When you look forward to the next 12 months, do you want your trading
results to be different than they are now? In fact, most traders today
are feeling frustrated and disappointed with their trading performance.
But truthfully, it’s not your fault…
You see, most of the popular trading strategies of the 80s and 90s are
not working today. In fact, they stopped working in the year 2000.
And surprisingly, many trading educators are still teaching them (and
too many traders are still using them!) Why? Because they don't know where else to turn.
However, there’s a small community of traders who did find a way to
achieve consistent profits in these markets and they're doing it by
using a secret trading methodology that ís been proven to work for over 100 years!
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Watch the proof here. Watch "PowerStock Strategies....are you Ready?
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Stock Market Trend – Eye Opening Information
My Stock market trend analysis is likely different
from what you think is about to unfold. Keep an open mind as this is
just showing you both sides of the coin from a technical stand point.
Remember, the market likes to trend in the direction which causes the most investor pain.
Since the stock market bottom in 2009 equities has been rising which is great, but this train could be setting up to do the unthinkable. What do I mean? Well, let’s take a look at the two possible outcomes.
Take a look at the chart below which I found on the ZeroHedge website last week. This chart shows the SP500 index relative to positive and negative investor credit balances. As you can see we are starting to reach some extreme leverage again on the stock market. I do feel we are close to a strong correction or possible bear market, but we must remember that a correction may be all we get. It does not take much for this type of borrowed money to be washed clean and removed. A simple 2-6 week correction will do this and then stocks will be free to continue higher.
Also, poor earnings continue to be released for many individual names across all sectors of the market. While corporate profits may be holding up or growing in some of the big name stocks, revenues are not. This means the big guys are simply laying off workers and cutting costs still.
Overall the stock market is entering its strongest period of the year. So things could get choppy here with strong up and down days until Jan. After that stocks could start to top out and eventually confirm a down trend. Keep in mind, major market tops are a process. They take 6-12 months to form so do not think this is a simple short trade. The market will be choppy until a confirmed down trend is in place.
The U.S. dollar is likely to continue falling in the long run, but I do not think it will collapse. Instead, it will likely grind lower and trade almost in a sideways pattern for years to come.
Get My Reports Free at The Gold & Oil Guy.com
Chris Vermeulen
Free Weekly Low Risk Stock Picks
Since the stock market bottom in 2009 equities has been rising which is great, but this train could be setting up to do the unthinkable. What do I mean? Well, let’s take a look at the two possible outcomes.
The Bear Market Trend & Investor Negative Credit
The S&P500 has been forming a large broadening formation over the last 13 years. The recent run to new highs and record amounts of money being borrowed to buy stocks on margin has me skeptical about prices continuing higher.
Take a look at the chart below which I found on the ZeroHedge website last week. This chart shows the SP500 index relative to positive and negative investor credit balances. As you can see we are starting to reach some extreme leverage again on the stock market. I do feel we are close to a strong correction or possible bear market, but we must remember that a correction may be all we get. It does not take much for this type of borrowed money to be washed clean and removed. A simple 2-6 week correction will do this and then stocks will be free to continue higher.
Monthly Bearish Trend Outlook
Below you can see the simple logical move that should occur next for stocks based on the average bull market lasts four years (it has been four years) and the fact the negative credit is so high again.
Also, poor earnings continue to be released for many individual names across all sectors of the market. While corporate profits may be holding up or growing in some of the big name stocks, revenues are not. This means the big guys are simply laying off workers and cutting costs still.
Overall the stock market is entering its strongest period of the year. So things could get choppy here with strong up and down days until Jan. After that stocks could start to top out and eventually confirm a down trend. Keep in mind, major market tops are a process. They take 6-12 months to form so do not think this is a simple short trade. The market will be choppy until a confirmed down trend is in place.
Monthly BULLISH Trend Outlook
This scenario is the least likely one floating around market participant’s minds. It just does not seem possible with the global issues trying to be resolved. With the Federal Reserve continuing to print tens of billions of dollars each month inflating the stocks market this bullish scenario has some legs to stand on and makes for the perfect “Wall of Worry” for stocks to climb.
The U.S. dollar is likely to continue falling in the long run, but I do not think it will collapse. Instead, it will likely grind lower and trade almost in a sideways pattern for years to come.
Major Stock Market Trend Conclusion:
In summary, I remain bullish with the trend, but once price and the technical indicators confirm a down trend I will happily jump ships and take advantage of lower prices.
Remember, this is big picture stuff using
Monthly and quarterly charts. So these plays will take some time to
unfold and within these larger moves are many shorter term opportunities
that we will be trading regardless of which direction the market is
trending.
As active traders and investors we will profit either way.
Chris Vermeulen
Free Weekly Low Risk Stock Picks
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Precious Metals: Gold, Silver and Miners Are Trapped
The precious metal market has been stuck in a strong down trend since 2012. But the recent chart, volume and technical analysis is starting to show some signs that a bottom may have already taken place.
This report focused on the weekly and monthly charts which allow us to see the bigger picture of where the precious metals sector stands in terms of its trend. Let’s take a look at a few charts below for a quick overview, but if you want more interesting ...... Click here to Read More.
This report focused on the weekly and monthly charts which allow us to see the bigger picture of where the precious metals sector stands in terms of its trend. Let’s take a look at a few charts below for a quick overview, but if you want more interesting ...... Click here to Read More.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Busting Economic and Natural Resource Myths
By The Gold Report
The Gold Report: Why is the theory of tapering or turning quantitative easing (QE) off a myth, and who really benefits from QE?
Rick Rule: My view—as an investor, not an economist—is that QE is misnamed. I think it's another way of saying counterfeiting. It exists in large measure because we're running a trillion-dollar deficit and, while we can hoodwink investors into funding two-thirds of it, we need to print away the last third.
TGR: What are the consequences of turning off QE?
Louis James: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said himself that he had certain criteria he wanted to see before tapering—employment in particular. Those have not been met. Employment figures have improved, but only in—I guess the technical term would be "crappy" jobs. Long-term employment, the middle class' bread and butter, is not better.
TGR: Rick, you defy common sense and argue that bull markets are bad and bear markets are good, but it doesn't feel that way.
RR: JT, at the risk of being sexist, women are normally more rational shoppers than men. Think about the stock market as a mall.
