Weekly Gold and Silver Markets Recap with Mike Seery

The institutional traders are back from vacation and trading volume is picking up. So who better to have than our trading partner Mike Seery back to give our readers a recap of this weeks trading and help us put together a plan for the upcoming week. 

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,121 an ounce while currently trading at 1,106 down about $15 this week trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average near a 3 week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure.

I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend such as the silver market which I am currently recommending a short position because the chart structure is outstanding. Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven but things have settled down putting short term pressure on gold.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time and focus on silver.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the December contract are trading lower by about $.30 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 14.33 an ounce as I’ve been recommending a short position from around 14.70 and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 14.95 as you’re going to have to be patient as that stop loss will not be lower for quite some time.

The next major level of support is at the contract low around the $14 mark and I do think that’s a possibility that could be retested in next week’s trade as the chart structure is still very solid at the current time. Silver prices settled last Friday at 14.55 while currently at 14.33 down over $.20 for the trading week as prices have been consolidating the recent downdraft in prices over the last three weeks, but the long term and short term trend still remain bearish in my opinion, so continue to play this to the downside while taking advantage of any price rally while maintaining the proper risk management strategy.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average closing at 3 week low in today’s trade as the commodity markets still looks bearish in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. Get more of Mike's calls on this Weeks Commodity Markets


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This Weeks Free "500k Proof and Trading Plan" Webinar with John Carter

We will be attending an live online event this Wednesday evening with John Carter and we would love to have you join us. Please reserve your seat asap since John's wildly popular webinars fill up quickly.

Sign Up for the "500k Proof and Plan Webinar"

John is a special trader for sure, and what really sets him apart is his ability to pass on his skills. He has a "knack" for making his trading methods easy to understand so you can put them to work the following trading day.

John became famous for the "Big Trade" he made with Tesla [TSLA] in 2014. Changing the way wall street looks at using options for protection and profit. And this weeks webinar will make it clear, it's not an unattainable thing to trade like John. And he will deliver this Wednesday, that's why we are going and that's why we believe you should as well.

Register for live event and secure recording HERE

See you Wednesday evening,
Gold ETF Trader


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Weekly Gold Futures Summary with Mike Seery

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,134 an ounce while currently trading at 1,122 down about $12 this week trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average near a 2 week low as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy with poor chart structure.

The monthly unemployment report number was released this morning in the United States adding 173,000 new jobs which was below consensus having very little impact on gold prices today as I still see no reason to own gold currently as the risk/reward is not your favor so look at other markets that are starting to trend.

Gold prices had a significant rally in the month of August bottoming out around 1,080 then rallying to 1,170 which was impressive in my opinion due to short covering and a flight to quality as the stock market has experienced volatility in recent weeks sending money out of stocks and into gold as a safe haven but things have settled down putting short term pressure on gold.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I am a trend follower and I do not like to trade choppy markets because they are extremely difficult in my opinion so avoid this market at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

When Do You Add To Your Winning Trade?

This has always been a very interesting question because it can create a situation of going from rags to riches or from riches to rags in a very short amount of time. Many times I see traders abuse pyramiding or adding to positions with utter lack of any type of money management system in place and letting it ride which usually ends up in a complete wipeout of capital and sometimes even worse.

Commodity prices can move very quickly with large gains or loses like we experienced in the 2008 crash of stock and commodity prices, so you always have to use stops and not fall in love or marry a position. In my opinion the answer to this question is add only once to the trade if that position has made you at least 2%-3% of your account balance while still having stop losses on all positions that equal 2% loss at a maximum risk.

Remember your stop loses will be different on both positions because of the fact that you entered those trades at a different date and price.

Here's more of Mike's calls on commodities for this week.....Just Click Here



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The Next Silver Bull May Have Already Started

By Laurynas Vegys

Silver is down 7.1% this year. Will this weakness persist? To find out, let’s look at the key factors in the silver market this year.

• Like gold, silver fell as the US dollar rose on the back of expectations that the Fed will hike rates.
• World demand for physical silver fell 4% in 2014, largely due to a record 19.5% drop in investment demand.
• Silver exchange traded funds (ETFs) did not see big liquidations in 2014. ETF holdings grew by 1.4 million ounces and recorded their highest year end level at 636 million ounces.

The first two factors helped push silver 19.9% lower last year. That’s more than gold or any other precious metal fell. Despite this, silver production rose 5% in 2014. That added to the pressure on prices.

Why did miners produce more silver when prices were falling? Because of:

• By-product metal. Around 75% of the silver mined is a by-product at gold or base metal mines. These producers will keep mining silver, almost regardless of price.
• Reduced cash costs. The primary silver producers have cut costs since they peaked in 2012. The main way miners do that is by boosting production to achieve economies of scale.
• Bull market hangover. Precious metals were in a major bull market from 2001 to 2011. Producers built a lot of mines in response. Nobody wants to pull the plug on a new mine that’s losing money if they think prices will go higher.

That’s the backdrop. Now let’s look at this year’s fundamentals.

Supply

Silver mine output has risen for 12 consecutive years (silver mine supply is a little different, due to hedging, but also trending upward). This year could break this trend. Industry experts at GFMS forecast up to a 4% decline in silver output in 2015. Why? It’s not rocket science. There are now fewer major new mines under construction due to lower metals prices. That leaves scrap supply. But scrap comes from jewelry, and sellers are price sensitive. People like to sell granny’s silver tea set when prices are up. We expect subdued scrap supply until silver heads much higher.

