be impatient about your progress, this made me realize I've been allowing myself to coast for far too long, and that's impacted my confidence and the belief that I can turn trading into a business with a consistent return." 

Complacency, NOT being impatient when it's time to, is one of the biggest cost centers many traders have

There's the financial cost of missed profits and unnecessary losses, plus the opportunity costs of not enjoying the fruits of your time being spent on other matters of course, but she noted the personal, psychological cost as well

The thing is, you chose trading so that you could have freedom, financial and time freedom, not a J-O-B. You wanted trading to be a truly enjoyable activity that generates income and wealth and provides security and peace of mind

If you've been trading for more than a year, and your trading is not where you want it to be, nor is it really even close, and looking at the trajectory that you're now on, it doesn't look like you're going to get there anytime soon, then perhaps it's time to consider a different approach. That's why I suggest that you check out the training masterclass I created for you

Here are the details on the masterclass,

 "Rewrite Your Trading Story"

How to become a confident, consistent and profitable trader in 60 days or less even if you've never had a profitable month.

Here's what you will discover....

• The "Little 3" and the "Big 3" and Why the Wrong Focus Will Have You Chasing Profits Forever
• "The Gap" and How It Keeps Traders Jumping From One System to the Next, Without Ever Realizing The 'Easy Consistent Profits' Promised by the System Sellers
• One Specific 'Hidden' Lie Traders Tell Themselves That Continually Drains Your Time, Capital and Confidence
• Why Self Sabotage Goes On For YEARS For Most Traders, And How To Permanently Eliminate It From Your Trading
• The Four Stage Process To Make YOUR Trading Profitable And Predictable

Click Here to Register and Move the Needle in Your Trading

See you in the markets!
Brian McAboy
Trading Business Coach

Carley Garner's Higher Probability Commodity Trading

Carley Garner's new book "Higher Probability Commodity Trading" takes readers on an unprecedented journey through the treacherous commodity markets; shedding light on topics rarely discussed in trading literature from a unique perspective, with the intention of increasing the odds of success for market participants.

In its quest to guide traders through the process of commodity market analysis, strategy development, and risk management, Higher Probability Commodity Trading discusses several alternative market concepts and unconventional views such as option selling tactics, hedging futures positions with options, and combining the practice of fundamental, technical, seasonal, and sentiment analysis to gauge market price changes.

Carley, is a frequent contributor of commodity market analysis to CNBC's Mad Money TV show hosted by Jim Cramer. She has also been a futures and options broker, where for over a decade she has had a front row seat to the victories and defeats the commodity markets deal to traders.

Garner has a knack for portraying complex commodity trading concepts, in an easy-to-read and entertaining format. Readers of Higher Probability Commodity Trading are sure to walk away with a better understanding of the futures and options market, but more importantly with the benefit of years of market lessons learned without the expensive lessons.

Get Higher Probability Commodity Trading on Amazon....Get it Here!

It Can’t Wait Any Longer – It's Deja Vu in the Markets

The stock market tends to repeat itself on a regular basis. Why? Because it moves mainly based on the emotions of market participants, with the exception of extreme times when the masses are moving the market with extreme fear or greed, at which point they are flooding the market with buy or sell orders to create a final pop or drop in the market just before a major market reversal.

As with everything in the universe, everything moves in cycles, periods of expansion and contraction, and there are regular wave like patterns that happen on a regular basis no matter the time frame one is reviewing on a stock chart.

Here are three charts, each showing a similar price pattern of extreme washout lows, followed by roughly a 1 1/2 month rally taking investors on a roller coaster ride from fear and complete panic to greedy "know it alls". In short [no pun intended] U.S. large cap stocks look and feel toppy here. I feel a correction is likely to take place any day now, and the big question is “how much will the stock market pullback? Will it be another 4-5% correction similar to the chart examples above? Or will it be something larger 8-15% correction?

Chris Vermeulen


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Precious Metals Take Center Stage....Let's Follow the Yellow Brick Road

By Jeff Thomas

For over a hundred years, it’s been theorised that author L. Frank Baum wrote his 1900 book, “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz”, as a fanciful way to explain the economic situation at the time and that the Yellow Brick Road was a reference to the path created by gold ownership. Whether or not the theory is correct, for many people today, “Follow the Yellow Brick Road” might serve as a mantra for alleviating economic woes.

What will happen is that one day, gold will suddenly be up $100 per ounce, then the next day, $200 per ounce. At first the pundits will be claiming that it’s an anomaly, but as it continues rising, a point will be reached when the average person says to himself, “This seems to be a trend. I’d better buy some gold.” 

Unfortunately, once the trend is underway, the price that day will have no bearing on whether gold is available. Your local coin shop may be sold out. If you go online, the mints may say that demand is exceeding supply. Large entities will be buying all they can get and the smaller buyers will be way down on the order list, unlikely to take delivery of even a single ounce.

