Don Kaufman shows us how to "Protect & Profit" in any Market

Today we want to introduce the newest member of our team, Don Kaufman. Don has made quite a mark in the last couple months with the introduction of his new TheoTrade program. Truth is, some of our readers have stated they are getting more from his free videos then some of the more expensive programs they have purchased.

Don will be bringing us a free webinar monthly to keep us on the cutting edge of these extremely volatile markets. Just take advantage of any one of his free items. Getting his free eBook or even just watching his most recent free video will guarantee that you will get notified of the free webinars.

So what's in the "How to Protect & Profit in Any Market" eBook?

This 50 page eBook [visit here for free download] will teach you what you need to know to start playing the markets instead of the markets playing you.

Your Portfolio Deserves More Than a 50/50 Chance 
It has been shown statistically, over the long run, that fundamental and technical analysis is right about 50% of the time. Flipping a coin will give you the same percentage. As the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Malkiel states, “Technical and Fundamental analysis is a science giving astrology a good name.” Why flip a coin when you can use high probability options strategies?

Diversification is Dead
As a Wall Street saying goes, "When they raid the house they take everyone." Professionals consider diversification as a hedge for people who don’t know how to hedge. Think about it - would you protect the value of your own home against a potential fire by diversifying, that is, buying two houses so if one burns down, the appreciation in the other offsets your loss? Of course not! You insure your home so if it burns down, the insurance covers most of the loss. Welcome to one aspect of using options. Real professionals know how to use options to protect their portfolio from any shock to the markets.

Be The House 
Today, investing in the stock market is a big gamble, almost like going to Vegas and playing the slots. And we all know what happens with slot machines. The House always wins. It may take a loss occasionally, but the overall strategy assures that the House will always come out on top. Options let's you turn the tide and be the house. Find out how you can put the odds in your favor.

Get Don's FREE eBook "The Rebel's Guide to Trading Options"....Just Visit Here!

See you in the markets,
The Gold ETF Trader

About Don Kaufman 
Don is one of the industry's leading financial strategists and educational authorities with 18 years of financial industry experience. Prior to co-founding TheoTrade, Mr. Kaufman spent 6 years at TD Ameritrade as Director of the Trader Group. At TD Ameritrade Mr. Kaufman handled thinkorswim® content and client education which included the design, build, and execution of what has become the industry standard in financial education. He started his career at thinkorswim® in 2000 (acquired by TD Ameritrade in 2009), where he served as chief derivatives instructor, helping the firm progress into the industry leader in retail options trading and investor education services.

Precious Metals Take Center Stage....Let's Follow the Yellow Brick Road

By Jeff Thomas

For over a hundred years, it’s been theorised that author L. Frank Baum wrote his 1900 book, “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz”, as a fanciful way to explain the economic situation at the time and that the Yellow Brick Road was a reference to the path created by gold ownership. Whether or not the theory is correct, for many people today, “Follow the Yellow Brick Road” might serve as a mantra for alleviating economic woes.

What will happen is that one day, gold will suddenly be up $100 per ounce, then the next day, $200 per ounce. At first the pundits will be claiming that it’s an anomaly, but as it continues rising, a point will be reached when the average person says to himself, “This seems to be a trend. I’d better buy some gold.” 

Unfortunately, once the trend is underway, the price that day will have no bearing on whether gold is available. Your local coin shop may be sold out. If you go online, the mints may say that demand is exceeding supply. Large entities will be buying all they can get and the smaller buyers will be way down on the order list, unlikely to take delivery of even a single ounce.

These Are the Good Old Days

Gold has experienced a four year bear market and only recently has begun to rise again. But is it in reality a barbarous relic? Not by a long shot. For over 5,000 years, whenever people have experienced erratic economic periods, they’ve bought gold in order to stabilise their economic position. This has particularly been true whenever fiat currencies have been on the rise and were in danger of hyper-inflating, as in recent years. Most currencies are in decline against the U.S. dollar—a currency which, itself, is very much in danger of collapse in the not-too-distant future.