In the mall, the store on the left-hand of the entrance has a big flashing sign that says, "Bear Market Merchants All Goods 70% Off, No Reasonable Offer Refused, Come Back Tomorrow—Prices May Be Lower." The store on the right-hand side has a tiny sign that says, "Bespoke Bear Market Merchants, No Deals Ever, High Margin for Merchants, Don't Even Think About Asking for a Deal, Prices May Be Higher Next Week."
If you're going to buy a pair of shoes, which store would you go to? This is a no-brainer. When people buy physical goods, they act rationally. When they buy financial goods, they want to overpay. It's totally irrational, and it's extraordinarily common. If you want to become wealthier, why wouldn't you buy financial assets when they're on sale?
TGR: Staying with the mall analogy, does that suggest that people are afraid stocks will be on even deeper sale tomorrow?
Marin Katusa: You have to look at the timeframe. This is a great market if you're an accredited investor and have an account with someone like Rick Rule or you subscribe to the International Speculator and follow the right management teams. Today, you can invest in deals with five-year full warrants that would not have been available three years ago. Rick and I have been in meetings where the venture teams laughed at me when I requested full warrants. Rick just said, "Bite your lip, smile, and wait." And he was right.
If you're buying stock today in hopes that the market will go up the next day, you'll be in a lot of pain. But if you have a two- to five-year timeframe, you can get guys like Bob Quartermain and Lukas Lundin on sale.
LJ: What would you give to go back in time and buy Apple just after the Apple II came out? Or to buy Microsoft when DOS was new?
Over the course of the last decade—what I think of as the first half of this great bull cycle—billions of dollars have gone into the ground and done good work.
Companies with 10 million ounces of high grade gold in a safe mining jurisdiction are on sale below IPO prices. Some companies with excellent management and assets in hand are selling for less than cash value. You can buy these companies now, instead of looking for the next Apple or Microsoft.
RR: Words like "want" and "hope" in speculation are truly four-letter words, profanities. Having a stock in your portfolio that cost $200,000 and has a current market valuation of $40,000 is unfortunate, but irrelevant. Investors need to take advantage of their education and do their best with the situation at hand. Right now, things are cheap. When things are cheap you're supposed to buy. In bull markets, when things are expensive, you're supposed to sell.
Right now, buying is easy because you have no competitors. In a bull market, selling is easy because everybody is a buyer. If the market is desperately looking for bids and you are scared to death because your stocks can't catch bids, you have to bid. They say the market was desperate for asks, but this market is desperate for bids.
TGR: Some have said this the end of the commodity supercycle. Is that a myth? And is it more or less of a myth in some sectors than others?
RR: The narrative that existed in 2009-2010, when the commodity supercycle was the currency of all financial thinking, is unchanged. The first part of that narrative was founded on the idea that world population growth was taking commodity consumption higher. World population growth is not over.
The second part of the narrative was that as poor people gained more freedom, they got richer and consumed more. Political liberalization in emerging frontier markets has continued, and people are wealthier and are consuming more.
A third part of the narrative was that Western consumers had lived beyond their means and as a consequence were debasing the denominators, the fiat currencies. If you debase the denominator, the nominal value of stuff would go up. We have not stopped debasing the denominator.
The entire narrative associated with the resource-industry bull market is intact. Nothing has changed except the price. A cyclical decline in a secular bull market is a different way of describing a spectacular sale, for people who understand that the narrative hasn't changed.
TGR: Are there some sectors that still feel as if it's a commodity supercycle?
MK: Definitely. Look at oil.
RR: But your readers don't want to look for hot sectors, because they are overpriced. They want to look for cold sectors. They want to find the sector, management team, or the company that's going to be hot.
TGR: If oil is hot right now, what is going to be hot?
MK: From the energy side, I think within three years uranium will be hot.
TGR: Why the three-year timeline?
MK: There are three major catalysts. First is the end of the US-Russia Highly Enriched Uranium Purchase Agreement (HEU). The last shipment will happen at the end of 2013.
Second is the transitional agreement, in which the Russians will provide up to 50% of the uranium on a new pricing metric than the HEU agreement. Only this time, the Russians have new dance partners: Saudi Arabia, China, India, Korea, even France. The reality is the Americans will have to pay more for uranium from the Russians.
Third, nuclear reactors are not all being taken down; they're being built. Japan plans to bring its reactors back online, just not on the timeframe the junior resource sector wants them to. The Japanese cannot afford to pay the most expensive electricity prices in the world and stay competitive. They have no choice but to move forward with nuclear power.
TGR: Is the end of HEU already priced in to uranium?
MK: Yes, both because the market is determining what it's worth today and because Japan shut down 40 nuclear reactors. That's a black-swan game-changer that shifted everything.
Yet, the long-term price is 50% higher than the spot price, and more than 90% of the uranium being consumed and traded is based on the long-term price. That's the equivalent of saying gold today is $1,300/ounce, but if you want to take delivery in three or four years—which is what nuclear utilities do for uranium—you have to pay $1,900/oz. Or copper at $4.50/pound if you want delivery in five years. That's the situation in uranium today.
TGR: Louis, which sector are you looking forward to?
LJ: There's talk on the streets about helium, although I'm not sure I want to move in that direction. I'm happier focusing on something right in front of me and that I understand. Finding a company that has a multimillion-ounce, high-grade deposit and is on sale at half price is similar to going into the supermarket and finding the thickest, most beautifully marbled T-bone steak, fresh cut today, on sale for half off. Why bother with hamburger of unknown quality?
TGR: We keep hearing that we've hit a bottom, which would imply that the market is moving up. However, Rick, you have described it as a bifurcated market in which the bad stocks will continue to sink, which would be a good thing. How do we know which companies will sink and which will revive?
RR: That's a critical question. Before your readers classify stocks, they need to classify themselves. Are they the type of person who will put enough time and attention into securities analysis to compete on their own? Or do they need other people to help them compete?
While securities analysis and stock selection in the junior market is imperfect, it can be done. It requires understanding the stock. If you're not willing to understand the stock, you need an advisor.
TGR: How many hours does that work take? What questions should investors be asking?
RR: Speculators running their own portfolios without advice should limit the number of stocks in the portfolio to the number that they can spend two or three hours a month working on. That means reading every press release, proxy, quarterly, and annual report. Read the president's message and measure it against what he said the company would accomplish over the year.
Speculators unwilling to do that need to hire somebody who will. That may mean subscribing to one of the trading services offered by Casey or hiring an organization like Sprott to be a broker or a manager.
Getting to bifurcation and stock selection, if 15% of the stocks are moving higher, 85% are moving lower. You won't be able to concentrate 100% in either camp, but if you get more right than wrong, you'll make so much money that the outliers will be irrelevant. If you get it wrong, you'll lose so much money that you ought to be in some other business.