These Are the Good Old Days

Gold has experienced a four year bear market and only recently has begun to rise again. But is it in reality a barbarous relic? Not by a long shot. For over 5,000 years, whenever people have experienced erratic economic periods, they’ve bought gold in order to stabilise their economic position. This has particularly been true whenever fiat currencies have been on the rise and were in danger of hyper-inflating, as in recent years. Most currencies are in decline against the U.S. dollar—a currency which, itself, is very much in danger of collapse in the not-too-distant future.

In the ’70s, I was buying gold in London, as it rose from $35. It reached a high of $850 in January, 1980, then crashed. When gold dropped below $400, I began buying Krugerrands. Sounds like a bargain, and yet, word on the street was that gold was headed further south. But I was buying long. I was not playing the market; I was building my economic insurance policy. I wasn’t too fussed over price fluctuations, as my gold holdings were meant to cover me if my other investments proved to be a mistake.

At present, gold is well above the high of 1989, but, if we adjust for inflation, we see that gold is actually a bargain at present. This excellent Casey Research chart from 2014 explains it better than mere words:

This tells us that $8,800 would not be an unreasonable level for gold today, if conditions were as dire as they were in 1980. However, conditions are far more dire—debt levels are far beyond any historical levels and markets are in a bubble, just waiting for the arrival of a pin.

A decade ago, when gold topped $700, I predicted $1,500 at some point and even my closest colleagues wondered what I’d been smoking. But it turned out that my prediction was, if anything, conservative. Over the last four years, some of the world’s most informed prognosticators—Eric Sprott, Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, and Jim Sinclair—have all predicted gold to rise to between $5,000 and $7,000, and some have suggested numbers as high as $50,000. But this hasn’t happened. Are they wrong? No, it just hasn’t happened as of yet.

Conversely, Harry Dent has predicted a drop to $750. So, who’s right? Well, actually, they may all be right. After a crash in the markets, deflation is a certainty, as brokers and investors dump investments of every type in order to cover margin losses. This panic sell off will most assuredly include gold, even though the holders will not wish to sell their gold. This panic promises to create an immediate and possibly very dramatic downward spike in gold.

However, large numbers of long term investors already have their orders in for any price below $1,000. If the spike drops below that number, it will therefore be brief, as every ounce that hits the market at $999 is scooped up. In addition, the Federal Reserve will make good on its decades-long promise to roll the printing presses to counter any sudden deflation. That very act will light the fuse on the gold rocket and send it skyward.

Will the Sun Rise in the Morning or Set in the Evening?

The argument over whether gold will drop to $750 or rise to $5,000 is a pointless one. Any understanding of basic economics assures us that we shall see both sudden deflation and dramatic inflation. It’s as natural and inevitable as sunrise and sunset. (By the way, several of the above individuals have standing bets with each other as to the $750 number. The prize? An ounce of gold.)

But it matters little who will win the bets. What matters is the overview. Rickety economic times are now upon us and they will soon morph into crisis times. In such times, precious metals always return to centre stage, as paper currencies and electronic currencies return to their intrinsic worth of zero. Gold does not so much rise against fiat currencies, as fiat currencies collapse against gold.

Most assuredly, we shall see a dramatic rise in gold, but, just as in the ‘70s, the average person will fail to understand why and will simply chase the upward trend. When gold hits $2,000, but no one is willing to sell for under, say, $2,500, those who are chasing the trend will pay the $2,500 and that will become the new price across the board. Then it will leap higher—again and again, as monetary panic grips the investment world. The inflation-adjusted 1980 price of $8,800 should not be a surprise at all—in fact it would be low, as, in the coming years, conditions will be far more dire than in 1980. Gold may well blow through $10,000. Even the $50,000 figure is not impossible, as we shall be seeing a runaway bull market where those chasing the trend carry gold beyond any rational value.

But gold has an intrinsic value. 2,000 years ago, an ounce of gold could buy you a good suit of clothes. That’s still true today. A gold mania will fuel the gold price beyond anything logical, but a correction will be equally inevitable, dropping it to its intrinsic value. We shall see a gold rise for the record books. The wise investor should already have stocked up his supply of physical gold and gotten rid of gold ETFs. He should already have his seat belt fastened and ready for take off. We’re off to see the wizard.

Editor’s Note: Owning gold is the first step to protecting your wealth from stock market crashes, currency collapses or destructive government policies. But there are many other steps you can take to protect yourself during an economic collapse. We put together a free video to show you exactly how. 

Click here to watch this video now.

The article Follow the Yellow Brick Road was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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Weekly Gold Futures Summary with Mike Seery

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,134 an ounce while currently trading at 1,122 down about $12 this week trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average near a 2 week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure.