In the ’70s, I was buying gold in London, as it rose from $35. It reached a high of $850 in January, 1980, then crashed. When gold dropped below $400, I began buying Krugerrands. Sounds like a bargain, and yet, word on the street was that gold was headed further south. But I was buying long. I was not playing the market; I was building my economic insurance policy. I wasn’t too fussed over price fluctuations, as my gold holdings were meant to cover me if my other investments proved to be a mistake.

At present, gold is well above the high of 1989, but, if we adjust for inflation, we see that gold is actually a bargain at present. This excellent Casey Research chart from 2014 explains it better than mere words:

This tells us that $8,800 would not be an unreasonable level for gold today, if conditions were as dire as they were in 1980. However, conditions are far more dire—debt levels are far beyond any historical levels and markets are in a bubble, just waiting for the arrival of a pin.

A decade ago, when gold topped $700, I predicted $1,500 at some point and even my closest colleagues wondered what I’d been smoking. But it turned out that my prediction was, if anything, conservative. Over the last four years, some of the world’s most informed prognosticators—Eric Sprott, Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, and Jim Sinclair—have all predicted gold to rise to between $5,000 and $7,000, and some have suggested numbers as high as $50,000. But this hasn’t happened. Are they wrong? No, it just hasn’t happened as of yet.

Conversely, Harry Dent has predicted a drop to $750. So, who’s right? Well, actually, they may all be right. After a crash in the markets, deflation is a certainty, as brokers and investors dump investments of every type in order to cover margin losses. This panic sell off will most assuredly include gold, even though the holders will not wish to sell their gold. This panic promises to create an immediate and possibly very dramatic downward spike in gold.

However, large numbers of long term investors already have their orders in for any price below $1,000. If the spike drops below that number, it will therefore be brief, as every ounce that hits the market at $999 is scooped up. In addition, the Federal Reserve will make good on its decades-long promise to roll the printing presses to counter any sudden deflation. That very act will light the fuse on the gold rocket and send it skyward.

Will the Sun Rise in the Morning or Set in the Evening?

The argument over whether gold will drop to $750 or rise to $5,000 is a pointless one. Any understanding of basic economics assures us that we shall see both sudden deflation and dramatic inflation. It’s as natural and inevitable as sunrise and sunset. (By the way, several of the above individuals have standing bets with each other as to the $750 number. The prize? An ounce of gold.)

But it matters little who will win the bets. What matters is the overview. Rickety economic times are now upon us and they will soon morph into crisis times. In such times, precious metals always return to centre stage, as paper currencies and electronic currencies return to their intrinsic worth of zero. Gold does not so much rise against fiat currencies, as fiat currencies collapse against gold.

Most assuredly, we shall see a dramatic rise in gold, but, just as in the ‘70s, the average person will fail to understand why and will simply chase the upward trend. When gold hits $2,000, but no one is willing to sell for under, say, $2,500, those who are chasing the trend will pay the $2,500 and that will become the new price across the board. Then it will leap higher—again and again, as monetary panic grips the investment world. The inflation-adjusted 1980 price of $8,800 should not be a surprise at all—in fact it would be low, as, in the coming years, conditions will be far more dire than in 1980. Gold may well blow through $10,000. Even the $50,000 figure is not impossible, as we shall be seeing a runaway bull market where those chasing the trend carry gold beyond any rational value.

But gold has an intrinsic value. 2,000 years ago, an ounce of gold could buy you a good suit of clothes. That’s still true today. A gold mania will fuel the gold price beyond anything logical, but a correction will be equally inevitable, dropping it to its intrinsic value. We shall see a gold rise for the record books. The wise investor should already have stocked up his supply of physical gold and gotten rid of gold ETFs. He should already have his seat belt fastened and ready for take off. We’re off to see the wizard.

Editor’s Note: Owning gold is the first step to protecting your wealth from stock market crashes, currency collapses or destructive government policies. But there are many other steps you can take to protect yourself during an economic collapse. We put together a free video to show you exactly how. 

Click here to watch this video now.

The article Follow the Yellow Brick Road was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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New Video: Two Critical Things Every Options Trader Must Know

Our trading partners at Simpler Options are back with another free webinar. This time it's "Precise Short Term Options Setups for Low Risk Profits in Volatile Markets" hosted by John Carter and Chris Belcher.