Demand

Investment demand - that’s us - is a big chunk of total silver demand: 18.4% as of the latest figures.
There was a big drop in investment demand last year: 19.5%. This tells us that most short-term investors and sellers have left the market. We don’t know any “silver bugs” who were selling. That means that today’s bullion is in stronger hands. And that means that any new buying will have a strong impact on prices.
But will there be buyers?

The Silver Institute expects more silver demand from investors this year. They say that the first half of 2015 sales of silver bars were the fifth highest on record.

Photovoltaics (PV) is another source of silver demand that many analysts expect to rise in 2015 and beyond. Global PV demand is set to increase by 30% in 2015, according to IHS analysts. China alone has plans to install 17 gigawatts of solar capacity by the end of the year.

The solar industry consumes a small amount of silver compared to jewelry and other electronics. Yet, if PV demand delivers in 2015, it will become the third-largest source of fabrication demand for silver.

Wildcard: Tesla plans to put batteries big enough to power a house in every home. What happens if that takes root is anyone’s guess… but it will be big. Really big. And the impact on demand for silver would be just as huge.

The Deficit

Silver supply went into deficit during much of the big run up from 2001 to 2011. That may happen again. Silver Institute expects the silver supply deficit to grow to 57.7 million ounces in 2015. (Note that even if physical mine supply is up, net supply can be down if a lot of the mine supply was forward sold as hedges.) If the institute is right, it’ll be bullish for silver prices.

The Dollar and the Fed

We believe the dollar is grossly overvalued, and we are not alone. HSBC thinks the greenback’s rise since 2014 could be in its final stage. For the three months between April and June, the US dollar fell against every developed-market currency (save for the yen and the New Zealand dollar).

Many investors seem convinced that the Fed will raise interest as soon as September. We view this as unlikely at this stage. Yes, tightening US monetary policy would propel the dollar to new highs. But an even stronger dollar would mean slicing billions off the US GDP; not exactly a desirable situation from the standpoint of the Fed given the sluggish growth of the economy.  We think the Fed could delay raising rates until 2016. It might even stop talking about rate hikes indefinitely. Each delay, the dollar will get whacked, and that’s good for precious metals.

On the other hand, if the Fed does nudge rates higher this year, it would likely dampen the stock market. That would increase demand for silver and gold. This could push silver prices much higher, given the small size of the market.

The Gold-Silver Ratio

The gold-silver ratio (GSR) tells you how many ounces of silver you need to buy one ounce of gold. The record shows that the GSR often surges during a recession. (See the shaded areas on the chart below.)

Silver is about 17 times more abundant than gold in the earth’s crust. Silver and gold prices were close to this ratio for most of history. These facts make many investors think that the GSR should be 17-to-1 and that eventually it will be.

They may be right, but we’ve never found the GSR to be a strong predictor of gold or silver prices. To us, the GSR “suggests a lot but proves nothing.”

Conclusion

The fundamentals are positive for silver in 2015: less mine supply, and the healthy demand we already see is bullish. The greater demand that’s possible could create a real supply crunch. As a result, we expect silver to hold on throughout 2015 and perhaps even increase faster than gold, if the whole precious metals sector turns positive this year.

As for guessing the future, we have no crystal ball. We can say that Louis’ case for 2015 as a win-win year for silver is backed by the numbers.

P.S. If silver moves off its current level of $15 and into the $20 or $30 areas, silver investors could make large gains. But owners of a unique silver-related security could make gains that are five... 10... even 100 times greater. And right now is a once-in-a-decade chance to buy them very, very cheap.

Our friends at Casey Research are the world’s leading experts in this sector. And they’re EXTREMELY bullish on this rare opportunity. Read on here for details.

The article The Next Silver Bull May Have Already Started was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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A Guidebook to Investing in Gold

By Jared Dillian

“A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a bunch of liars standing next to it.”

I started investing in gold in 2005. Not a bad time, right?

Here’s why I started: I was the ETF trader at Lehman Brothers at the time. A couple of guys came by to talk about this crazy idea they had about a gold ETF. I think one was from the World Gold Council and the other was from State Street. The WGC guy brought along a 10 ounce bar of gold. At the time, it was worth almost $6,000.

The ETF was SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).(* Please see disclosure below)

I ended up buying GLD, because I’m a trader. Trading stocks is what I do, so it’s easy for me to buy something with a ticker. I didn’t even know you could buy physical gold. It was 2005 or 2006, so I’m not even sure if the online bullion dealers were up and running yet. If you wanted to buy gold, you’d have to be in the know, go to some hole-in-the-wall coin dealer, get your face ripped off.

I have owned GLD since. And along the way, I learned a lot about investing in physical gold, and I bought that, too.

But that’s not the interesting part.

I Loathe Gold Culture

One of the things I figured out as I was starting to invest in precious metals is that a lot of the other guys investing in gold and silver were… not the kind of guys I really wanted to hang out with. Neckbeard McGoldbug. You know the type.

I’m talking about the ridiculous conspiracy theories, the bizarre politics that are so far right, they’re left. The hatred toward banks. I still don’t understand it. These are supposedly right wing guys who found themselves on the same side of most issues as Matt Taibbi and Elizabeth Warren. The apocalyptic outlook, the relentlessly bearish views, the outright refusal to participate in one of the biggest (and most obvious) stock market rallies ever.