The monthly unemployment report number was released this morning in the United States adding 173,000 new jobs which was below consensus having very little impact on gold prices today as I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend.

Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven but things have settled down putting short term pressure on gold.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

When Do You Add To Your Winning Trade?

This has always been a very interesting question because it can create a situation of going from rags to riches or from riches to rags in a very short amount of time. Many times I see traders abuse pyramiding or adding to positions with utter lack of any type of money management system in place and letting it ride which usually ends up in a complete wipeout of capital and sometimes even worse.

Commodity prices can move very quickly with large gains or loses like we experienced in the 2008 crash of stock and commodity prices, so you always have to use stops and not fall in love or marry a position. In my opinion the answer to this question is add only once to the trade if that position has made you at least 2%-3% of your account balance while still having stop losses on all positions that equal 2% loss at a maximum risk.

Remember your stop loses will be different on both positions because of the fact that you entered those trades at a different date and price.

Here's more of Mike's calls on commodities for this week.....Just Click Here



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Free Video Series: Enjoy all of John Carters Options Videos.....Before it's to Late

In 2014 our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options changed the way traders look at trading options with his free and easy to understand videos and webinars that taught all of us how to put his methods to work.

In February John is preparing to do it all again by bringing us a new series and most likely all of his current videos will be taken offline. So we want to make sure you get to watch them all while you can.

Just click on the titles to access videos......

    My Favorite ways to Trade Options on ETF’s

    What the Market Makers Don’t Want You to Know

    High Frequency Trading….the effect the Rise of the Machines has on ...

    What's Behind the BIG Trade, How to Grow a Small Account into a Big...

Make sure to also get John's free eBook "Understanding Options" > Just Click Here

See you in the markets!

Ray C. Parrish

aka the Crude Oil Trader

Gold Was Up 73% Last Year!

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

Dmitry sipped his coffee drink at his favorite café in Moscow, flipping through the newspaper in front of him. It was full of bad news: currency troubles, ongoing sanctions from the West, rising inflation, and more.

But he ignored all that. He turned to the investment section and began to scan the page, looking for the latest price of one specific investment. He went past the headline that screamed Russia’s inflation rate was up to 11.4% last year, as well as the article detailing the ruble’s debilitating 46.5% fall. He knew all those things and had experienced them firsthand.

He went directly to the page that quoted the price of gold in rubles.

And there it was. And this time, it wasn’t just a short price quote, but a full article on the topic of gold, starting with a headline that warmed his heart.

“Gold Price in Rubles Rises 73% in 2014”

The article detailed how gold had soared last year due to the depreciation of the ruble. What especially pleased him was that gold rose more than the ruble fell. It also outpaced the rise in inflation.

The article included a chart of the last six weeks’ price movement, during which the ruble had taken an especially ugly drop.

Dmitry wasn’t surprised to read that it wasn’t just the gold price in rubles that was up last year…..

The price of gold rose against ALL currencies in 2014—except the US dollar. Yes, gold was up in the euro, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, British pound, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Chinese renminbi, Indian rupee, Swedish krona, Brazilian real, Israeli shekel, and South Korean won.

Even more interesting was that gold outperformed most stock markets around the world…..

Most investors outside North America not only saw their currency lose value but also lost money in their stock market. His fellow Russians were hit especially hard. Whoever owned gold, though, had avoided these debilitating losses and was actually sitting on a profit.

The article concluded by congratulating those with the foresight to buy gold, which, unfortunately, didn’t include many of his fellow citizens—but it did include him.

Dmitry has every right to feel pleased with himself. While inflation raged all around him, the currency fell through the floor, and global crises remained escalated, his investment in gold had done exactly what it was supposed to do: protect him against currency and monetary calamity. In fact, he’d gained more with gold than he lost in ruble purchasing power.

He’d read warnings that this could happen—warnings others had dismissed as the ravings of loony gold bugs. He had been skeptical, frankly, and it hadn’t happened exactly as he thought it would, but now he sure was glad he’d decided to play it safe and bought some gold as insurance.

He wondered what those in North America thought about this phenomenon… Did they see the writing on the global economic wall—or did they imagine they were immune because their stock market had risen so much while gold remained weak in their currency? Did they really believe their central bankers were wizards endowed with supernatural powers others lacked? Didn’t they remember Ben Bernanke insisting in 2007 and 2008 that there was no crisis and that everything was under control?

It seemed to Dmitry that many of them were kidding themselves, because he knew that at some point, the very thing that happened to inflation rates and currency values in his country could happen to theirs. And how gold would respond—as he now knew firsthand.

Like him, sensible Americans who bought gold while it was on sale wouldn’t know the timing but would be prepared for the inevitable outcome of the currency destroying policies their central bank had adopted, just like all the others. He hoped they saw it coming and envied their chance to take advantage of relatively low prices.