As always John and Chris have provided a free video to give you some hints as to what we will be covering....Watch that video now!

It all starts this Tuesday June 7th at 7:00 pm central.

Just visit this link to reserve your seat for this game changing webinar right now since all of these webinars get over subscribed.

Watch Todays Video and Sign Up for the Webinar Right Here

These two highly respected traders (with more than 50 years of combined experience) reveal low risk option strategies designed to catch quick explosive moves in volatile stocks. Get ready to take notes because we’re going to review results from actual live trades executed in real time during current market conditions.

Red Thumb Trades: Stop wasting time (and precious capital) on dud stocks. Discover how to find the right options to trade on the right stocks today.

Precision Exit Strategies: Finally know when to take fast profits intraday and when to let your position turn into a swing trade so you can get maximum gains.

Simple Option Setups: Cut through all the jargon and ‘Greek’ mumbo jumbo and learn how to follow a step by step process to create consistent income trading stock options.

The Ultimate Timing Secret: How to know in advance which stocks are likely to explode (in any time frame) and when to jump in with confidence

Miracle Grow Positions: Simple rapid growth strategies for small accounts. Discover why it’s possible to make a whole lot more money with options than you can with trading stocks. The key is to follow a few precise option setups.

Massive Mistakes Exposed: Learn why most traders will never be consistently profitable and discover how to actually profit from the most common (and costly) mistakes.

The Perfect Storm: Why the current volatile conditions are a trader’s paradise, and key catalysts to watch for in the coming months.

Case Study: Review one of John's live trades on TSLA that brought in $17k in 1 day (along with several other recent real money examples so you can see these setups in action).

As always, make sure you get your reserved seat now while you and make sure you log in early on Tuesday so you don't lose your spot.

Reserve Seat Right Here and Now

See you Tuesday evening,
Gold ETF Trader


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Believe It or Not, It’s Happening to Gold

Last night as I was going over my charts and running my end of the day analysis the charts jumped out at me with a trade setup and wanted to share my cycle chart for gold with you. The price chart of gold below is exactly what my cycle analysis told us to look for last week WELL ahead of the today’s news and its things play out I as I feel they will then we stand to make some pretty good money as gold falls in value during the month of April.

If you have been following my work for any length of time then you know big price movements in the market like today (Tuesday, March 29th) based around the FED news ARE NOT and SHOULD NOT be of any surprise. In fact, this charts told use about today’s pop 2 weeks ago and we have been waiting for it ever since. The news is simply the best way to get the masses on board with market moves and gets them on the wrong side of the market before it makes a big move in the other direction, most times… not always, though.

Take a look at this chart below. You’ll see two cycle indicators, one pink and one blue. The pink cycle line is a cluster of various cycles blended together which allows us to view the overall market trend of biased looking forward 5 – 30 days. The blue cycle line is a cluster of much shorter time frame cycles in this tells us when we should expect strong moves in the same direction of the pink cycles or counter trend pullbacks within the trend.

One quick point to note with cycle trading is that the height and depth of the cycle does not mean the price will rise or fall to those levels, it simply tells us if the market has an upward or downward bias. The current cycle analysis for gold along with the current price is telling us that today the short term cycle topped which is the blue line and our main trend cycle is already heading lower. The odds favor gold should roll over and make new multi-month Lows in August.

Gold Trading Conclusion:

In short, we have been waiting for gold to have a technical breakdown and to retrace back up into a short term overbought condition. Today Tuesday, March 29 it looks as though we finally have the setup. Over the next 5 to 15 days I expect gold to drop along with silver and gold stocks. There are many ways to play this through inverse exchange traded funds or short selling gold, silver or gold stocks.

This year and 2017 I believe are going to be incredible years for both traders and investors. If treated correctly, it can be a life changing experience financially for some individuals. Join my pre-market video newsletter and start your day with a hot cup of coffee and my market forecast video.

Sign up right here > www.The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Weekly Gold and Silver Markets Recap with Mike Seery

The institutional traders are back from vacation and trading volume is picking up. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,121 an ounce while currently trading at 1,106 down about $15 this week trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average near a 3 week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure.