TGR: Are there fewer brokers walking the streets of Vancouver these days?
MK: Definitely, also fewer analysts and fewer corporate development positions and many fewer investor relations people.
There are more BMWs, Mercedes, and Ferraris on sale, and now more offices becoming vacant.
TGR: Does that mean only the best are left?
MK: Not necessarily.
RR: But it does reduce the population. To be a responsible analyst, you once had to look in a cursory fashion at 4,000 companies. Today, having only 3,000 companies to look at is an advantage.
The three of us look at data in a summary fashion to try and dispose of a company. You look for something to kill your interest. The good news is that the population of timewasters is down by at least a third. That's unfortunate for their shareholders, but that's their problem, not ours. Our job is to look after our subscribers or clients.
TGR: Let's talk about regions. Is it true that the Yukon is remote?
LJ: It's no more remote now than it was last year. You can't write off the Yukon or anywhere without looking at and understanding the specifics of individual opportunities. Miners with remote projects that have high enough margins are able to barge or truck diesel fuel in and run gen-sets, etc. If Canadians can mine diamonds in the Arctic Circle, they can mine gold in the Yukon.
Remoteness by itself is not the issue. The issue is margin. If you're in the Yukon and you've got something low grade, with low recoveries and complex metallurgy—don't call us, we'll call you. If you have something high grade, open pit, that leaches, tell me more.
TGR: Rick, in your presentation, you talked about platinum and palladium. Is that an area where the supercycle needs to whip things up?
RR: I don't think it even requires a supercycle. With platinum and palladium, I can look empirically at simple supply and demand. On a global basis, the platinum and palladium industry doesn't earn its cost of capital. That means one of two things will happen: The price of platinum and palladium will increase, or there won't be enough platinum and palladium to supply current demand.
In the context of supply, you don't have to worry about investor inventories because there are almost none. The world supply of existing, finished platinum and palladium is less than one year's fabrication demand.
The consequence of the industry not earning its cost of capital is that production has fallen by 19% over six years. New mine supply is falling. South Africa itself accounts for 70% of world platinum production and 39% of world palladium production.
In South Africa, the industry has deferred $5 billion in sustaining capital investments; workers are dying and infrastructure is more and more decrepit.
A skilled worker crouching 7,000 feet underground in 105-degree heat in two inches of water makes $700 per month. An unskilled worker who mucks the material on his hands and knees 400 meters from the mine face to the adit makes $200 a month. A migratory worker sustaining a family in the homeland is probably sustaining another family at the mine face. Wages have to go up, but they can't because the companies don't earn their cost of capital.
According to the majority of South Africans, social take—taxes and royalties—has to go up, but can't because companies don't earn their cost of capital.
Prices have to go up. Platinum and palladium prices can go up because their utility to users is so high. It goes into high-carat jewelry. Platinum goes up a smokestack. Mostly, it goes out a tailpipe.
It costs $200—the cost of a catalytic converter in a new car—to give us the air quality we enjoy today. There's a social consensus in favor of stricter air-quality standards. If the price of platinum and palladium doubled, the catalytic converter would cost $400 in a $27,000 new car; the demand impact would be de minimus.
LJ: We all know the often-quoted phrase that most of the gold ever mined in the world is still sitting in purified form on the surface in one form or the other. Platinum and palladium are different; they are consumed. I agree with Rick.
I would go one step further regarding South Africa. It's not just the economics that don't work; it's the country itself. It's a balloon resting on pins. I see platinum and palladium as speculation on South Africa going up in flames, which is an easy bet to take now. I'm sorry for the South Africans, but it's a bad situation with no easy way out.
TGR: There's been a lot of talk about the dearth of young, qualified people coming up to take a place in management teams. Has the next generation of managers—and investors, for that matter—left the sector? If so, what will happen?
MK: There's a significant age gap in our industry. When I was taking geology courses at university, our professor would ask why we were taking this class. There were no jobs. He recommended we go into computers, and a lot of people did.
Unfortunately, good management teams are very difficult to come by. Only 1 in 3,000 projects ever becomes an economic mine, and I'd say investing in the right people is more important than any other factor.
LJ: This scarcity makes the investor's job a little easier. Just type the CEO's name in Google and look up his history. Has he done this before? Has he succeeded? Was he an accountant or a used car salesman? Google is one of our primary triage tools.
People is the first of Doug Casey's famous Eight Ps. If I hear about a story that fits our general criteria, the first thing I look at is management and directors. If I recognize the name of someone who has lied to me or whom I don't trust, I don't even look at the project.
TGR: New people coming up need to get experience by being in a successful project. Are there enough successful projects that they're learning how to do it?
LJ: I don't necessarily agree with that angle. All experience is good experience. A person can learn a lot from working for a company that does something wrong. It's having lots of experience, both good and bad, that is so important. The problem is that, unless you get very lucky, you need to have experience to really call shots well, and there are not enough people out there with the decades of experience needed.
On the bright side, because there is money in the field now, geology departments are no longer shutting down; enrollment is up. Supply is improving, but it will be another 5 to 10 years before the supply of highly experienced personnel really improves.
RR: Let's personalize it for your readers. There are three analysts in the room: an old one and two young ones. I guarantee you that, as a consequence of the bear market they just experienced, the two younger analysts will make their readers more money with less risk in the next bull market.
Youth isn't enough. You need to have a decade under your belt so that you have lived through the changes. Marin and Louis just lived through the kind of challenges I lived through in the 1980s. They now have the two things needed to survive in this racket: legs and scars.
MK: He's not joking about the scars.
RR: The transfer of the mantle from the Doug Caseys and Rick Rules of the world to the Marin Katusas and Louis Jameses is under way. The batons are being passed.
TGR: Is the bear market making a better generation of investors? Will they be more patient, have more perspective given what they've been through?
MK: If they stick with it. It's all about timeframe and perspective. The bear market will wash out a lot of investors; do not allow yourself to become a victim. But as Rick said, investors have to mitigate risk to stay alive until the next leg in the bull market.
RR: You're wrong there, Marin. You have to thrive. The year 2000, which was the market bottom, was one of the best investment years of my life. And 2001 was even better, as was 2002.
A bear market is when you make your money. You don't get to put it in your pocket until things turn, but you make your money by thriving in bear markets. You don't thrive in bull markets. You cash the checks. It's very different.