Dmitry could hardly wait for tomorrow, the day the January BIG GOLD would be released. And it wouldn’t be just any issue, but a 50 page blockbuster edition that interviewed 17 experts on precious metals and included two actionable steps to kickstart 2015: a discount on international bullion storage and a new recommended stock, one that Jeff Clark described as a must-own company that came with both safety and high potential. He hopes his friends check it out.

The article Gold Was Up 73% Last Year! was originally published at casey research 

Get out latest FREE eBooK "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here

Gold: Time to Prepare for Big Gains?

By Casey Research

Years of a severe downturn in the gold market have left very few bulls to speak out in favor of the yellow metal. Here are some positive opinions on the future of the precious metal, from the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit.

David Tice, founder of the Prudent Bear Fund, believes we are heading for a “global currency reset” that will reduce the role of the dollar in global trade. Central banks, he says, don’t possess all the gold they claim to, and the unwinding of the paper gold market probably isn’t far down the road—it could even ignite the next major crisis.

The paper gold market (for example, exchange-traded funds like GLD) has massive leverage, with a ratio of 90:1 or 100:1 of paper claims on gold bullion. If only a small fraction of owners convert their paper to physical gold, says Tice, it will create a “no bid” price environment and cause the price of gold to explode.
He believes that once the paper gold market collapses, gold will be priced on the basis of supply/demand for the physical metal—which means it could be headed for $3,000 to $8,000 per ounce.

Ed Steer, editor of Casey Research’s popular e-letter Gold and Silver Daily, is equally bullish on gold… in the long term, because right now, he believes the gold market to be rigged: “Central banks intervene; that’s what they do.”

They control not only gold, but also silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and oil. He says there are two possible reasons that Germany hasn’t gotten its gold back that it had stored in the U.S. — either the gold doesn’t exist or there’s so much paper written against it that it can’t be moved for collateral reasons.

While there’s not much an investor can do about gold manipulation, Steer believes that the manipulators’ schemes will blow up in their faces sooner than later.

Summit regular Rick Rule, chairman of Sprott US Holdings, isn’t worried about the bear market in gold.
“What matters is your response to the bear market,” he says. “If you have the wits, courage, knowledge, and cash to take advantage of them, bear markets are great.”

He’s keeping his eyes peeled on junior gold mining stocks, which, he says, are hugely attractive right now.
“Our market has fallen by 75% in three years. That means it’s 75% more attractive than in 2010, when we were all in love with it. Within a few years, we’ll look back on today’s low prices as the good old days.”
Louis James, chief investment strategist of Casey’s Metals & Mining division, also welcomes the opportunities to buy low that the current slump in gold prices provides.

He personally owns stock of three of the junior miners present in the Map Room at the Casey Fall Summit. All three of them have exceptionally high-grade projects that are delivering what they promised.

To get all of Louis James’ stock picks (and those of the other speakers), as well as every single presentation of the Summit, order your 26+-hour Summit Audio Collection now. It’s available in CD and/or MP3 format. Learn more here.

The article Gold: Time to Prepare for Big Gains? was originally published at casey research

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Free Webinar....How to Trade Options Like a Professional with John Carter

It's ON.....John Carters next free webinar is this Thursday, July 31st at 8:00 p.m. est

Just click here to get your reserved spot ASAP

In this free webinar John will share:

  *   What I’ve discovered about professional options traders that they don’t want you to know

  *   The idea of “options stacking” to structure your trade in a way that gives you the best possible odds of success

  *   How to plan your trading position around a setup instead of the other way around

  *   Why structuring your trades as a campaign around a setup will yield the maximum return while reducing your risk

  *   How to be proactive in your trading instead of reactive and much more

As always with John's webinars they fill up fast so get your seat now. Just Click Here to Register Today!

We'll see you Thursday!

The Gold ETF Trader

Free Webinar....How to Trade Options Like a Professional with John Carter

Gold Prediction using Statistics & Technical Analysis

Here is my gold prediction (silver and gold mining stocks, should be the same) looking forward 24 months.
Since the top in gold in 2011 gold has been selling off. Depending on how you analyze the market, this 3 year sell off could be seen as consolidation within a major cyclical bull market or that it’s in a bear market. But know this, either way, the outlook is bullish, and all gold has to do is find a bottom here and rally above the $1400 per ounce level. This would kick start a major feeding frenzy of gold buying.

Gold bear market in the past have on average corrected 33% and lasted a total of 550 days. So if we look at the stats of the current pullback in gold it has dropped 38% and about 700 days long. Time for a bottom and bull market? It sure seems like it.

You can see my recent report on the U.S. Dollar and Gold Forecast.
 

Gold Prediction Technical Outlook:

Gold remains in a down trend, but looks to be starting a possible stage 1 basing pattern. Technical analysis is pointing to strength as the MACD moving higher, relative strength, and the down trendline show price and momentum being bullish.