I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend such as the silver market which I am currently recommending a short position because the chart structure is outstanding. Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven but things have settled down putting short term pressure on gold.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time and focus on silver.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the December contract are trading lower by about $.30 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 14.33 an ounce as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 14.70 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 14.95 as you’re going to have to be patient as that stop loss will not be lower for quite some time.

The next major level of support is at the contract low around the $14 mark and I do think that’s a possibility that could be retested in next week’s trade as the chart structure is still very solid at the current time. Silver prices settled last Friday at 14.55 while currently at 14.33 down over $.20 for the trading week as prices have been consolidating the recent downdraft in prices over the last three weeks, but the long term and short term trend still remain bearish in my opinion, so continue to play this to the downside while taking advantage of any price rally while maintaining the proper risk management strategy.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average closing at 3 week low in today’s trade as the commodity markets still looks bearish in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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This Weeks Free "500k Proof and Trading Plan" Webinar with John Carter

We will be attending an live online event this Wednesday evening with John Carter and we would love to have you join us. Please reserve your seat asap since John's wildly popular webinars fill up quickly.

Sign Up for the "500k Proof and Plan Webinar"

John is a special trader for sure, and what really sets him apart is his ability to pass on his skills. He has a "knack" for making his trading methods easy to understand so you can put them to work the following trading day.

John became famous for the "Big Trade" he made with Tesla [TSLA] in 2014. Changing the way wall street looks at using options for protection and profit. And this weeks webinar will make it clear, it's not an unattainable thing to trade like John. And he will deliver this Wednesday, that's why we are going and that's why we believe you should as well.

Register for live event and secure recording HERE

See you Wednesday evening,
Gold ETF Trader


Get ready for Wednesdays with John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!

Weekly Gold Futures Summary with Mike Seery

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,134 an ounce while currently trading at 1,122 down about $12 this week trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average near a 2 week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure.

The monthly unemployment report number was released this morning in the United States adding 173,000 new jobs which was below consensus having very little impact on gold prices today as I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend.

Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven but things have settled down putting short term pressure on gold.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

When Do You Add To Your Winning Trade?

This has always been a very interesting question because it can create a situation of going from rags to riches or from riches to rags in a very short amount of time. Many times I see traders abuse pyramiding or adding to positions with utter lack of any type of money management system in place and letting it ride which usually ends up in a complete wipeout of capital and sometimes even worse.

Commodity prices can move very quickly with large gains or loses like we experienced in the 2008 crash of stock and commodity prices, so you always have to use stops and not fall in love or marry a position. In my opinion the answer to this question is add only once to the trade if that position has made you at least 2%-3% of your account balance while still having stop losses on all positions that equal 2% loss at a maximum risk.

Remember your stop loses will be different on both positions because of the fact that you entered those trades at a different date and price.

Here's more of Mike's calls on commodities for this week.....Just Click Here



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The Next Silver Bull May Have Already Started

By Laurynas Vegys

Silver is down 7.1% this year. Will this weakness persist? To find out, let’s look at the key factors in the silver market this year.

• Like gold, silver fell as the US dollar rose on the back of expectations that the Fed will hike rates.
• World demand for physical silver fell 4% in 2014, largely due to a record 19.5% drop in investment demand.
• Silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) did not see big liquidations in 2014. ETF holdings grew by 1.4 million ounces and recorded their highest year end level at 636 million ounces.

The first two factors helped push silver 19.9% lower last year. That’s more than gold or any other precious metal fell. Despite this, silver production rose 5% in 2014. That added to the pressure on prices.

Why did miners produce more silver when prices were falling? Because of:

• By-product metal. Around 75% of the silver mined is a by-product at gold or base metal mines. These producers will keep mining silver, almost regardless of price.
• Reduced cash costs. The primary silver producers have cut costs since they peaked in 2012. The main way miners do that is by boosting production to achieve economies of scale.
• Bull market hangover. Precious metals were in a major bull market from 2001 to 2011. Producers built a lot of mines in response. Nobody wants to pull the plug on a new mine that’s losing money if they think prices will go higher.