LJ: I expect this will be a painful experience for a lot of people. Some will learn a lesson, but it will be the wrong lesson. The lesson will be: Don't invest in commodities; they're too risky. That lesson will stick until the prices go bananas again, when they'll give it another try and get taken to the cleaners again.
To buy low and sell high, investors have to be able to sell high, which means they are expecting people to act irrationally when prices are very high—which means they didn't learn the lesson. It's unfortunate for our world that human nature is so, but it is so, and investors who ignore the opportunities this creates don't do anyone any favors.
TGR: Marin, going back to energy, there's been a lot in the media about the International Energy Agency (IEA) report about energy independence in North America. Will we be the Saudi Arabia of natural gas?
MK: North America is already the Saudi Arabia of natural gas. Unfortunately, so are the Russians.
The report said that if these eight assumptions happen the way we hope, America will become almost energy independent. The media forgot about the eight assumptions, and they got rid of the word "almost."
The US has done a great job of bringing North American innovation to the shale industry, but the industry has many other challenges to work through.
TGR: Is Saudi Arabia still the Saudi Arabia of oil? Its wells are getting long in the tooth, and the country is building nuclear plants for domestic use.
MK: We're all asking that question. The Ghawar oil field has been producing oil since before Elvis hit the scene and today produces about half of Saudi Arabia's oil. There is significant risk in relying on these old elephant deposits that have been producing for more than 50 years.
RR: I agree. What has happened in the US, and to a lesser degree Canada, is unique because our competitive markets still work. For example, 50 or 60 competitors at Eagle Ford tried and failed using various completion techniques, each time getting better and better. Ultimately, Eagle Ford was an extremely messy success.
In most of the world, there's one quasi-state oil company looking at a basin. There's no competition trying different solutions. Exporting American or Canadian technology doesn't work without exporting the messiness of the North American energy-exploration business.
Marin, would exporting technology from Eagle Ford work in Argentina's Vaca Muerta Shale?
MK: It would take billions of dollars to make it work at Vaca Muerta. A junior company with a $10 million market cap and $500,000 to make management's salary and payment on their BMWs will never be able to develop this billion-dollar shale potential. It will require a big company, like a Chevron.
TGR: We heard a lot about the potential for crowdfunding to save the resource sector by funding more companies. True?
MK: I'd like to make sure that all of your readers stay the hell away from crowdfunding for the resource sector. I've heard it works OK in the tech sector and among the let's-make-a-movie crowd, where all that is needed is to raise $150,000 for something that may or may not work.
In the resource sector, real exploration cannot be done for $2-3 million. If people want to invest in the sector, go to someone with a track record, someone who knows what he's doing. Subscribe to Louis' newsletter and educate yourself. Stay the hell away from crowdfunding for the resource sector.
RR: The last thing the sector needs is more companies. The idea that the crowd would invest $3 million in a de novo project when there are companies out there that have spent $80 million on an existing project, yet have a $6 million market cap is the most counterproductive activity that one could imagine. If there are 3,000 public companies doing exploration on a global basis, we don't need another 300. We need 2,000 fewer.
LJ: It's one thing to go directly to the masses with an art project that some snob at the National Endowment for the Arts turned down, but entirely another to do so for a mine project no knowledgeable investor will touch.
TGR: What myth would you want our readers to stop believing in?
LJ: I would like to dethrone the "grade is king" myth. It's not grade; it's margin. You can have an exceptionally high-grade deposit in an exceptionally expensive, difficult, or kleptocratic jurisdiction, and it won't work. You could have a water table that's so fluid that you spend more money pumping water than mining. There are so many things that can go wrong or add to costs. Too many people believe if a project is high grade, it has to make money. No, it doesn't. High margin is paramount, not grade.
MK: I think the myth that the commodity bull market is over is insane. We're nowhere near being over. This is the opportunity of a lifetime. This is when you start doing your homework and investing money.
RR: The idea that bear markets are bad and bull markets are good is bullshit. It's the other way around. Bear markets are good. Bull markets are bad.
LJ: Bullshit is a technical term.
TGR: I enjoyed talking with the three of you. Thanks.
The Gold Report: Why is the theory of tapering or turning quantitative easing (QE) off a myth, and who really benefits from QE?
Rick Rule: My view—as an investor, not an economist—is that QE is misnamed. I think it's another way of saying counterfeiting. It exists in large measure because we're running a trillion-dollar deficit and, while we can hoodwink investors into funding two-thirds of it, we need to print away the last third.
TGR: What are the consequences of turning off QE?
Louis James: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said himself that he had certain criteria he wanted to see before tapering—employment in particular. Those have not been met. Employment figures have improved, but only in—I guess the technical term would be "crappy" jobs. Long-term employment, the middle class' bread and butter, is not better.
TGR: Rick, you defy common sense and argue that bull markets are bad and bear markets are good, but it doesn't feel that way.
RR: JT, at the risk of being sexist, women are normally more rational shoppers than men. Think about the stock market as a mall.
In the mall, the store on the left-hand of the entrance has a big flashing sign that says, "Bear Market Merchants All Goods 70% Off, No Reasonable Offer Refused, Come Back Tomorrow—Prices May Be Lower." The store on the right-hand side has a tiny sign that says, "Bespoke Bear Market Merchants, No Deals Ever, High Margin for Merchants, Don't Even Think About Asking for a Deal, Prices May Be Higher Next Week."
If you're going to buy a pair of shoes, which store would you go to? This is a no-brainer. When people buy physical goods, they act rationally. When they buy financial goods, they want to overpay. It's totally irrational, and it's extraordinarily common. If you want to become wealthier, why wouldn't you buy financial assets when they're on sale?
TGR: Staying with the mall analogy, does that suggest that people are afraid stocks will be on even deeper sale tomorrow?
Marin Katusa: You have to look at the timeframe. This is a great market if you're an accredited investor and have an account with someone like Rick Rule or you subscribe to the International Speculator and follow the right management teams. Today, you can invest in deals with five-year full warrants that would not have been available three years ago. Rick and I have been in meetings where the venture teams laughed at me when I requested full warrants. Rick just said, "Bite your lip, smile, and wait." And he was right.
If you're buying stock today in hopes that the market will go up the next day, you'll be in a lot of pain. But if you have a two- to five-year timeframe, you can get guys like Bob Quartermain and Lukas Lundin on sale.
LJ: What would you give to go back in time and buy Apple just after the Apple II came out? Or to buy Microsoft when DOS was new?
Over the course of the last decade—what I think of as the first half of this great bull cycle—billions of dollars have gone into the ground and done good work.