A few weeks ago the chart completed a Golden Cross. This is not shown on the chart, but it is when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA. Investors tend to look at this as a major long term buy signal, although I do not use it for any of my analysis or timing of the market.

If historical data, statistics, and technical analysis prove to be correct we can expect gold to rise. My gold prediction is for price to reach $2300 - $2500 per ounce within 24 months.

Gold Prediction Conclusion:

The average gold bull market last roughly 450 days and posts a gain of 95%. So with the current correction which is beyond these levels already, expect price to firm up this year and complete the stage 1 base. Note that until gold breaks out of its Stage 1 Basing pattern, I will remain bearish/neutral on the metal. There is a huge opportunities else where unfolding.

Chris Vermeulen

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Peter Schiff Shares His Offshore Strategies

By Nick Giambruno

I’d bet that most International Man readers are familiar with Peter Schiff. He is a financial commentator and author, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, and is known for accurately predicting the 2008 financial crisis.

He also has a very keen understanding of internationalization. Peter shares with me his strategies in this must read discussion below that I am happy to bring exclusively to International Man readers. (If you are not already a member, you can join for free here.)

Nick Giambruno: Peter, do you see the potential for another financial crisis in the U.S. playing out in the not so distant future?

Peter Schiff: Unfortunately, yes. I mean, how soon is very difficult to tell. In fact, right now you’ve got a high level of complacency. The stock markets are rallying to new highs, nominal highs. People seem to be convinced that the worst is behind us, that the central banks of the world have solved their problems by papering them over. But, you know, I don’t think they’ve solved anything. I think they’ve compounded the underlying problems that caused the last crisis, and so now the next crisis will be that much worse because of what the central banks did, in particular the Federal Reserve.

The Fed is right now trying to prop the economy up, the housing market up with cheap money, and it is operating under the delusion that one day it can take that cheap money away and the economy and the housing market will just sustain on their own, but that’s not possible. The Fed is building an economy that is completely dependent on that cheap money. And so if you take it away, the economy implodes, but if you don’t take it away, then it’s worse.

Nick Giambruno: So what measures do you see coming into place—things such as capital controls?

Peter Schiff: Well, certainly as currencies depreciate, governments look to try to find ways to stop the bleeding. What’s really is going on with inflation is that you have a huge transfer of wealth from savers and lenders to debtors, and of course the US government is the world’s biggest debtor, but a lot of American voters are in debt too.

If you’re a saver and you don’t want to watch your assets confiscated through the printing press, then you’re going to try to protect yourself. You might do that by moving your dollars abroad, converting them to foreign currencies, trying to get out of harm’s way, and that’s when you have the government potentially coming in with capital controls.

Putting taxes on foreign currency transactions or maybe outright prohibiting them altogether, that will make it more difficult for you or more expensive to take protective measures. I think we’ve already got the beginnings of capital controls in the United States. The government is making it very difficult for Americans to do business abroad. Many foreign financial institutions, banks, and even bullion depositories are refusing to do business with American citizens for fear of retaliation by the IRS or other government agencies.

Nick Giambruno: So what can Americans and others living under a desperate government do to minimize this risk?

Peter Schiff: Well, the first thing that you could do is minimize your purchasing power risk. So you don’t have to get your money into a foreign bank or foreign brokerage account to get out of the dollar. I help Americans diversify globally within a US account, but their portfolio consists of foreign assets, whether it’s foreign bonds, government bonds, corporate bonds, foreign stocks, dividend-paying stocks, commodities, or precious metals. These are all things that will protect purchasing power in an inflationary time period, and things that the federal government—the Federal Reserve—can’t levy the inflation tax on.

If you’re more worried about political risk—about the US government seizing your assets—then you want to take the next step. This is not just getting out of the dollar, but getting your money out of the country. But again, the US government is making that more difficult right now.

I know personally. I set up a foreign brokerage firm as a subsidiary of my foreign bank, which I also set up, called Euro Pacific Bank. I did this predominantly for foreigners who were having trouble investing with my US brokerage firm. The securities rules and regulations are now so onerous that it almost caused me to view any foreigner as a terrorist. So if somebody in Australia wanted to open up an account with me, there was so much paperwork involved that oftentimes they would just give up halfway through the process. So what I did is I set up this foreign bank so that I wouldn’t have to operate under those confines, so I can be more competitive to a foreign investor, but I can’t offer these services to Americans.

My foreign bank is no different than many other foreign banks. In order to really protect the privacy of my foreign customers, I can’t accept American customers. And if I accepted American customers, my compliance cost would be so high that I would have to charge my foreign customers more for transactions to try to stay in business. So to mitigate all that regulation and the potential of having to share all the information on my foreign clients with the US government, I’m just not taking American customers with my foreign bank.

Nick Giambruno: So Euro Pacific Bank, where is it headquartered and why did you choose that jurisdiction?