I am allegedly a right wing guy—and I’ll own it—but I am not that.

The other thing I discovered about these guys is that it’s useless to try to sell newsletters to them. They don’t believe in intellectual property. So part of my gold investing career has been figuring out what I am and what I’m not. I guess you could call me a classical liberal and monetarist who takes a keen interest in gold.

Freeze It, Personalize It, Polarize It

As the gold rally crested and rolled over, the mainstream financial media really started to go after the gold bugs. They were super annoying on the way up, and the (mostly liberal, Keynesian) pundits were crushing them on the way down. It’s gotten to the point where the only people left buying gold are… Neckbeard McGoldbug, and they’ve been thoroughly maligned for it.

If you recall, the whole idea was that quantitative easing (printing money) was going to create a lot of inflation. Plus, the budget deficit was about $1.8 trillion at the time, so we would have to monetize the debt.

It was a pretty good argument. And it worked for years. Then it stopped working.

The inflation the gold bugs predicted never happened. It was the biggest hoax perpetuated on investors, ever. So the beatdown from the Keynesians continues to this day, on Twitter, on blogs, in the news.

But maybe the gold bugs weren’t wrong—just super early.

I’m Not an Economist, But…..

I do remember this from a class I had: the quantity theory of money.

MV = PQ   I’m sure this looks familiar to many of you. So M, the supply of money, has gone way up:

But V, money velocity, has gone way down:

Given constant Q (quantity of goods), P (price) remains pretty much unchanged. So we will eventually get our inflation—if money velocity turns around and heads higher. There aren’t any good theories as to why money velocity continues to plummet. At least, I haven’t read any. I think we will have a similar inability to predict when it rises. This is overly simplistic, but I’m a simple guy.

Gold Is/Is Not for the Long Run

There are people who say gold should be x percent of your portfolio in all weather. I get it. It tends to be negatively correlated with other stuff, so it reduces the volatility of a portfolio. And as long as central banks are doing what they’re doing, the long term case for gold is pretty much intact, recent price action notwithstanding.

But let me tell you this. If central banks ever got religion and pulled a Volcker and hiked rates to the moon, it would be a remarkably bad time to hold gold. On the other hand, throughout history, there have been times where people were very sad that they didn’t own gold. I talk about one of them here.

It’s very real, and the history of fiat currencies is also quite sad. I am the furthest thing from an alarmist. I don’t think the dollar, or the euro, or any other currency is going to collapse, at least not imminently. But I also think the Fed doesn’t want to raise interest rates, possibly ever.

The ECB is printing, and you have the prospect of direct monetization. Japan is just insane. Even Sweden is printing money. And I can see a scenario where Canada, Australia, and Norway are all doing it too.

So: if the whole world is printing money, I’m okay with being long gold.

But in 2015, you really shouldn’t care about what people think.

*Disclosure: at the time of this writing, Jared Dillian was long GLD, SLV, and physical gold and silver.

Jared Dillian

The article The 10th Man: A Guidebook to Investing in Gold was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

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Here's What the Next Gold Bull Market Will Look Like

By Jeff Clark

We measured every bull cycle of gold stocks and found there have been eight distinct upcycles since 1975.
We also discovered something exciting: Only one was less than a double. (A second was 99.9%.)
Even more enticing is that the biggest one—a 601.5% advance in the early 2000s—occurred just after a prolonged bear market.

And our current bear market is longer than that one.

To get a sense for the potential upside, we applied the percentage gain from each of those upcycles to our recommended BIG GOLD picks.

We can’t show you our entire portfolio out of fairness to paying subscribers. But look what those gains would mean to GDX, the Gold Miners ETF (based on the June 1 price).

Gold ETF	Current Share Price	1976– 1980	1982– 1983	1986– 1987	1989– 1990	1993– 1994	2000– 2003	2005– 2008	2008– 2011
		554.2%	205.1%	141.8%	51.5%	99.9%	601.5%	206.4%	272.5%
GDX	$19.49	$127.51	$59.45	$47.14	$29.53	$38.96	$136.72	$59.72	$72.60

Keep two things in mind about this table:

1. The percentage gain from each past bull market is calculated using an index. The stronger companies will perform better than a static ETF.

2. It’s not unreasonable to think that the gains in the next bull market will be similar to some of the higher returns listed above. That’s because stocks will be rising from the depths of one of the more severe bear markets.

Here’s what the price for popular royalty company Royal Gold would look like if it matched past bull markets.

Royalty Company	Current Share Price	1976– 1980	1982– 1983	1986– 1987	1989– 1990	1993– 1994	2000– 2003	2005– 2008	2008– 2011
		554.2%	205.1%	141.8%	51.5%	99.9%	601.5%	206.4%	272.5%
Royal Gold	$64.23	$420.21	$195.93	$155.34	$97.30	$128.38	$450.56	$196.79	$239.26

You might think royalty stocks won’t show similar gains going forward. It’s true they’ve already performed well. However, it’s more likely they’ll be wildly popular than anything else. That’s partly because there are only a few of them in this industry.

Now take a look at the prices our top silver pick would hit.