That’s the backdrop. Now let’s look at this year’s fundamentals.

Supply

Silver mine output has risen for 12 consecutive years (silver mine supply is a little different, due to hedging, but also trending upward). This year could break this trend. Industry experts at GFMS forecast up to a 4% decline in silver output in 2015. Why? It’s not rocket science. There are now fewer major new mines under construction due to lower metals prices. That leaves scrap supply. But scrap comes from jewelry, and sellers are price sensitive. People like to sell granny’s silver tea set when prices are up. We expect subdued scrap supply until silver heads much higher.

Demand

Investment demand - that’s us - is a big chunk of total silver demand: 18.4% as of the latest figures.
There was a big drop in investment demand last year: 19.5%. This tells us that most short-term investors and sellers have left the market. We don’t know any “silver bugs” who were selling. That means that today’s bullion is in stronger hands. And that means that any new buying will have a strong impact on prices.
But will there be buyers?

The Silver Institute expects more silver demand from investors this year. They say that the first half of 2015 sales of silver bars were the fifth highest on record.

Photovoltaics (PV) is another source of silver demand that many analysts expect to rise in 2015 and beyond. Global PV demand is set to increase by 30% in 2015, according to IHS analysts. China alone has plans to install 17 gigawatts of solar capacity by the end of the year.

The solar industry consumes a small amount of silver compared to jewelry and other electronics. Yet, if PV demand delivers in 2015, it will become the third-largest source of fabrication demand for silver.

Wildcard: Tesla plans to put batteries big enough to power a house in every home. What happens if that takes root is anyone’s guess… but it will be big. Really big. And the impact on demand for silver would be just as huge.

The Deficit

Silver supply went into deficit during much of the big run up from 2001 to 2011. That may happen again. Silver Institute expects the silver supply deficit to grow to 57.7 million ounces in 2015. (Note that even if physical mine supply is up, net supply can be down if a lot of the mine supply was forward sold as hedges.) If the institute is right, it’ll be bullish for silver prices.

The Dollar and the Fed

We believe the dollar is grossly overvalued, and we are not alone. HSBC thinks the greenback’s rise since 2014 could be in its final stage. For the three months between April and June, the US dollar fell against every developed-market currency (save for the yen and the New Zealand dollar).

Many investors seem convinced that the Fed will raise interest as soon as September. We view this as unlikely at this stage. Yes, tightening US monetary policy would propel the dollar to new highs. But an even stronger dollar would mean slicing billions off the US GDP; not exactly a desirable situation from the standpoint of the Fed given the sluggish growth of the economy.  We think the Fed could delay raising rates until 2016. It might even stop talking about rate hikes indefinitely. Each delay, the dollar will get whacked, and that’s good for precious metals.

On the other hand, if the Fed does nudge rates higher this year, it would likely dampen the stock market. That would increase demand for silver and gold. This could push silver prices much higher, given the small size of the market.

The Gold-Silver Ratio

The gold-silver ratio (GSR) tells you how many ounces of silver you need to buy one ounce of gold. The record shows that the GSR often surges during a recession. (See the shaded areas on the chart below.)

Silver is about 17 times more abundant than gold in the earth’s crust. Silver and gold prices were close to this ratio for most of history. These facts make many investors think that the GSR should be 17-to-1 and that eventually it will be.

They may be right, but we’ve never found the GSR to be a strong predictor of gold or silver prices. To us, the GSR “suggests a lot but proves nothing.”

Conclusion

The fundamentals are positive for silver in 2015: less mine supply, and the healthy demand we already see is bullish. The greater demand that’s possible could create a real supply crunch. As a result, we expect silver to hold on throughout 2015 and perhaps even increase faster than gold, if the whole precious metals sector turns positive this year.

As for guessing the future, we have no crystal ball. We can say that Louis’ case for 2015 as a win-win year for silver is backed by the numbers.

P.S. If silver moves off its current level of $15 and into the $20 or $30 areas, silver investors could make large gains. But owners of a unique silver-related security could make gains that are five... 10... even 100 times greater. And right now is a once-in-a-decade chance to buy them very, very cheap.