Peter Schiff: It’s in St Vincent and the Grenadines (the Caribbean). I did it for a number of reasons: it’s close to me, but also because of the banking laws. You have secrecy, privacy, and you have no tax. They’re not going to impose any income tax on my company as an offshore bank, they’re also not going to impose any taxes, any withholding taxes on my bank’s customers’ interest income or their capital gains. And no one is going to pierce the wall of secrecy. You’re going to have to go in to a St. Vincent’s court and get a local court order to get any information from my bank.

The bank is regulated, but it’s not nearly as onerous as the type of regulations that I would face trying to do this business from the United States. In fact, some of the things we’re doing offshore might be completely impossible because they would no longer be economically viable if I tried to do them in America, but I can do them offshore because the government doesn’t impose these artificial barriers.(Editor’s Note: You can find out more about Euro Pacific Bank here.)

Nick Giambruno: Generally speaking, which countries are you particularly bullish on?

Peter Schiff: It’s kind of like a monetary or economic triage; I’m always looking around the world to see which countries are in the least bad shape, which countries are the least reckless and the least irresponsible. You really can’t find any one country that’s doing it perfectly. You just have to find the ones that are making the fewest mistakes.

And I think high on that list are Singapore and Hong Kong. Those markets are relatively free of regulation, free of taxation. I mean, it’s not nonexistent, but on a relative basis you have a lot more freedom there, and so you have a lot more prosperity there. You have much better economic fundamentals. And not just in those two places, but in Southeast Asia in general, in a lot of the emerging economies, you’ll find a lot less government and a lot more freedom. People are working harder, they’re saving, they’re producing, and they’re exporting. You don’t have these trade deficits, budget deficits, and you don’t have armies of people looking to retire on government entitlements. In Europe, we still like Switzerland even though they are making mistakes tying their currency to the euro. I think eventually they will change that policy. Scandinavia, we have been investors in Norway, we’ve been investors in Sweden. Also Australia and New Zealand have been longtime favorites. We’ve been investing down there or even closer to home in Canada. We do have some investments in South America. We’re diversifying around the world trying to get into the right countries, the right currencies, the right asset classes.

Nick Giambruno: On a different note, we’ve seen the number of US citizens renouncing their citizenship sharply increase. We have also seen high-profile people like Tina Turner and Eduardo Saverin give up their US citizenship. Would Tina be eligible to use Euro Pacific Bank?

Peter Schiff: Yes, once you renounce your US citizenship. The only people who can’t bank with me are American citizens, or green card holders. So once you are no longer an American citizen, as long as you don’t reside in the United States, then you are welcome at the bank.

I think a lot of people are doing this obviously for tax reasons, although they can’t necessarily claim it’s for tax reasons. You have to fill out a form if you want to renounce your citizenship—which, by the way, you can only get from a foreign embassy or consulate. Those forms used to be free. Now they’re $500 apiece. So think about that. If they can charge you $500 for that form, they could charge $5,000, they could charge $5,000,000. They could basically make it impossible for you to leave. And they’re trying to make it more difficult ever since Eduardo Saverin from Facebook went to Singapore.

Now the government is trying to come up with all sorts of ways to punish Americans who try to give up their citizenship, and this really is the sign of a nation in decay. Fifty years ago, nobody would want to give up American citizenship. They would cherish it. The fact that so many people are paying tremendous amounts of money to get this albatross off their neck shows you how much times have changed, that an American passport is not an asset to be cherished but a liability that people are willing to pay to get rid of.

Nick Giambruno: And what about yourself? Do you believe you are adequately diversified internationally?

Peter Schiff: I think my investments are; I own a lot of foreign stocks. I have a lot of precious metals, I have a lot of mining shares. But I still live in the United States, so I’m obviously still vulnerable here. My family is here, so I haven’t done anything about a physical exit strategy. Although I do think I have financial resources that would afford me the ability to relocate, but I haven’t actually taken any steps other than setting up a foreign business. I have the foreign bank in the Caribbean. I have a brokerage firm Euro Pacific Canada, and so I’ve got offices up there.

I’m also thinking about opening up an office in Singapore and trying to move more of my business—particularly my asset management business—to move it from the US. Not only because of favorable tax treatment outside the US, but because of the regulatory environment. If you want to be globally competitive, you need to be in an area where you can minimize these costs because if I have those costs and my competitors don’t, then I am at a disadvantage. And also because I think that over time people are going to be more and more hesitant about sending their money to the United States. So if I’m going to manage money, I might have to manage it offshore, because I think people will be worried about sending it here. They might be worried that the US government might take it.