Silver Producer	Current Share Price	1976– 1980	1982– 1983	1986– 1987	1989– 1990	1993– 1994	2000– 2003	2005– 2008	2008– 2011
		554.2%	205.1%	141.8%	51.5%	99.9%	601.5%	206.4%	272.5%
Top BIG GOLD Silver Pick	$3.71	$24.27	$11.32	$8.97	$5.62	$7.42	$26.02	$11.37	$13.82

If silver rises along with gold in the next bull market—something we think is extremely likely—this small niche market will absolutely soar.

No other sector is as depressed as the mining sector. A return to anything close to some of the stronger past bull markets will hand us tremendous gains.

The June issue of BIG GOLD focuses on the top silver pick listed in the table. I’m convinced it will at least triple from current levels in the next precious metals bull market.

We have two very specific reasons why it will do so. And these two factors are unmatched by almost any other mid-tier or major producer.

Get our analysis along with the name of this stock in the just-released BIG GOLD.

We also include a special offer on bullion that has numismatic potential. These coins sell at bullion prices, yet will likely return much greater profit than standard bullion. And they come at discounted prices you won’t find elsewhere.

It’s “The Two Best Silver Plays to Buy Today”—a highly actionable issue that tells you exactly what to buy and why. Get it now.



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Mike Seerys Weekly Gold and Silver Futures Recap

Our trading partner Michael Seery is back with his weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Gold futures in the June contract are closing down $18 this Friday afternoon to settle around 1,176 an ounce hitting a 5 week low as I’m now recommending a short position while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,209 risking around $32 or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is solid at the current time.

Gold futures finished down about $25 for the trading week as all the action is back into the S&P 500 which is hitting all time highs once again this Friday afternoon as money is coming out all precious metals and into the equity market and that trend is going to continue as I’m recommending a bullish position in the equities at the current time as well.

Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend remains to the downside as the chart structure will not improve for another week or so but take advantage of any rallies as I think the risk/reward is your favor as the retest of 1,140 could be developing here in the next several weeks especially if the S&P 500 continues to move to the upside. The U.S dollar continues to consolidate its massive move to the upside and I think that will continue but I don’t see any reason to own gold at the current time.
Trend: Lower
Chart structure: Solid

Here's more calls from Mike on Oats. natural gas, coffee, corn, wheat, soybeans and more!

Silver futures in the July contract are down $.15 this Friday afternoon to close around 15.71 an ounce hitting a 5 week low as I have been recommending a short position when prices broke $16.00 and if you took that trade the chart structure has improved tremendously in the last several days so place your stop at 16.55 risking around $.80 or $800 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

The next level of support in silver is 15.50 and if that’s broken in next week’s trade I would have to think that a longer term bear market would be in place so continue to play this to the downside as the risk/reward is in your favor in my opinion. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as it has the classic bear market trend grinding lower on a daily basis as I do think volatility will increase.

Volatility is still relatively low as silver and gold futures were down Friday afternoon also hitting a 5 month low as the precious metals remain weak as the U.S dollar is still hovering around an 11 year high as I think a secular bullish trend in the dollar will continue for quite some time so continue to play silver to the downside.

Silver futures on the daily chart may have created a longer term head and shoulders top but as a trader I want to focus on risk as the chart structure will not improve until later next week as I see no reason to own the precious metals as all the action is back into the stock market as prices are hitting all time highs again today.
Trend: Lower
Chart structure: Solid

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Here's Why Gold Will Be Priceless in Three to Five Years

Over the next few years as debt, currencies and countries start to fall apart and individuals will be looking to place their money where it will hold its value and buying power during times of extreme uncertainty.

If you eliminate fiat currencies which are created out of this air and are nothing more than a credit we are left with precious metals and stones. As much as we have evolved over time, we could be valuing things like gold, silver, platinum, and precious stones more so than our currency.

Let’s face it, currencies are swinging in value 20-50% regularly and while most people do not realize it their buying power often is not as strong as it was. Would you rather hold a large portion of your capital in say the EURO which is falling like a rock in value costing you thousands of dollars a month, or would gold and silver which rises in value as your currency falls be a smarter decision?

Click Here to Read Chris Vermeulen's entire article and charts





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Why You Should Listen to This Man About Gold

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

Would you like your advice from someone who has been successful or from someone who’s failed? I’d prefer to hear from a winner.

Now that the gold market has been mauled by a bear, we can sort out the pretenders from the contenders in the mining industry. After all, there’s nothing like a major down cycle to reveal which companies are run by people who know how to prepare for bad weather.

The price of gold has fallen more than a third since August 2011, crushing the prices of gold stocks....but not all of them.

Check out the performance of Franco Nevada (FNV).

FNV shares have actually risen in this bear market. Even if you bought the stock when gold peaked in 2011, you’re sitting on a profit. How many gold stocks can make that claim?

Clearly Chairman Pierre Lassonde is doing something right. You might think it’s because royalty companies have performed better than producers in this time period, but the other royalty heavyweights—Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton—are down with most other stocks in the sector since gold’s 2011 peak.

Chairman Lassonde was one of the fathers of the royalty business model developed in 1985, so apparently he knew how to position his company to benefit from the financial pain most producers haven’t been able to avoid.

Watching and following an industry’s most successful players can pay off very well for investors. So what’s Pierre doing today?

Given the state of the gold market right now, he’s making a major call, one of the most consequential in his 40 year career. It’s a clear and very timely message for gold investors that you’ll be glad you received. He knows what he’s talking about. Join him along with Frank Holmes, Rick Rule, Bob Quartermain, Ron Netolitzky, Doug Casey, Louis James, and myself in our free webcast, “Going Vertical”. It’s a one hour event that is well worth your time.