Our friends at Casey Research are the world’s leading experts in this sector. And they’re EXTREMELY bullish on this rare opportunity. Read on here for details.

The article The Next Silver Bull May Have Already Started was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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A Guidebook to Investing in Gold

By Jared Dillian

“A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a bunch of liars standing next to it.”

I started investing in gold in 2005. Not a bad time, right?

Here’s why I started: I was the ETF trader at Lehman Brothers at the time. A couple of guys came by to talk about this crazy idea they had about a gold ETF. I think one was from the World Gold Council and the other was from State Street. The WGC guy brought along a 10 ounce bar of gold. At the time, it was worth almost $6,000.

The ETF was SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).(* Please see disclosure below)

I ended up buying GLD, because I’m a trader. Trading stocks is what I do, so it’s easy for me to buy something with a ticker. I didn’t even know you could buy physical gold. It was 2005 or 2006, so I’m not even sure if the online bullion dealers were up and running yet. If you wanted to buy gold, you’d have to be in the know, go to some hole-in-the-wall coin dealer, get your face ripped off.

I have owned GLD since. And along the way, I learned a lot about investing in physical gold, and I bought that, too.

But that’s not the interesting part.

I Loathe Gold Culture

One of the things I figured out as I was starting to invest in precious metals is that a lot of the other guys investing in gold and silver were… not the kind of guys I really wanted to hang out with. Neckbeard McGoldbug. You know the type.

I’m talking about the ridiculous conspiracy theories, the bizarre politics that are so far right, they’re left. The hatred toward banks. I still don’t understand it. These are supposedly right wing guys who found themselves on the same side of most issues as Matt Taibbi and Elizabeth Warren. The apocalyptic outlook, the relentlessly bearish views, the outright refusal to participate in one of the biggest (and most obvious) stock market rallies ever.

I am allegedly a right wing guy—and I’ll own it—but I am not that.

The other thing I discovered about these guys is that it’s useless to try to sell newsletters to them. They don’t believe in intellectual property. So part of my gold investing career has been figuring out what I am and what I’m not. I guess you could call me a classical liberal and monetarist who takes a keen interest in gold.

Freeze It, Personalize It, Polarize It

As the gold rally crested and rolled over, the mainstream financial media really started to go after the gold bugs. They were super annoying on the way up, and the (mostly liberal, Keynesian) pundits were crushing them on the way down. It’s gotten to the point where the only people left buying gold are… Neckbeard McGoldbug, and they’ve been thoroughly maligned for it.

If you recall, the whole idea was that quantitative easing (printing money) was going to create a lot of inflation. Plus, the budget deficit was about $1.8 trillion at the time, so we would have to monetize the debt.

It was a pretty good argument. And it worked for years. Then it stopped working.

The inflation the gold bugs predicted never happened. It was the biggest hoax perpetuated on investors, ever. So the beatdown from the Keynesians continues to this day, on Twitter, on blogs, in the news.

But maybe the gold bugs weren’t wrong—just super early.

I’m Not an Economist, But…..

I do remember this from a class I had: the quantity theory of money.

MV = PQ   I’m sure this looks familiar to many of you. So M, the supply of money, has gone way up:

But V, money velocity, has gone way down:

Given constant Q (quantity of goods), P (price) remains pretty much unchanged. So we will eventually get our inflation—if money velocity turns around and heads higher. There aren’t any good theories as to why money velocity continues to plummet. At least, I haven’t read any. I think we will have a similar inability to predict when it rises. This is overly simplistic, but I’m a simple guy.

Gold Is/Is Not for the Long Run

There are people who say gold should be x percent of your portfolio in all weather. I get it. It tends to be negatively correlated with other stuff, so it reduces the volatility of a portfolio. And as long as central banks are doing what they’re doing, the long term case for gold is pretty much intact, recent price action notwithstanding.

But let me tell you this. If central banks ever got religion and pulled a Volcker and hiked rates to the moon, it would be a remarkably bad time to hold gold. On the other hand, throughout history, there have been times where people were very sad that they didn’t own gold. I talk about one of them here.