If it ever gets really, really bad that you feel that you have to leave, by then it might be illegal to take any gold or silver out of the country. Right now you can take more than $10,000 worth of cash or cash equivalents—which would include gold bullion—out of the country as long as you tell the government that you’re taking it. And if you don’t tell them and they catch you, there’s a big fine and jail penalty. But one day it might not be the case. It might be that you are prohibited from taking any significant amount of money out of the country, and who knows what the penalty might be if they catch you. But if it’s already out of the country, then you don’t have to worry, because you’re leaving with nothing and the money is on the other side of the border waiting for you.
 
Nick Giambruno: So the idea is to preempt capital controls?

Peter Schiff: Yeah, well, you get out the window before they slam it shut. That’s the whole idea, and right now those windows are shutting all around as more and more offshore institutions are saying “no thank you” to an American customer. But the other reason that you want to act sooner too is if they impose exchange controls or fees on purchasing precious metals. They don’t ban them, but they have a big tax on the transaction or a big tax on the foreign exchange. If you want to buy Swiss francs, they can have a transaction tax. You want to get your money out of the dollar before those taxes are imposed, because if you wait until they’re imposed, then you can’t get as much money out, because a lot of it is being lost to taxes.

In getting out of the dollar, you’re trying to avoid the inflation tax, but they’re hitting you with some other kind of tax in the process because that’s really what they are trying to do. A lot of people are worrying about the income tax or the estate tax and they go through elaborate means to try to minimize those taxes, but then they leave themselves vulnerable to what might be the biggest tax of all: and that’s the inflation tax. So you have to act to protect yourself before so many people are trying to protect themselves that the government makes it almost impossible to do so.

Editor’s Note: Internationalization is your ultimate insurance policy. Whether it’s with a second passport, offshore physical gold storage, or other measures, it is critically important that you dilute the amount of control the bureaucrats in your home country wield over you by diversifying your political risk.

You can find Casey Research’s A-Z guide on internationalization by clicking here.

The article Peter Schiff Shares His Offshore Strategies was originally published at International Man

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FREE WEBINAR: How To Trade Options – The Complete Roadmap

Join our trading partner Doc Severson for his next free webinar "How To Trade Options – The Complete Roadmap". Doc has made this easy by scheduling four live webinars, so just pick the time that fits your schedule best and register now.

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Doc has put together a short video explaining exactly what he is going to cover in this webinar.

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Here are just a few of the details........

    •    The real secrets that successful options traders won’t tell you!

    •    How a one trick pony loses every time

    •    How to prepare and profit from any market condition

    •    How easy options trading can be with the right tools

    •    Why these four strategies will set you up for life

    •    How options trading can fit into your schedule…not vice versa.

    •    And one secret about volatility that could save your account

Watch the video now and please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think

See you in the markets!


FREE WEBINAR: How To Trade Options – The Complete Roadmap

The Insiders Guide to the Big Trade....this weeks free webinar

It's time for another wildly popular "game changing" free webinar, "The Insiders Guide to the Big Trade", from our trading partner John Carter at Simpler Trading.

It all starts this Tuesday, February 25th at 8:00 p.m. EST 

Get your seat now!

In this free online class we will share with you:

   *     The common thread these companies share

   *     How you can minimize your risk on these trades

   *     What time frames you should watch

   *     When to avoid the markets like the plague

   *     The best stocks to use – and why you need to trade options on them

          And much more…...

If you haven't seen it make sure to catch John's video from earlier this week. He showed us some live trades in his actual account that puts some of these methods to work. One of these trades he shows us from January 14th is a definite must see!

Just visit John's registration page and mark your calendar. 

See you on Tuesday!


Register for "The Insiders Guide to the Big Trade"

Traders and their Retirement....a Three Part Video Series/Download

Wendy Kirkland reached out to us at The Crude Oil Trader a few weeks ago and shared her "Merit Paycheck" video series with us to review. Our review is in and the results are....All of our readers should watch this video.

She's a very smart lady with some tips for those traders and investors looking at retirement and she has bonus downloads and reports once you start watching to make sure you get the most out of it. In fact, what you learn in this training series can be easily duplicated by you right away without you buying a single thing.

Just click here to hear from Wendy and get her videos

As always we want to know what our readers are thinking so please feel free to leave a message and let us know what you think about Wendys methods.

See you in the markets,
The Gold ETF Trader

Traders and their Retirement....a Three Part Video Series/Download

Trading the Trend....Is Your Strategy Working?

This week our trading partner Todd Mitchell is sharing his unique trading strategies and we are finding they aren't for everyone. And, especially not for those people who like to use complicated software or get handcuffed to some "black box" trading system.

But it's a great insight into how professional E-Mini traders place winning trades everyday. You have to watch Todd's free presentation "The Simple Truth About Trends"

Todd proves that the key to pulling money of the markets - whether you're trading stocks, Forex, E-Mini futures or Options - is to trade with the prevailing trend. Yet, most people doing it all wrong. They're missing critical clues in price, getting in too late and not exiting their trade before the trend turns.