The article Why You Should Listen to This Man About Gold was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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Going Vertical.....Our Next Online Event

There are again signs on the horizon that the next gold bull market may not be far off.

On February 11, Bloomberg reported, “Gold producers with cash on hand are on the hunt for cheap mining assets as rising prices drive shares higher.” $2.7 billion in deals have already been announced or completed year to date—compared to a total of $10.5 billion in 2014.

Private equity firms (the “smart money”) are circling the mining industry for great deals. GDX, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, currently has an aggregate price to book ratio of 1.06, while its little brother, the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), trades at 76% of book value.

A stronger US dollar and falling oil prices are presenting two deflationary forces that are good for gold. The last two times oil dropped more than 50% in one year—1986 and 2008—gold rallied over 25% the following year.

Here's our video primer for this weeks event "Are you Going to Buy Low and Sell High this Time Around"

Investors are waking up to the fact that gold is rallying. Among the top 10 non leveraged ETFs are five gold miners ETFs. As of early February, investors had already poured $885.4 million in new assets into GDX—one of the best results among sector ETFs—and GDXJ attracted nearly $226 million.

No one can say for sure if this is the beginning of the next gold bull market. However, what is clear is that once the bull market does get started, the best of the best gold stocks will go vertical.

Successful gold producers may go up 150-200%. But the top ranked junior miners—the companies with quality management and great assets will take a moonshot. 500%, 1,000%, and more is not out of the question.

Casey Research’s free online event GOING VERTICAL aims to help investors understand where we are in the gold cycle, what to expect, and how to prepare their portfolio so they have a real shot at the jackpot when gold rises again.

Just Click Here to Reserve Your Spot

Eight industry stars discuss the most pressing issues of the day......

Pierre Lassonde, cofounder and chairman of Franco-Nevada
Rick Rule, founder and chairman of Sprott Global Resource Investments
Ron Netolitzky, chairman and director of Aben Resources
Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research
Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors
Bob Quartermain, president, CEO, and director of Pretium Resources
and Casey Research precious metals experts Louis James and Jeff Clark.

Topics they will talk about in GOING VERTICAL include: 2015 outlook on the gold market; up, down, or sideways?—What to expect from gold’s next leg up, and how even stocks that have dropped 75% or more can come back with a vengeance—How to make money on junior miners even in the midst of a downturn—Which country may end up controlling the price of gold and what that means for investors—4 signs that a bear market is turning into a bull market—Which types of companies institutional investors will flock to first when gold goes up, and how to “front run” them—3 reasons why the best gold producers might double when the gold sector recovers—and much more.

Also, some of the experts talk about their favorite gold and silver companies, naming names—and Louis James reveals one of his favorite junior mining stock with vertical potential.

Register now to watch the event on Tuesday, March 10, 2:00 p.m. EDT. Even if you know you can’t make it at that time, register anyway that way you’ll get an email with a link to the video recording after the event and can watch it at your leisure.

Click Here to Learn More and Register

See you on Tuesday,
The Gold ETF Trader



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It's Time for Mike Seerys Weekly Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Gold futures in the April contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling last Friday at 1,213 while trading at 1,172 down $22 this Friday afternoon as the monthly unemployment report was construed as bullish sending gold to a 9 week low.

The U.S dollar is hitting another contract high up 110 points putting pressure on the precious metals as I'm currently recommending a short position in the mini contract which is $33 for every dollar move while placing your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands 1,223 risking around 50 points or $1800 per contract plus slippage and commission.

In my opinion I believe the U.S dollar will continue its bullish trend and therefore should continue putting bearish pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as the next level of support is at 1,165 and if that is breached I think that we test the contract low around 1,130 so continue to play this to the downside as the chart structure will start to improve later next week tightening the stop and reducing monetary risk.

Many of the commodity and stock markets were lower today due to the fact that United States treasury bonds plummeted this afternoon sending yields higher as now the speculation is that the Federal Reserve will start to raise rates in June which is another pessimistic fundamental indicator towards gold prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Silver futures in the May contract are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average down about $.30 this Friday afternoon trading at 15.85 an ounce settling last Friday at 16.56 down around 70 cents for the trading week hitting a 9 week low as the U.S dollar is sharply higher once again. I am currently recommending a short position in silver in the mini contract which is $10 for every cent while placing your stop loss above the 10 day high around 16.90 risking around a $1.00 or $1,000 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The U.S dollar is the reason to blame for silvers weakness in today’s trade as I do believe commodity prices as a whole continue to move lower in the short time as the dollar looks to possibly hit 100 so continue to play this to the downside as the next major level of support is 15.50 which was hit on many different occasions only to rally every single time, however if that’s broken you would have to think that the bear market would resume.