Companies with 10 million ounces of high grade gold in a safe mining jurisdiction are on sale below IPO prices. Some companies with excellent management and assets in hand are selling for less than cash value. You can buy these companies now, instead of looking for the next Apple or Microsoft.
RR: Words like "want" and "hope" in speculation are truly four-letter words, profanities. Having a stock in your portfolio that cost $200,000 and has a current market valuation of $40,000 is unfortunate, but irrelevant. Investors need to take advantage of their education and do their best with the situation at hand. Right now, things are cheap. When things are cheap you're supposed to buy. In bull markets, when things are expensive, you're supposed to sell.
Right now, buying is easy because you have no competitors. In a bull market, selling is easy because everybody is a buyer. If the market is desperately looking for bids and you are scared to death because your stocks can't catch bids, you have to bid. They say the market was desperate for asks, but this market is desperate for bids.
TGR: Some have said this the end of the commodity supercycle. Is that a myth? And is it more or less of a myth in some sectors than others?
RR: The narrative that existed in 2009-2010, when the commodity supercycle was the currency of all financial thinking, is unchanged. The first part of that narrative was founded on the idea that world population growth was taking commodity consumption higher. World population growth is not over.
The second part of the narrative was that as poor people gained more freedom, they got richer and consumed more. Political liberalization in emerging frontier markets has continued, and people are wealthier and are consuming more.
A third part of the narrative was that Western consumers had lived beyond their means and as a consequence were debasing the denominators, the fiat currencies. If you debase the denominator, the nominal value of stuff would go up. We have not stopped debasing the denominator.
The entire narrative associated with the resource-industry bull market is intact. Nothing has changed except the price. A cyclical decline in a secular bull market is a different way of describing a spectacular sale, for people who understand that the narrative hasn't changed.
TGR: Are there some sectors that still feel as if it's a commodity supercycle?
MK: Definitely. Look at oil.
RR: But your readers don't want to look for hot sectors, because they are overpriced. They want to look for cold sectors. They want to find the sector, management team, or the company that's going to be hot.
TGR: If oil is hot right now, what is going to be hot?
MK: From the energy side, I think within three years uranium will be hot.
TGR: Why the three-year timeline?
MK: There are three major catalysts. First is the end of the US-Russia Highly Enriched Uranium Purchase Agreement (HEU). The last shipment will happen at the end of 2013.
Second is the transitional agreement, in which the Russians will provide up to 50% of the uranium on a new pricing metric than the HEU agreement. Only this time, the Russians have new dance partners: Saudi Arabia, China, India, Korea, even France. The reality is the Americans will have to pay more for uranium from the Russians.
Third, nuclear reactors are not all being taken down; they're being built. Japan plans to bring its reactors back online, just not on the timeframe the junior resource sector wants them to. The Japanese cannot afford to pay the most expensive electricity prices in the world and stay competitive. They have no choice but to move forward with nuclear power.
TGR: Is the end of HEU already priced in to uranium?
MK: Yes, both because the market is determining what it's worth today and because Japan shut down 40 nuclear reactors. That's a black-swan game-changer that shifted everything.
Yet, the long-term price is 50% higher than the spot price, and more than 90% of the uranium being consumed and traded is based on the long-term price. That's the equivalent of saying gold today is $1,300/ounce, but if you want to take delivery in three or four years—which is what nuclear utilities do for uranium—you have to pay $1,900/oz. Or copper at $4.50/pound if you want delivery in five years. That's the situation in uranium today.
TGR: Louis, which sector are you looking forward to?
LJ: There's talk on the streets about helium, although I'm not sure I want to move in that direction. I'm happier focusing on something right in front of me and that I understand. Finding a company that has a multimillion-ounce, high-grade deposit and is on sale at half price is similar to going into the supermarket and finding the thickest, most beautifully marbled T-bone steak, fresh cut today, on sale for half off. Why bother with hamburger of unknown quality?
TGR: We keep hearing that we've hit a bottom, which would imply that the market is moving up. However, Rick, you have described it as a bifurcated market in which the bad stocks will continue to sink, which would be a good thing. How do we know which companies will sink and which will revive?
RR: That's a critical question. Before your readers classify stocks, they need to classify themselves. Are they the type of person who will put enough time and attention into securities analysis to compete on their own? Or do they need other people to help them compete?
While securities analysis and stock selection in the junior market is imperfect, it can be done. It requires understanding the stock. If you're not willing to understand the stock, you need an advisor.
TGR: How many hours does that work take? What questions should investors be asking?
RR: Speculators running their own portfolios without advice should limit the number of stocks in the portfolio to the number that they can spend two or three hours a month working on. That means reading every press release, proxy, quarterly, and annual report. Read the president's message and measure it against what he said the company would accomplish over the year.
Speculators unwilling to do that need to hire somebody who will. That may mean subscribing to one of the trading services offered by Casey or hiring an organization like Sprott to be a broker or a manager.
Getting to bifurcation and stock selection, if 15% of the stocks are moving higher, 85% are moving lower. You won't be able to concentrate 100% in either camp, but if you get more right than wrong, you'll make so much money that the outliers will be irrelevant. If you get it wrong, you'll lose so much money that you ought to be in some other business.
TGR: Are there fewer brokers walking the streets of Vancouver these days?
MK: Definitely, also fewer analysts and fewer corporate development positions and many fewer investor relations people.
There are more BMWs, Mercedes, and Ferraris on sale, and now more offices becoming vacant.
TGR: Does that mean only the best are left?
MK: Not necessarily.
RR: But it does reduce the population. To be a responsible analyst, you once had to look in a cursory fashion at 4,000 companies. Today, having only 3,000 companies to look at is an advantage.
The three of us look at data in a summary fashion to try and dispose of a company. You look for something to kill your interest. The good news is that the population of timewasters is down by at least a third. That's unfortunate for their shareholders, but that's their problem, not ours. Our job is to look after our subscribers or clients.
TGR: Let's talk about regions. Is it true that the Yukon is remote?
LJ: It's no more remote now than it was last year. You can't write off the Yukon or anywhere without looking at and understanding the specifics of individual opportunities. Miners with remote projects that have high enough margins are able to barge or truck diesel fuel in and run gen-sets, etc. If Canadians can mine diamonds in the Arctic Circle, they can mine gold in the Yukon.
Remoteness by itself is not the issue. The issue is margin. If you're in the Yukon and you've got something low grade, with low recoveries and complex metallurgy—don't call us, we'll call you. If you have something high grade, open pit, that leaches, tell me more.