However, after watching this free video you'll have more knowledge about the trend than 90% of other traders.

Inside this presentation you'll discover:

- 3 Critical Bullish Patterns in Price
- 3 Important Bearish Patterns in Price
- 3 Little-Known Truths in Trend That Apply in all Markets in all Timeframes
- How to Spot Reversals Before They Happen
- How to Determine the Strength of the Market


There's over 1,000 comments of people raving about this content and I'm certain you'll agree it's one of the best presentations you've watched all year.

Watch "The Simple Truth About Trends" now!

The Gold ETF Trader

Adam weighs in ...... Is Gold Indicating Trouble Ahead?

Is it time to go long gold in a big way? Our trading partner Adam Hewison, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, has come out with his call on gold for the near term. Are you trading with him or against him?.....

As another trading week comes to a close, it is worth noting that gold is closing at a nine week high for a Friday. I believe that this is a significant event, and believe that gold has now put in a base to move higher later this year and next year.

It's a little ironic that hedge fund traders, like George Soros, recently divested themselves of their long gold positions, as it now appears that the market has put in a major base and wants to move higher.

Our long term monthly Trade Triangle for gold continues to be in a negative mode. However, this Trade Triangle [click here to get a free trial of Adam's Trade Triangle technology] is slowly beginning to flatten out and I would not be surprised to see it change to green in the not too distant future. In today's report, I will be covering gold and a gold stock that you may want to trade, as it flashed a major buy signal today.

I will also be covering some very interesting stocks that I think have potential on the upside after their recent correction from their highs, as well as my analysis of the major markets and what I am looking for in next week's market.

Have a great trading day and a super weekend,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

P.S.  Click here to check out Adam's INO TV. It's FREE!



John Carter's "Dirty Secrets of Weekly Options".... New Video

The Gold Meltdown – What Happened?

In today’s Trade School video, we’re going to be looking into what caused the recent meltdown in gold prices. How could gold drop so precipitously in such a short time, given what’s going on in the world? Did it have anything to do with the ETF GLD or was a country forced to sell its precious metals to satisfy creditors?

We will share with you how you could have systematically made money in gold using our Trade Triangle technology, which has produced some very positive results over the years.

Since 1975, there have been 13 bear markets with an average drop around 14%. This would put gold below the $1,300 level, around $1,280.

In this short 4 minute video on gold, we will illustrate the importance of having a solid game plan and a market proven approach. We will go through each trade in gold and share with you the results of using our Trade Triangle approach from the beginning of the year.

This approach is not for everyone, but we think you will agree that the results certainly speak for themselves.

For more information on the tools we use in this video just click here to >  visit The MarketClub

Phil Streible: Gold Prices Are Trapped

Phil Streible, senior market stratgist at Lind-Waldock, says there is slight more downside risk to the gold price but that prices are trading in a tight volatile range.

Unemployment is up, and our Government has no Plan "B"

It was a shocker. We only created 18,000 jobs and unemployment jumped up to 9.2%, how can we say things are getting better when here we are basically two years after the low in the equity markets with unemployment still stubbornly stuck over 9% and probably going back over 10%.

Folks, there is no “Plan B”. For the past two years, this administration has declared warfare on business, particularly small businesses, the folks who actually create jobs in this country!

It is amazing to me that they could be so blinded with their political philosophy that they have actually forgotten that there are real people out of work that need jobs. Small businesses, the very people who create 70% of all jobs in America, are being punished as the current administration wants to tax them more. How stupid can things get. Oh, they can get pretty stupid.

As I mentioned yesterday in my 1 p.m. update, I felt that the S&P was in thin air and also as cyclic high. I think we could be seeing the start of a 15 to 20 day correction. We also recommended taking some money off the table in our crude oil trade which also went very well.
As mentioned earlier I’m doing this report a little bit earlier as I feel today could be an important turning point in the markets.

Now let’s see how we can protect and make your money grow. Click here to watch the video.

One of things we like to do on Friday is check the markets for 52 week highs and 52 week lows. This is easy to do with MarketClub’s SmartScan technology. Here’s how you do it:
First, go to the SmartScan tab and choose 52 week highs,then filter the results (watch video) using criteria that matches our own personality and price points.

Now, you want to do this starting around 3:30 to 3:45 on Fridays. This will show you the markets that are really strong. The idea is to go with the flow for the weekend and take profits on the opening on Tuesday morning.

It’s a simple approach and it’s worked out very well in the past. I suggest you do this and track it yourself for a while just to get a feel of the concept. We will also be doing the same thing and recapping the markets that came up on our 5 p.m. show on Wednesday. You wont want to miss this recap as it will be an eye opener for you.

If you haven’t yet had a chance to take our FREE 10 part trading course.

Unlimited access to this and other trading videos FREE! Click Here!

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