The trend is your friend in the commodity markets and the trend is to downside at the current time however if you disagree with my opinion and you think prices are going higher my recommendation would be to buy at today’s price while placing the stop loss below 15.50 risking $.35 or $350 per mini contract plus slippage and commission, however I am currently recommending a short position in silver as prices look to retest contract lows in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid


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Weekly Gold and Silver Market Recap with Mike Seery for Week Ending Friday February 27th

It's time for our trading partner Mike Seery to give us his weekly call on commodities [including where to place your stops] and especially coffee and sugar. Mike has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Gold futures in the April contract are currently trading at 1,212 up around $3 an ounce while settling last Friday at 1,205 finishing up $7 in a relatively quiet trading week. Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I do think gold is now being used as a currency due to the fact that the Euro currency and many foreign currencies are absolutely falling out of bed as interest rates in many countries have gone negative so who wants to place money into a bank and lose money as investors are looking at gold which has no dividend but still it’s better than a negative return.

Volatility in many of the commodity markets is very high at the current time especially the precious metals and I expect that to continue despite the fact that the U.S dollar hit an 11 year high continuing its secular bull market in my opinion as I do think 100 is on its way in the next several months as the United States economy is doing much better than any economy worldwide. Gold futures have rallied from a contract low of 1,130 all the way up to about 1,310 in the last several months as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as money is moving back into the S&P 500 sending prices to all time highs as I don’t see any reason to own gold despite all of the worldwide problems.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Silver futures in the May contract are up $.5 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 16.66 an ounce settling last Friday at 16.32 finishing up about 40 cents for the trading week with extreme volatility so make sure that you use the proper amount of contracts risking only 2% of your account balance as I like to trade the mini contract which is $10 a cent versus $50 a cent on the large contract as high volatility has also entered the S&P 500 and the currency markets in recent weeks.

As I talked about in previous blogs I believe silver is now being used as a currency due to the fact that interest rates around the world are so low that investors are looking at silver as a currency replacing traditional paper currencies as nobody wants to own anything in Europe. Many of the commodity markets continue to head lower however silver remains choppy at the current time as I am still recommending investors to sit on the sidelines and wait for a trend to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid


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Free Webinar: How You Generate Consistent Trading Results in Today's Markets

Our trading partner John Carter is back this Tuesday February 24th with another one of his wildly popular free trading webinars. This time John will be covering his trading strategy using "premium decay".

If you have attended one of John's free webinars you know that he has a unique ability to give traders that "over his shoulder" view of how he performs these trades making it very easy to understand.

Best thing of all though, he shows us how this can be done in any size account. Limiting brokerage fees so we can make money even in small accounts.

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In this free webinar John will discuss....

  *  Why trading options are perfect for newbies, retirees, part time traders, and full time traders

  *  Why options are safer than trading stocks, futures or forex while holding on for bigger winners

  *  One strategy he uses for consistent trading results that you can use the next trading day

  *  The brain dead rules to follow so you can know exactly how to trade this one set up for consistency

  *  How traders get sucked into buying the wrong stocks at the wrong price so you never get suckered into a trade again

      And much more….

Johns webinars are highly attended and usually have a waiting list at start time. Get your seat now then make sure you log in 10-15 minutes early on Tuesday evening to make sure you keep that seat.

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John has provided a great free video primer for this webinar.....Watch it Now

See you Tuesday!
Ray @ the Gold ETF Trader



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Weekly Gold and Silver Market Recap with Mike Seery for Week Ending February 20th

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,227 while currently at 1,207 down about $20 for the trading week still trading below their 20 & 100 moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as prices have hit a 6 week low. I am currently sitting on the sidelines awaiting better chart structure to develop as investors continue to put money into the equity market as gold seems to be entering into a bearish trend once again in my opinion.

The next level of major support is around the 1,180 level and if that level is broken I would have think that a retest of the contract low which was hit in early November 2014 could be in the cards so keep a close eye on this trade because a trade could be coming if chart structure improves and that could happen next week.

Problems around the world seem to be out of the lime light at the current time as I don’t see any real reason to own gold as I remain bullish the S&P 500 as the U.S dollar continues to hover around 11 year highs as I think the dollar is in a secular bull market for some time to come as Europe’s economy is not as strong as the United States as that’s also a negative fundamental influence on gold prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average continuing its bearish trend hitting a 6 week low as I am currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop. Silver prices settled last Friday around 17.30 while currently trading at 16.35 down about 95 cents for the trading week as the trend still remains choppy in my opinion.

Silver prices topped out around the 18.50 level last month as we might be on the sidelines for some time as I would like to see lower volatility as well as a possible retest of 15.50 could be underway and if you are bearish silver prices my recommendation would be to sell at today’s price while placing your stop loss at the 10 day high of 17.40 risking around $1,100 per mini contract plus slippage and commission however I am watching this market at the current time.
Trend: Choppy
Chart Structure: OK

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Simple Strategy Alert: Premium Decay

We all think we know what premium decay is right? Well, I thought I knew how it worked until I watched this new video from our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options. I never knew just how powerful and simple it was to apply knowledge of the decay principal to trading options.

Basically it's a way to insure the health of your portfolio even in an unhealthy market.

In this free video John shows us a simple and effective strategy for using premium decay, but he also shows you his strategy to make money on a stock whether it's going up or down.

Watch His Free Video Here

Here's a sample of what John will share with us.....

  *  How to “control” stocks for a fraction of the price so you don’t risk all your capital - How you can
      generate consistent returns being dead wrong

  *  What “premium decay” is and how you can use to it to give yourself an edge in trading

  *  How you can set up occasional home run trades while generating consistent returns

  *  A handful of the key stocks I look at every day so you don’t go bug eyed looking for stocks to trade


Don't miss the game changing video "Simple Strategy Alert: Premium Decay"....Watch Video Now

John Carter has become well known for his wildly popular free options trading webinars and his free options trading eBook that changed the way traders looked at options trading in 2014.

