Gold Market Commentary For Tuesday Morning Sept. 6th

Is gold prepared to make a double top on Tuesday and move into the much talked about "September correction" or is gold ready to make a bullish move past 1917.90 and into uncharted territory?

Gold was higher in Monday evenings overnight session and posted a new all time high due to renewed concern over Europe's debt crises. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above August's high crossing at 1915.00 would renew October's rally into a new round of bullish moves. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1805.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline during September.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1920.70. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1805.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1701.70. Gold pivot point for Tuesday morning is 1896.10.

Chris Vermeulen: The Black Monday the Public Doesn’t Know About

Tonight I jumped on the computer so see what the futures market was up to. The good news was that our short trade on the equities market was up 10% from our entry point last week. The bad news was that the stock market overseas was selling off big and so were US stocks. It was a black Monday in both the sky and on the screen…

I’m not really sure how many people watch the futures market but I do know the majority of people do not. So Tuesday morning there will be a lot of people in a panic when they see stocks gap down sharply.

Taking a look at the 4 hour charts you can see the recent price action which unfolded today. We have been anticipating this from early last week. So none of this should be a surprise.

Dollar Index 4 Hour Chart:
The dollar index broke out of it falling pattern and has made a run up to the first resistance level of 75.40. I feel we could see it go a little higher on Tuesday but overall it looks ready for a pause or pullback here.

SP500 Futures 4 Hour Chart:
The equities market has fallen sharply in the past week and the green circle is where we shorted the market using the SDS etf. We did take partial profits last week to lock in 7.4% profit in a couple days, but we still hold the balance of the position which is currently up over 10% using today’s futures price.

The SP500 looks to be getting oversold here and is now entering the previous low set a few weeks back. I will be looking to tighten stops and or exit the position early this week before a sharp rebound takes place.

Bond Futures 4 Hour Chart:
Bonds are a safe haven for investors when fear is running high. The past couple trading session’s the price of bonds have shot up. This tells me panic selling in the stocks market has starting and that generally means we are nearing and tradable bottom for stocks…..

Gold Futures 4 Hour Chart:
Gold is the other safe haven. Here again we see money flow into gold at a very quick pace….We will need to see some resolutions in Euro land before gold will trade lower or sideways, but until then I think scared money is going to keep rolling into gold.

Crude Oil Futures 4 Hour Chart:
Oil has drifted its way up into a resistance level as of late last week only to find overhead supply. Once the selling started oil slid lower at a steady rate all the way back down to a short term support zone. Now we are waiting to see if it will make a double bottom at $79 or bounce here

Weekend Trading Conclusion:

In short, Tuesday will be a volatile session judging from today’s sharp price action. Fear is driving prices at the moment and until everyone panics out of stock positions and dumps their money into the save havens we will not see a bottom form. Generally this takes 2-5 days to play out but time will tell.

I hope this quick Labor Day update helps get you back on track for trading this week.
Consider joining me at The Gold and Oil Guy for ETF trade ideas on the SP500, Oil, Gold, and Silver with great accuracy. Check it out at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com

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OIl N Gold: Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Gold's rebound from 1705.4 extend further to as high as 1887.4 last week and seems to be accelerating. Initial bias remains on the upside for 1917.9 high. Break will confirm up trend resumption and should target 2000 psychological level. On the downside, break of 1815.5 minor support will flip bias to the downside towards 1705.4 to continue the consolidation from 1917.9.

In the bigger picture, firstly, gold's long term up trend is still intact and there is no signal of reversal yet. Current development suggests that gold will attempt to make a new record high above 1917.9 in near term possibly to 61.8% projection of 1478.3 to 1917.9 from 1705.4 at 1997.1. But we'll be cautious on another near term reversal near to 2000 psychological level and finally bring some lengthier consolidation. But in any case, we won't consider medium term reversal possibly before sustained break of 55 days EMA (now at 1691.7)

In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 and there is no sign of topping yet. Current up trend could now be targeting 161.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1945.6. Sustained trading above 2000 psychological level should pave the way to 261.8% projection at 2727.2.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Gold Bulls Take New Momentum into the Holiday Weekend

The gold market put in what can only be described as a solid gold performance. Should gold close where it is presently trading around the $1,873 level, it will be a all time high weekly close in this market. Our analysis of the gold market building support getting ready to move higher was correct, and all of our Trade Triangles are in a positive mode.