TGR: Rick, in your presentation, you talked about platinum and palladium. Is that an area where the supercycle needs to whip things up?
RR: I don't think it even requires a supercycle. With platinum and palladium, I can look empirically at simple supply and demand. On a global basis, the platinum and palladium industry doesn't earn its cost of capital. That means one of two things will happen: The price of platinum and palladium will increase, or there won't be enough platinum and palladium to supply current demand.
In the context of supply, you don't have to worry about investor inventories because there are almost none. The world supply of existing, finished platinum and palladium is less than one year's fabrication demand.
The consequence of the industry not earning its cost of capital is that production has fallen by 19% over six years. New mine supply is falling. South Africa itself accounts for 70% of world platinum production and 39% of world palladium production.
In South Africa, the industry has deferred $5 billion in sustaining capital investments; workers are dying and infrastructure is more and more decrepit.
A skilled worker crouching 7,000 feet underground in 105-degree heat in two inches of water makes $700 per month. An unskilled worker who mucks the material on his hands and knees 400 meters from the mine face to the adit makes $200 a month. A migratory worker sustaining a family in the homeland is probably sustaining another family at the mine face. Wages have to go up, but they can't because the companies don't earn their cost of capital.
According to the majority of South Africans, social take—taxes and royalties—has to go up, but can't because companies don't earn their cost of capital.
Prices have to go up. Platinum and palladium prices can go up because their utility to users is so high. It goes into high-carat jewelry. Platinum goes up a smokestack. Mostly, it goes out a tailpipe.
It costs $200—the cost of a catalytic converter in a new car—to give us the air quality we enjoy today. There's a social consensus in favor of stricter air-quality standards. If the price of platinum and palladium doubled, the catalytic converter would cost $400 in a $27,000 new car; the demand impact would be de minimus.
LJ: We all know the often-quoted phrase that most of the gold ever mined in the world is still sitting in purified form on the surface in one form or the other. Platinum and palladium are different; they are consumed. I agree with Rick.
I would go one step further regarding South Africa. It's not just the economics that don't work; it's the country itself. It's a balloon resting on pins. I see platinum and palladium as speculation on South Africa going up in flames, which is an easy bet to take now. I'm sorry for the South Africans, but it's a bad situation with no easy way out.
TGR: There's been a lot of talk about the dearth of young, qualified people coming up to take a place in management teams. Has the next generation of managers—and investors, for that matter—left the sector? If so, what will happen?
MK: There's a significant age gap in our industry. When I was taking geology courses at university, our professor would ask why we were taking this class. There were no jobs. He recommended we go into computers, and a lot of people did.
Unfortunately, good management teams are very difficult to come by. Only 1 in 3,000 projects ever becomes an economic mine, and I'd say investing in the right people is more important than any other factor.
LJ: This scarcity makes the investor's job a little easier. Just type the CEO's name in Google and look up his history. Has he done this before? Has he succeeded? Was he an accountant or a used car salesman? Google is one of our primary triage tools.
People is the first of Doug Casey's famous Eight Ps. If I hear about a story that fits our general criteria, the first thing I look at is management and directors. If I recognize the name of someone who has lied to me or whom I don't trust, I don't even look at the project.
TGR: New people coming up need to get experience by being in a successful project. Are there enough successful projects that they're learning how to do it?
LJ: I don't necessarily agree with that angle. All experience is good experience. A person can learn a lot from working for a company that does something wrong. It's having lots of experience, both good and bad, that is so important. The problem is that, unless you get very lucky, you need to have experience to really call shots well, and there are not enough people out there with the decades of experience needed.
On the bright side, because there is money in the field now, geology departments are no longer shutting down; enrollment is up. Supply is improving, but it will be another 5 to 10 years before the supply of highly experienced personnel really improves.
RR: Let's personalize it for your readers. There are three analysts in the room: an old one and two young ones. I guarantee you that, as a consequence of the bear market they just experienced, the two younger analysts will make their readers more money with less risk in the next bull market.
Youth isn't enough. You need to have a decade under your belt so that you have lived through the changes. Marin and Louis just lived through the kind of challenges I lived through in the 1980s. They now have the two things needed to survive in this racket: legs and scars.
MK: He's not joking about the scars.
RR: The transfer of the mantle from the Doug Caseys and Rick Rules of the world to the Marin Katusas and Louis Jameses is under way. The batons are being passed.
TGR: Is the bear market making a better generation of investors? Will they be more patient, have more perspective given what they've been through?
MK: If they stick with it. It's all about timeframe and perspective. The bear market will wash out a lot of investors; do not allow yourself to become a victim. But as Rick said, investors have to mitigate risk to stay alive until the next leg in the bull market.
RR: You're wrong there, Marin. You have to thrive. The year 2000, which was the market bottom, was one of the best investment years of my life. And 2001 was even better, as was 2002.
A bear market is when you make your money. You don't get to put it in your pocket until things turn, but you make your money by thriving in bear markets. You don't thrive in bull markets. You cash the checks. It's very different.
LJ: I expect this will be a painful experience for a lot of people. Some will learn a lesson, but it will be the wrong lesson. The lesson will be: Don't invest in commodities; they're too risky. That lesson will stick until the prices go bananas again, when they'll give it another try and get taken to the cleaners again.
To buy low and sell high, investors have to be able to sell high, which means they are expecting people to act irrationally when prices are very high—which means they didn't learn the lesson. It's unfortunate for our world that human nature is so, but it is so, and investors who ignore the opportunities this creates don't do anyone any favors.
TGR: Marin, going back to energy, there's been a lot in the media about the International Energy Agency (IEA) report about energy independence in North America. Will we be the Saudi Arabia of natural gas?
MK: North America is already the Saudi Arabia of natural gas. Unfortunately, so are the Russians.
The report said that if these eight assumptions happen the way we hope, America will become almost energy independent. The media forgot about the eight assumptions, and they got rid of the word "almost."
The US has done a great job of bringing North American innovation to the shale industry, but the industry has many other challenges to work through.
TGR: Is Saudi Arabia still the Saudi Arabia of oil? Its wells are getting long in the tooth, and the country is building nuclear plants for domestic use.
MK: We're all asking that question. The Ghawar oil field has been producing oil since before Elvis hit the scene and today produces about half of Saudi Arabia's oil. There is significant risk in relying on these old elephant deposits that have been producing for more than 50 years.