Download the free eBook Here, While you still can!

Weekly Gold and Silver Markets Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold futures in the April contract are up $13 this afternoon in New York currently trading at $1,233 an ounce after settling last Friday around $1,235 basically unchanged for the trading week still right near 4 week lows is I’m recommending investors to sit on the sidelines in this market as the trend is currently mixed. Gold futures are trading below their 20 but just barely above their 100 day moving average as the S&P 500 had a terrific week as the Dow Jones cracked 18,000 to the upside as that’s where the interest lies currently as the next major level of support is between $1,180 – $1,220 but sit on the sidelines as the chart structure is absolutely terrible at the current time.

If you have followed any of my previous blogs I constantly stress the fact to avoid markets that are choppy as I think the success rate is very low unless you are some type of day trader but I hold positions overnight so look for another market that is beginning to trend and keep an eye on gold as I don’t think we will be trading this market for quite some time. The U.S dollar is still right near 11 year high and that’s always pessimistic commodities in general especially the precious metals but at the current time I just don’t have an opinion on this market as I think we will chop around in the short term.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the March contract are up $.55 this afternoon still trading below their 20 but above their 100 day moving average telling you this trend is mixed as I’m also advising traders to sit on the sidelines in this market as we were stopped out at the 2 week low around 16.71 last Friday as this market remains extremely volatile but prices continue to move sideways. Silver prices settled last Friday at 16.70 currently trading at 17.35 up about $.65 an impressive week in my opinion as many of the commodity markets are sharply higher today due to the fact that crude oil is up another $2 which is beneficial and supportive to many commodity prices thinking that the giant bear markets might be finished.

As a trader I’m always looking for a breakout but at the current time silver looks like it’s in a bottoming pattern in my opinion with no breakout occurring as the real level that you want to look at is 18.50 if prices break above that level I would be recommending a bullish position but at the current time the chart structure is poor so look elsewhere. The one bullish fundamental reason for silver to move higher is the fact that it’s used in electronic components and that business is going to be here for a long time to come so theirs actual demand for silver unlike gold which is just primary used in jewelry as the electronic market should get larger and grow exponentially over the next 10/20 years in my opinion.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Weekly Gold and Silver Futures Recap with Mike Seery

It's time for our weekly commodity futures recap with our trading partner Mike Seery. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. And frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold futures in the April contract are currently trading at 1,277 up around $21 an ounce with extreme volatility after selling off more than $30 in Thursday’s trade while settling last Friday at 1,293 going out this Friday afternoon around 1,276 finishing down $17 in a wild trading week. Gold futures topped out slightly above $1,300 as profit taking ensued as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average and I’m still recommending a bullish position and if you took that original trade place your stop loss below the 10 day low which now yesterday’s low at 1,252 risking around $24 from today’s price levels or $2,400 risk per contract plus slippage and commission.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I do think gold is now being used as a currency due to the fact that the Euro currency and many foreign currencies are absolutely falling out of bed as interest rates in many countries have gone negative so who wants to place money into a bank and lose money as investors now prefer gold which has no dividend but still it’s better than a negative return. Volatility in many of the commodity markets is very high at the current time especially the precious metals and I expect that to continue despite the fact that the U.S dollar hit an 11 year high continuing its secular bull market in my opinion as I do think 100 is on its way in the next several months as the United States economy is doing much better than any economy worldwide.

Gold futures have rallied from a contract low of 1,130 all the way up to about 1,310 in the last several months as money is finally starting to come out of the S&P 500 sending money flows back into the precious metals also sending high volatility which I think is here to stay especially with all of the worldwide problems
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

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Silver futures in the March contract are up $.50 this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 17.30 an ounce settling last Friday at 18.30 finishing down about $1.00 for the trading week with extreme volatility as Thursday’s trade pushed silver lower by over a $1.25 as I’ve been recommending a bullish position in this market when prices broke above the 17 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss below yesterday’s low around 16.71 still risking around $.60 from today’s price levels.

Silver volatility is extremely high at the current time so make sure that you use the proper amount of contracts risking only 2% of your account balance as I like to trade the mini contract which is $10 a cent versus $50 a cent on the large contract as high volatility has also entered the S&P 500 and the currency markets in recent weeks.

The stop loss will remain at that level for the next 8 trading sessions so you’re going to have to be patient if you are long this market. As I talked about in previous blogs I believe silver is now being used as a currency due to the fact that interest rates around the world are so low that investors are looking at silver and gold as a currency replacing traditional paper currencies as nobody wants to own anything in Europe.

Many of the commodity markets continue to head lower however silver and gold are the only 2 commodities that I am bullish but the problem here is if the rest of the markets continue to head lower silver and gold gains could be limited so just place the proper stop loss and if we are stopped out look at another market that is starting to begin another trend.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Solid

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Mike Seerys Trading 101...."When Do You Enter A Trade"

What are your rules to initiate a trade on the long or short side of the commodity market? I have been asked this question many times throughout my career and my opinion is simply to buy on a 20-25 day high breakout in price on a closing basis only or sell on a 20-25 day low breakout to the downside also on a closing basis. Many times the price will break the 25 day high and sell off later in the day only to have your trade be negative very quickly.