With a +100 Chart Analysis Score it would appear that this market remains in a strong upward trend. Short term, intermediate and long term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.


Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90

David Morgan: Gold Must Brace for a Correction

David Morgan, founder of Silver-Investor.com, says that gold and silver could see a short term pop but that both metals will need to consolidate further.

Gold Market Commentary For Friday Morning

Gold moved higher in overnight trading as it extends the rebound off last week's low. Golds sharp move higher is fueled by weak unemployment numbers released this morning and a large "camp" of traders that are looking at gold prices being triggered by the "QE III is coming" train of thought.

This mornings move give gold bulls fresh momentum as Stochastics and RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends the rebound off last week's low, August's high crossing at 1915.00 is the next upside target.

Closes below last week's low crossing at 1701.70 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline during September.

First resistance is August's high crossing at 1915.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1701.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1686.80. Gold pivot point for Friday morning is 1826.10.

Gold Closes Lower But Continues to Show Strong Upward Trend

The gold market continues to chug along as it has for the past 8 days. This market appears to be building some support for a move to go higher. All of our Trade Triangles are in a positive mode. With a +90 Chart Analysis Score it would appear that this market remains in a strong upward trend.

Gold closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1785.20. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1701.70 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above August's high crossing at 1915.00 are needed to renew this year's rally.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1840.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1915.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1701.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1686.80.

Short term, intermediate and long term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.

Dollar’s On the Verge of a Relief Rally...... Look Out!

From Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy.Com........

Let’s talk about the dollar for a moment… The US Dollar has been stuck in a very large trading range during the past 4 months. But when the dollar actually breaks out of this pattern in either direction we should see some big price movements across the board in stocks and commodities.

From July through mid-August I was bearish on the dollar. But over the past 2 weeks the price action has become more neutral/bullish in my opinion. Its clear there is still indecision with the dollar value because every surge in price either up or down is quickly followed by a surge in the opposite direction. The key here is that the support level down at the 73.50 area has held more than three times and now I think the downward momentum is about to shift. The UUP bullish dollar etf is a good option.

Dollar Index Chart

Gold Chart:
Looking at the gold chart I see potential for another sharp drop to the low $1600’s. While I like the look of this chart for lower prices there is still a wild card which is the Euro-Land issues… I’m not willing to bet on lower prices because we could wake up any day to some poor news which instantly sends gold higher. Rather I am waiting for things to unfold then look to buy again for another 10-20% gain on the next rally.

Crude Oil Chart:
This chart is straight forward… The trend is down and at this time all bounces are to be looked at as shorting opportunities.

SP500 Index:
The equities market has broken down sharply over the past couple months and now we are seeing a rebound and small cap stocks are making big gains. With the dollar looking bullish and stocks trading up at resistance I have a feeling we may see another downward move within the next week or so to test the lows or make a new low before putting in a real bottom.

Mid-Week Trend Trading Conclusion:

In short, I feel the market overall is leaning towards lower prices in the coming week or two. After that we will have to re-analyze because it may be a fantastic buying opportunity for stocks and commodities. Consider joining me at The Gold And Oil Guy for ETF trade ideas on the SP500, Oil, Gold, and Silver with great accuracy. 

Gold Market Commentary For Thursday Morning

Gold was lower in Wednesday evenings overnight trading due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of the rebounds off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are likely near term. And those higher price moves should meet strong resistance at the August high crossing at 1915, limiting the upside move and bringing continued consolidation.

Closes below last week's low crossing at 1701.70 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline during September. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1915.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1701.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1686.80. Gold pivot point for Thursdays trading is 1829.30.