RR: I agree. What has happened in the US, and to a lesser degree Canada, is unique because our competitive markets still work. For example, 50 or 60 competitors at Eagle Ford tried and failed using various completion techniques, each time getting better and better. Ultimately, Eagle Ford was an extremely messy success.
In most of the world, there's one quasi-state oil company looking at a basin. There's no competition trying different solutions. Exporting American or Canadian technology doesn't work without exporting the messiness of the North American energy-exploration business.
Marin, would exporting technology from Eagle Ford work in Argentina's Vaca Muerta Shale?
MK: It would take billions of dollars to make it work at Vaca Muerta. A junior company with a $10 million market cap and $500,000 to make management's salary and payment on their BMWs will never be able to develop this billion-dollar shale potential. It will require a big company, like a Chevron.
TGR: We heard a lot about the potential for crowdfunding to save the resource sector by funding more companies. True?
MK: I'd like to make sure that all of your readers stay the hell away from crowdfunding for the resource sector. I've heard it works OK in the tech sector and among the let's-make-a-movie crowd, where all that is needed is to raise $150,000 for something that may or may not work.
In the resource sector, real exploration cannot be done for $2-3 million. If people want to invest in the sector, go to someone with a track record, someone who knows what he's doing. Subscribe to Louis' newsletter and educate yourself. Stay the hell away from crowdfunding for the resource sector.
RR: The last thing the sector needs is more companies. The idea that the crowd would invest $3 million in a de novo project when there are companies out there that have spent $80 million on an existing project, yet have a $6 million market cap is the most counterproductive activity that one could imagine. If there are 3,000 public companies doing exploration on a global basis, we don't need another 300. We need 2,000 fewer.
LJ: It's one thing to go directly to the masses with an art project that some snob at the National Endowment for the Arts turned down, but entirely another to do so for a mine project no knowledgeable investor will touch.
TGR: What myth would you want our readers to stop believing in?
LJ: I would like to dethrone the "grade is king" myth. It's not grade; it's margin. You can have an exceptionally high-grade deposit in an exceptionally expensive, difficult, or kleptocratic jurisdiction, and it won't work. You could have a water table that's so fluid that you spend more money pumping water than mining. There are so many things that can go wrong or add to costs. Too many people believe if a project is high grade, it has to make money. No, it doesn't. High margin is paramount, not grade.
MK: I think the myth that the commodity bull market is over is insane. We're nowhere near being over. This is the opportunity of a lifetime. This is when you start doing your homework and investing money.
RR: The idea that bear markets are bad and bull markets are good is bullshit. It's the other way around. Bear markets are good. Bull markets are bad.
LJ: Bullshit is a technical term.
TGR: I enjoyed talking with the three of you. Thanks.
Hungry for more insights like these? Want specific, actionable recommendations to accompany them? These are the kinds of exchanges that have made Casey Summits must-attend events for resource investors… not to mention why they consistently sell out.
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Monday, September 30, 2013
Weekly Market Recap with Mike Seery - Gold, Silver and Coffee
Here is a weekly recap of the gold, silver and coffee markets from our trading partner Mike Seery.....
Gold futures traded up $7 for the trading week and higher by $15 dollars an ounce this Friday afternoon at 1,340 still in a sideways to downward pattern & I am still advising traders to sit on the sidelines and wait for a real trend to develop, but I do believe that prices look weak at this level and are headed lower with the possibility of testing 1,290 once again. Gold is still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average and it wouldn’t surprise me to see gold retest the June 28th low of 1,182 but that day prices closed at 1,225 & that’s only about $100 dollars away and I think in the long run if your bullish gold you probably want to see gold retest that level and rebound strongly confirming that the possibility of a long-term bottom would be in place. The chart structure in gold is improving which will allow you to place a closer stop loss in the futures market minimizing your risk especially if you trading the mini contract and the liquidity in the gold futures are outstanding as money flowed back into the stock market today and out of the precious metals. TREND: SIDEWAYS TO LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
The silver market was basically unchanged for the trading week and finished up 10 cents at 21.85 this Friday afternoon in New York in a real lack luster trade as volatility has slowed down in recent days but I don’t think that will last for long as silver is one of the most volatile commodities in the world on a daily basis. Silver futures are still trading below their 20 but right at their 100 day moving average with a possible retest of the recent low at 21.22 and is still looks relatively weak in my opinion but if you’re a long term investor I still believe silver prices are cheap & I do think prices will head higher eventually but they might retest the $20 level first in my opinion. Silver is extremely volatile and impossible to try & pick a top or bottom so the object is if your bullish is to try to buy near the bottom or what I still believe is to take advantage of big down days in silver. The most recent high in silver was 25.17 which was during the Syria situation so prices have dropped around $3.50 from those highs; however I think prices will chop around for a while and form a long term bottom at these levels. TREND: SIDEWAYS – CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
The coffee market continues its bearish trend in New York this week trading as high as 119 on Wednesday in the December contract looking to possibly breakout to the upside but then prices got slammed hitting a 4 1/2 year low down another 180 points at 113.90 this Friday with the next major support between 100 – 110 & in my opinion it looks like were headed to those price levels. The coffee market has excellent chart structure allowing you to place a tight stop loss above 119 if you’re looking to get short risking around $2,000 per contract as rumors of a massive crop coming out of Vietnam possibility 29 million bags which is well above recent estimates of 27 million bags pushing prices lower and I still believe if prices get down to the 100 level & your long term investor prices look awful cheap at major yearly support. The biggest fundamental problem with coffee currently is supplies are huge with excellent growing conditions around the world which is keeping a lid on prices at this time. The one positive influence coffee has is the fact that all the bad news is already priced into the market and the fact that the U.S dollar is hitting another 8 month low today could start to support coffee and all the other commodities as well in my opinion. TREND: LOWER – CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it is so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow and grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market and allowing you to place a stop loss with will be relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk.
Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure but markets that continue to trend like the current soybean complex allowing for you to place close stops as it continues to fall dramatically. I always like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loses.
Click here to see some more of Mike's calls on commodities to get you started for the work week.
Ready to start trading crude oil? Start right here....Advanced Crude Oil Study – 15 Minute Range
Sunday, September 22, 2013
Weekly Gold Market Summary
Gold futures in the December contract had one of the most volatile and crazy trading weeks that I can remember finishing this Friday afternoon down $35 at 1,333 an ounce after settling last Friday at 1,308 rallying on the concept that the Federal Reserve will not taper bond purchases which sent many of the commodity markets sharply higher including gold on Wednesday afternoon, however reality has set in as Goldman Sachs came out stating that they believe the Federal Reserve will start tapering in December which put a lot of pressure on many commodities including the stock market today.