I would rather buy the commodity at a higher price on the close because that gives me more confidence that the market has truly broken out. However there are more ways to skin a cat and this is not the only answer because some other trading systems might rely on different breakout rules that have also been reliable.

Remember always keeping a 1%-2% risk loss on any given trade therefore minimizing risks because the entry system I use always goes with the trend because I have learned over the course of time the trend is truly your friend in the long run. I also look for tight chart structure meaning a tight trading range over a period of time with relatively low volatility. I try to stay away from a crazy market that hit a 25 day high in 2 trading sessions versus the 25 high that actually took 25 days to create.

Get more of Mikes calls for this week including silver, wheat, oats, coffee and more....Just Click Here!

Free Video Series: Enjoy all of John Carters Options Videos.....Before it's to Late

In 2014 our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options changed the way traders look at trading options with his free and easy to understand videos and webinars that taught all of us how to put his methods to work.

In February John is preparing to do it all again by bringing us a new series and most likely all of his current videos will be taken offline. So we want to make sure you get to watch them all while you can.

Just click on the titles to access videos......

    My Favorite ways to Trade Options on ETF’s

    What the Market Makers Don’t Want You to Know

    High Frequency Trading….the effect the Rise of the Machines has on ...

    What's Behind the BIG Trade, How to Grow a Small Account into a Big...

Make sure to also get John's free eBook "Understanding Options" > Just Click Here

See you in the markets!

Ray C. Parrish

aka the Crude Oil Trader

Weekly Gold and Silver Market Recap with Mike Seery for Week Ending January 23rd

Our trading partner Mike Seery is back with his weekly futures market recap. As always he includes where he is placing stops to lock in profits we have all been enjoying if you have been following Mike this year.

Gold futures in the February contract are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday in New York at 1,277 while currently trading at 1,288 an ounce down about $12 this afternoon as I have been recommending a bullish position when prices cracked 1,245 and if you took that trade place your stop at the 10 day low which in Monday’s trade will be 1,217 still risking about $70 or $7,000 per contract plus slippage and commission, however the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week.

Gold prices hit a 5 month high this week and now is being considered as a currency and not a commodity as nobody wants to own any of the foreign currencies especially the Euro currency which was down another 100 points today sending the U.S dollar to an 11 year high as countries like Yemen are collapsing right in front of our eyes and many other countries are getting crushed by the low crude oil prices so investors are seeking a safe haven in gold despite today’s negative tape.

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Silver futures in the March contract are slightly lower this Friday afternoon in New York after settling last week at 17.75 while currently trading at 18.30 up around $.50 for the trading week continuing its bullish trend as prices are trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average hitting a 4 month high as investors are fleeing out of the foreign currencies and putting money back into the precious metals at the current time.

I’ve been recommending a bullish position in silver for several weeks when prices broke above 17.00 an ounce and if you took that trade make sure you place your stop loss below the 10 day low which currently stands at 16.43 currently risking around $2 or $10,000 per contract plus slippage and commission as silver is very large contract controlling 5,000 ounces, however that stop loss will be raised on a daily basis as the chart structure will improve dramatically come next week.

Silver is now considered as a currency in my opinion and not a commodity as nobody wants to own any currencies except for the U.S dollar sending money flows back into the precious metals as I think silver prices could test $20 here in the short term as I’m very pessimistic many of the commodity sectors except for silver and gold at the current time as I think prices continue to climb despite what the U.S dollar does as short term demand has certainly come back into this market in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

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Weekly Gold and Silver Futures Recap with Mike Seery

Our trading partner Mike Seery is out with his calls for this week and he includes some of reliable rules to protect our profits.

Gold futures in the February contract are slightly lower this Friday afternoon in New York after settling last Friday at 1,216 currently trading at 1,260 as I’m currently recommending a long futures position while placing your stop loss below the 10 day low which is around 1,209 risking around $50 or $1,650 on a mini contract plus slippage and commission. Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 5 month high as the chart structure will also start to improve on a daily basis starting next week as the market has caught fire recently due to worldwide problems as money is pouring back into the precious metals and out of the S&P 500 in the beginning of 2015.

Yesterday the Swiss government announced they will let the Swiss Franc float rocketing that currency up while sending shock waves through the bond and currency markets and it certainly looks to me that problems are here to stay here for a while as Europe is a mess and this could push gold up to the next resistance level of 1,300 – 1,320 so take advantage of any price dip while maintaining the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as gold has finally turned into a short-term bull market once again.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Improving

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Silver futures are trading above their 20 day but right at their 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 16.12 while currently trading at 17.05 an ounce as I’m recommending a bullish position in silver while placing your stop below the 10 day low which is at 16.11 risking around $.90 or $4,500 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure will also improve on a daily basis starting next week. The next major level of resistance is between 17.35 – 17.50 and if that level is broken I would have to think that silver prices have a chance to reach $20 here in the short term as once again money is flowing into the precious metals and out of the stock market for the 1st time in several years as investors are thinking that silver may have been overdone to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets continue to head lower as there is weak demand throughout many sectors due to the fact that the U.S dollar is at a 9 year high while silver & gold prices have also been in bearish trends until recently, however with what’s going on in France and Isis running havoc throughout the Mideast people are finally looking at the precious metals as a safe haven once again so the rest of the commodity markets can go lower with gold and silver still moving higher but play by the rules as the chart structure meets criteria in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Improving

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