It’s very real, and the history of fiat currencies is also quite sad. I am the furthest thing from an alarmist. I don’t think the dollar, or the euro, or any other currency is going to collapse, at least not imminently. But I also think the Fed doesn’t want to raise interest rates, possibly ever.

The ECB is printing, and you have the prospect of direct monetization. Japan is just insane. Even Sweden is printing money. And I can see a scenario where Canada, Australia, and Norway are all doing it too.

So: if the whole world is printing money, I’m okay with being long gold.

But in 2015, you really shouldn’t care about what people think.

*Disclosure: at the time of this writing, Jared Dillian was long GLD, SLV, and physical gold and silver.

Jared Dillian

The article The 10th Man: A Guidebook to Investing in Gold was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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Here's What the Next Gold Bull Market Will Look Like

By Jeff Clark

We measured every bull cycle of gold stocks and found there have been eight distinct upcycles since 1975.
We also discovered something exciting: Only one was less than a double. (A second was 99.9%.)
Even more enticing is that the biggest one—a 601.5% advance in the early 2000s—occurred just after a prolonged bear market.

And our current bear market is longer than that one.

To get a sense for the potential upside, we applied the percentage gain from each of those upcycles to our recommended BIG GOLD picks.

We can’t show you our entire portfolio out of fairness to paying subscribers. But look what those gains would mean to GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (based on the June 1 price).

Gold ETF	Current Share Price	1976– 1980	1982– 1983	1986– 1987	1989– 1990	1993– 1994	2000– 2003	2005– 2008	2008– 2011
		554.2%	205.1%	141.8%	51.5%	99.9%	601.5%	206.4%	272.5%
GDX	$19.49	$127.51	$59.45	$47.14	$29.53	$38.96	$136.72	$59.72	$72.60

Keep two things in mind about this table:

1. The percentage gain from each past bull market is calculated using an index. The stronger companies will perform better than a static ETF.

2. It’s not unreasonable to think that the gains in the next bull market will be similar to some of the higher returns listed above. That’s because stocks will be rising from the depths of one of the more severe bear markets.

Here’s what the price for popular royalty company Royal Gold would look like if it matched past bull markets.

Royalty Company	Current Share Price	1976– 1980	1982– 1983	1986– 1987	1989– 1990	1993– 1994	2000– 2003	2005– 2008	2008– 2011
		554.2%	205.1%	141.8%	51.5%	99.9%	601.5%	206.4%	272.5%
Royal Gold	$64.23	$420.21	$195.93	$155.34	$97.30	$128.38	$450.56	$196.79	$239.26

You might think royalty stocks won’t show similar gains going forward. It’s true they’ve already performed well. However, it’s more likely they’ll be wildly popular than anything else. That’s partly because there are only a few of them in this industry.

Now take a look at the prices our top silver pick would hit.

Silver Producer	Current Share Price	1976– 1980	1982– 1983	1986– 1987	1989– 1990	1993– 1994	2000– 2003	2005– 2008	2008– 2011
		554.2%	205.1%	141.8%	51.5%	99.9%	601.5%	206.4%	272.5%
Top BIG GOLD Silver Pick	$3.71	$24.27	$11.32	$8.97	$5.62	$7.42	$26.02	$11.37	$13.82

If silver rises along with gold in the next bull market—something we think is extremely likely—this small niche market will absolutely soar.

No other sector is as depressed as the mining sector. A return to anything close to some of the stronger past bull markets will hand us tremendous gains.

The June issue of BIG GOLD focuses on the top silver pick listed in the table. I’m convinced it will at least triple from current levels in the next precious metals bull market.

We have two very specific reasons why it will do so. And these two factors are unmatched by almost any other mid-tier or major producer.

Get our analysis along with the name of this stock in the just-released BIG GOLD.

We also include a special offer on bullion that has numismatic potential. These coins sell at bullion prices, yet will likely return much greater profit than standard bullion. And they come at discounted prices you won’t find elsewhere.

It’s “The Two Best Silver Plays to Buy Today”—a highly actionable issue that tells you exactly what to buy and why. Get it now.



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