I have been advising traders to sit on the sidelines in the gold market & I still think gold looks relatively weak closing right on session lows today as the bond purchasing in my opinion is overrated. The trend in gold is lower at this point but wait for better chart structure to develop before looking to enter into this market as volatility is too high. The U.S dollar hit an 8 month low which also propelled gold prices higher on Wednesday as the Federal government continues to try & support asset prices and it also continues to try to devalue the U.S dollar which is generally bullish commodity prices, however money seems to the flowing back into the S&P 500 as prices are hitting all-time highs while taking money out of gold market.
TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Here's additional commodity updates from our very own Mike Seery
Check out INO TV....for FREE!
I have been advising traders to sit on the sidelines in the gold market & I still think gold looks relatively weak closing right on session lows today as the bond purchasing in my opinion is overrated. The trend in gold is lower at this point but wait for better chart structure to develop before looking to enter into this market as volatility is too high. The U.S dollar hit an 8 month low which also propelled gold prices higher on Wednesday as the Federal government continues to try & support asset prices and it also continues to try to devalue the U.S dollar which is generally bullish commodity prices, however money seems to the flowing back into the S&P 500 as prices are hitting all-time highs while taking money out of gold market.
TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
Here's additional commodity updates from our very own Mike Seery
Check out INO TV....for FREE!
Friday, September 13, 2013
Trading the Trend....Is Your Strategy Working?
But it's a great insight into how professional E-Mini traders place winning trades everyday. You have to watch Todd's free presentation "The Simple Truth About Trends"
Todd proves that the key to pulling money of the markets - whether you're trading stocks, Forex, E-Mini futures or Options - is to trade with the prevailing trend. Yet, most people doing it all wrong. They're missing critical clues in price, getting in too late and not exiting their trade before the trend turns.
However, after watching this free video you'll have more knowledge about the trend than 90% of other traders.
Inside this presentation you'll discover:
- 3 Critical Bullish Patterns in Price
- 3 Important Bearish Patterns in Price
- 3 Little-Known Truths in Trend That Apply in all Markets in all Timeframes
- How to Spot Reversals Before They Happen
- How to Determine the Strength of the Market
There's over 1,000 comments of people raving about this content and I'm certain you'll agree it's one of the best presentations you've watched all year.
Watch "The Simple Truth About Trends" now!
The Gold ETF Trader
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Trading the eMinis....a lot easier then you think - New Video
Many traders are CRUSHING it in the eMinis right now! At the same time, far more traders are gripped with fear and struggling just to break even. The difference?
Trade with confidence and consistency
As you know, you build both when you understand the best times of the day to trade, and how to avoid the common mistakes and 'hidden' pitfalls that prevent consistent profits.
Trading veteran Todd Mitchell of Trading Concepts just came out with a video training that shows the hurdles holding back most traders from making money (using his actual charts!)
Watch closely as he shows you how to pull predictable profits from the eMinis while only using a single chart! The knowledge he shares will shortcut your learning curve and help you avoid falling victim to shady advice.
When you watch the video, I'm almost certain you'll uncover several nuggets of wisdom for eliminating mistakes that will cost you profits. This is not just about gain, it's about acting prudently to prevent and avoid financial pain!
Watch "eMini Trading Strategies, Tips and Techniques"
Friday, September 6, 2013
Weekly Gold futures Recap
From our trading partner Mike Seery.....
Gold futures this week saw extremely volatile trade finishing out this Friday afternoon up $14 at 1, 387 an ounce and traded as low as 1,358 this morning before the U.S unemployment report came out showing we added 169,000 new jobs which was disappointing to traders thinking that the Federal Reserve will not taper pushing many commodities higher this afternoon. Tensions in Syria as well are starting to flare up as it looks like Pres. Obama is determine have some type of strike against Syria which also lent support to prices this afternoon as gold is kind of stuck in a range between 1,430 & 1,350 looking for some new fundamental news to dictate short term prices.
I’m still advising traders to be long the gold market with either some type of bull call spread limiting your risk to what the premium costs or if you’re a futures trader possibly be long the mini contract or big contract depending on account size as I do think worldwide problems are here to stay and there might be a real need to own gold once again. The chart structure in gold is very good; however this is a high risk trade as you’re having $30 to $50 swings on the daily basis so you must respect money when you’re trading this market because of the high risk at the present time.
TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT –RISK--HIGH
PTU Free Webinar Schedule...Get signed up NOW!
Gold futures this week saw extremely volatile trade finishing out this Friday afternoon up $14 at 1, 387 an ounce and traded as low as 1,358 this morning before the U.S unemployment report came out showing we added 169,000 new jobs which was disappointing to traders thinking that the Federal Reserve will not taper pushing many commodities higher this afternoon. Tensions in Syria as well are starting to flare up as it looks like Pres. Obama is determine have some type of strike against Syria which also lent support to prices this afternoon as gold is kind of stuck in a range between 1,430 & 1,350 looking for some new fundamental news to dictate short term prices.
I’m still advising traders to be long the gold market with either some type of bull call spread limiting your risk to what the premium costs or if you’re a futures trader possibly be long the mini contract or big contract depending on account size as I do think worldwide problems are here to stay and there might be a real need to own gold once again. The chart structure in gold is very good; however this is a high risk trade as you’re having $30 to $50 swings on the daily basis so you must respect money when you’re trading this market because of the high risk at the present time.
TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT –RISK--HIGH
PTU Free Webinar Schedule...Get signed up NOW!
Monday, September 2, 2013
"Beating the Market Makers" John Carter's Webinar Replay
Over 10,000 traders watched the live webinar on Tuesday and John does limit seating so sign up right away before traders fill all of the slots.
Just Click here to Register Now
Here's what he'll be covering...
- How to be on the same side as the Market Maker
- How to protect yourself in a trade
- How to pick the right stock at the right time
- What Wall Street doesn't want you to know about weekly options
- The one simple trick to put the odds in your favor
And much more......
This timely webinar replay will take place this Wednesday, August 22nd at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
Click here to register
After you register you will receive reminder emails automatically so you don't miss the webinar. I don't know if they'll be recording this, or if he'll ever share this information again, so don't miss out.
We'll see you in this free training class, then we'll see you in the markets. Will you be trading with us....or against us?
The Gold ETF Trader
Market Makers.....Can you be on the same side of the trade?
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